» sleepers

Good Morning and Happy Easter & After-Passover to you all. I hope you all got to read my last post: NL East Projections/Previews. I’ll be blogging mostly about the NL East in General, The New York Mets along with site creator Jeff Gross, as well as Fantasy Baseball – projections you may want, strategies, sleepers, and more. Feel free to ask questions, comment, or criticize. My next post will be about Free Agent Strategy – mainly if there are waiver move restrictions like most of my leagues had for me because of my activity. That will come tomorrow afternoon, Monday April 13th. In addition, I’ll have something funny for your philadelphia phillies fans regarding their famous restaurant across the street from their stadium.

My name is Daniel Schwartz, and I currently live in Minnesota. So I like to think I’m omniscient when it comes to the Mets, the NL East, and the Minnesota Twins, but I am an extremely passionate baseball fan, and a fantasy baseball guru. Again, feel free to ask me whatever you want regarding baseball – whether it be the Mets, the NL East, the Twins, and Fantasy baseball – along with our fellow Major League Team Specific Bloggers.

C- Pablo Sandoval

Many wonder if his power stroke displayed in the spring will carry over to the regular season.  With catcher eligibility in many leagues and hitting in the heart of the order, I’m a firm believer in his power and think he could well exceed his projections.

1B- Joey Votto

With an OPS of about 1.000 in the second half of 2008, he shows all capabilities of making the elite jump.  His plate discipline looks promising and he has a fulfilling power/speed combo.  Expect a .300 Avg, 24-27 homeruns, and 10 steals.

2B- Ian Stewart

This guy brings a plethora of fantasy upside that screams Chase Utley from 2005.  He can do a little bit of everything and is currently projected to get 400-500 ABs.  He’ll soon be eligible at three different positions and there are just too many possibilities that could make him an everyday player between Helton’s injury-plagued history, an imminent Atkins trade, or Barmes/Smith underperforming.  It wouldn’t take an enormous amount of luck for the 23 year old to supply similar value from the 2B spot to B. Phillips or A. Ramirez.

3B- Alex Gordon

He lowered his strikeout total in 2008 and showed a power increase in the second half.  If his offseason regiment successfully assists him in figuring out southpaws and boosting his fly ball rate, we’re looking at a ceiling of 28-30 homeruns with a .280 average.

SS- Stephen Drew

A second half comparable to Hanley Ramirez where he had a .950 OPS makes him a rarity at middle infield.  Batting third for the Dbacks in 2009, expect solid numbers across the board with a few steals this time.

OF- Corey Hart

He’s almost a lock for another 20/20 season, with 30/30 still in reach.  Hart is slugging at about a .800 clip this spring, which statistician John Dewan would say is a useful future indicator.

OF- Nelson Cruz

Right now he is projected to bat cleanup for the Rangers against southpaws and 5th against righties.  Either spot is incredibly conducive for RBIs in Texas.  After seeing him continue his September dominance in the spring, expect a 27/15 type of year for Cruz.

OF- Adam Jones

With a full major league season under his belt, this year we’ll see his real power.  I’d say 20/20 is feasible for Jones.

SP- Kevin Slowey

He dominates with control, walking just 24 batters over 160.1 innings in 2008.  His strikeout rate won’t kill you, and it’s way up this spring.  He could be the ace of the staff come July.

SP- Johnny Cueto

Even Edinson Volquez said Cueto was better.  Cueto’s major league K rate and minor league peripherals are in support of this.

SP- Clayton Kershaw

Month by month his walk rate improved last year while fanning 

almost a batter per inning.  He’s still only 21 and very raw but could still make the leap this year.

SP- Jonathan Sanchez

Being known for his ability to make hitters miss, a Kazmir-like breakout awaits him if he lowers his walk total this year or the next.  Guess what, his K/BB ratio in the spring is 15:2.

RP- Frank Francisco

If he stays healthy he’ll get plenty of strikeouts and saves, while he has no remote threats that could seize the job.

RP- Chris Ray

Expect him to take Sherrill’s job by the end of April.  Sherrill has even stated publicly that he doesn’t mind Ray closing after his less than dominant spring.  And one more thing, Ray’s velocity in the spring is reportedly higher than it was pre-surgery.

Yesterday was my annual competitive fantasy league draft I had with a few college buddies of mine. 

League Setup: 12 Teams, Head to Head, Weekly Updated

Settings: C, 1B , 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, Bench, Bench, Bench, Bench

Categories: HR, RBIs, Runs, SBs, BB, OBP, AVG, SLG, 3B, Hits, Wins, Losses, ERA, WHIP, Ks, K/9, QS, Svs, Sv Opps, IP

It’s important to note these categories for the most part mirror the default 5X5 settings (adjusted for walks) and then duplicate them in a 10X10 format.  They’ve worked for a number of years and I’d recommend them for any league.  What’s good about this is the original weightings from the standard scoring scoring system are kept intact.

Here we go… I had Pick # 8

1) C. Utley 2B- It was a decision between Chase Utley and Ryan Braun that I lost sleep over the night before.  Positional scarcity was a major factor in my pick as well as Utley helping me across the boards.  I did not want to be stuck with two outfielders in the first 2 rounds as well if Berkman by chance didn’t fall to me (which he did not).                      

2) B. Upton OF- With a repaired shoulder Upton has 25/40 upside in 2009.  Whether batting first, third, or fourth he will be a solid producer in every category.  97 walks last year looks promising as well.

3) J. Morneau 1B- Morneau hit 30 jacks in 2 of his last three seasons and is a solid buy-low candidate.  I was happy he fell to me because I didn’t want more than one outfielder early, predicting I would be a recipient of bargains later in this draft.  At age 27, Morneau’s K/BB ratio dramatic improvement in 2008 coupled with laser eye surgery points to a big bounce back year.

4) R. Halladay SP- Being one of the consensus top 5 starting pitchers, Halladay brought really good value here in the mid 4th in a league where pitchers are overvalued.  Halladay’s injury qualms are behind him, and he has a WHIP that serves as a great foundation for a starting staff.  Having many high strikeout sleepers, it was important for me to establish ERA/WHIP early in the draft.

5) C. Davis 1B/3B- This was a no brainer after Chipper Jones went off the board two picks earlier.  Already having a solid OBP built up with my top 3, I can afford the swings and misses Davis will have this year.  With a full season in Texas, I project about 33 homeruns with a .275-.280 average and solid RBIs from this sleeper pick.

6) V. Guerrero OF- After considering him in the 4th round, all I have to say is wow.  His knees feel better in the spring and he remains a 27-30 homerun talent with great RBI potential in 150+ games.  Don’t forget he’s a career .323 hitter and I expect a good OBP from the matured slugger as well.

7) S. Drew SS- After the second tier of pitching went with John Lackey being taken two picks earlier it was time to further solidify my offense.  I realized teams 8 through 12 didn’t have a shortstop and I’m not a huge fan of Tulo or Jeter.  While taking Drew I knew a third tier pitcher would still be there in the 8th round.  It is notable that Drew slugged over .500 last year which is rare for a middle infielder.  I am fine with his baseline of about .282/17 jacks in 2009 but any continuation of last year’s second half dominance (.950 OPS) is just an added bonus.

8 ) C. Lee SP- Sharpened command, increased velocity, and a K/BB ratio of 5:1 doesn’t happen out of the blue.  I expect more homeruns per fly balls, but also about a 3.60 ERA and consistently solid numbers across the board.

9) C. Hart OF- I considered Hart, whose ADP is in the low 50’s, in the seventh round but got a steal in the ninth.  He’s young and still has 30/30 upside while it’s worth mentioning his .900+ slugging percentage in the spring.  In a young potent lineup I expect a higher OBP from Hart and assistance in eight out of ten categories.

10) J. Chamberlain SP/RP-  I was pleased to see Chamberlain available in the tenth round who has one of the highest talent ceilings in baseball.  He almost perfectly supplements my great WHIP core with his K/9 of well over 9.

11) R. Ibanez OF- One of my prized sleepers.  Ibanez is one of the most consistent producers in fantasy sports.  Never being in a great lineup and never playing in a hitter’s park or the National League are reasons why I love this guy.  His health and stability compliments my two somewhat risky outfielders.

12) M. Capps RP- I love this pick considering the top and middle tier closers went off the board in the six to ninth rounds.  Capps only walked five guys last year, has no risk of losing the job, and will further show why projected low win teams harvesting low save totals is a mythical idea.

13) D. Lowe SP- I was between Lowe and Harang at this pick.  He’s an ugly pick but is consistently a top 25-30 pitcher.  Expect about a 3.65 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP.

14) H. Bell RP- Being another underrated closer like Capps, Bell also has no real threat behind him.  30 saves with solid peripherals, thank you.

15) C. Carpenter SP- I consider myself to have perhaps the best No. 5 SP in the league with Carpenter, and so far he’s hurled 19 innings in the spring without yielding an earned run.  Carpenter is a top 20 pitcher when healthy.  With Chamberlain and Carpenter my starting staff shines with upside, supplementing what is arguably the best offense in the league.

16) W. Rodriguez SP- A great filler for my 6th SP is Wandy, whose home/road splits seem to be a thing of the past.  I’ll take his K/BB of 3 and K/9 of about 8 with positive three-year trends ala Paul Maholm.

17) J. Zimmerman SP- This was probably my first significant reach of the draft, but how can you ignore a stud who’s fanning major league hitters at a rate of about 1.5 per IP in the spring.  I expect him to be delegated to the No. 4 or 5 role out of the gate this year, and without any Triple-A experience a Verlander-like rookie year is not out of reach.

18) B. Molina C- Alike Derek Lowe, he is consistently underrated.  Batting in the middle of the order he will approach .280/17 and 95 RBIs again this year.

19) C. Ray RP- Sherrill’s ERA approached 8 in the second half of 2008 and his struggles and bad peripherals have followed him into the spring.  It will be a matter of weeks before Ray regains the closer role from an out of shape George Sherrill.

20) J. Sanchez SP- With a K per 9 hovering around 9, he was a steal for me here.  Already solidifying my WHIP and ERA with Halladay, Lee, Lowe, and Carpenter, I can afford the worst-case scenario hit Sanchez will give my staff.  Not to mention he is my No. 8 SP and is projected by several sources to have a Kazmir-like breakout either this year or the next.  The spring and the WBC points to an improvement in control while it is only a matter of time before he reduces his big league walk total.

21) M. Bradley OF- Another steal that shouldn’t have been here even if it wasn’t an OBP league.  His injury-plagued nature is less relevant being my fifth outfielder.

22) C. Villanueva SP/RP- Hoffman experienced a giant spike in homeruns allowed in 2008 and his age scares me.  He is no longer in Petco, and is suffering from a lingering oblique strain in the spring.  Villanueva is my favorite to take the job.

So what do you guys think?