» Seattle Mariners

Over at U.S.S. Mariner, Dave Cameron meditates on Russell Branyan and his refusal to regress to his mean performance. Branyan, who is the best off-season acquisition in baseball on a cost-to-returns basis ($1.4 million this year for .317 avg, 14 HR, .414 OBP and .614 SLG), has seen his batting average decline from .333 in April to .290 in June. However, he’s been rock steady in on-base and slugging percentages because he’s reduced the number of times he strikes out and increased his walk rate to compensate.

The Mariners did not pursue Raul Ibañez, who is having a career year in Philadelphia with 21 HR, .322 avg., .377 OBP and .674 SLG. But Raul is earning $7.2 million this year, more than five times Branyan’s salary. The only categories where Ibañez leads Branyan, home runs (21 v. 14) and RBIs (58 v. 29, which accounts for Raul’s higher slugging percentage, as well) are functions of the batters around them in their respective lineups. Branyan, batting in the two-hole these days, has had fewer opportunities to drive in runs while Ibañez is batting behind Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and is followed by Jason Werth. The Phillies are paying a premium up and down its batting order on which Ibañez is cashing in.

Branyan is delivering more for the money. With this salary and a one-year deal, he’s pretty certain to be trade bait this June and July.

IN OTHER NEWS: Down in the minors, 3B Alex Liddi of the High Desert Mavericks (Hi-A), who played for Italy in the WBC, is tearing the cover off the ball. In 57 games, 234 at-bats, he’s got 15 home runs, 56 RBIs, .333 avg. and .628 SLG. Someone to watch.

It is difficult to blog about the Seattle Mariners, because the team is like a bug stuck in amber. Sometimes, when you turn it in the light it is beautiful and fun to watch. At others, it is a bug, stuck in time. The 8-run comeback yesterday by the Angels, just when the Mariners were poised to sweep LA and drive the predicted leader of the AL West to .500, Seattle melted down.

Now, the M’s head into June playing .471 ball, 24 – 27, the two catalysts for change available to the club are the draft and the trade market. Both offer solid options, especially if Seattle and its fans don’t get distracted by the fact that Stephen Strasbourg will land with the Nationals—the Scott Boras client is not a lock for greatness, as Rick Ankiel, another pitcher that couldn’t lose, proved a decade ago, before Ankiel stopped pitching, had his shoulder rebuilt and learned to play outfield. Consider this statement about Strasbourg: “not since Mark Prior has there been this kind of buzz about an amateur pitcher.” I agree with John Hickey, Strasbourg going to the Nationals is not the M’s great loss.

In fact, I’d like to see Seattle focus on offense in the draft and deal with its pitching needs—three starters and middle relief, since the M’s have Chad Cordero tucked away—through trades. Dustin Ackley, a solid defensive center fielder from the University of North Carolina who hits well, has speed and a surgically repaired elbow, is anticipated to be the first hitter taken in the draft, and he’d be a good fit with the team in a couple years. Because the Mariners also have Carlos Truinfel, an outstanding shortstop prospect who recently had surgery, the team may also want to take a pass on USC’s Grant Green, a toolsy defender with a good batting eye who needs to develop a bit more power to justify the Evan Longoria comparisons I’ve read. 

Seattle should stay away from High School picks this time around, as it needs to see results sooner rather than later, and because the best prep offensive player, Donavan Tate out of Georgia, described here, along with other top prep prospects, will probably end up playing football and baseball in college. Let other teams waste picks on these guys, let these guys go to college. 

On the trade front, Adrian Beltre, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez, Wladimir Balentien, Russell Branyan, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Chris Jakubauskas and Garret Olson should all be considered trade material, for which Jack Zduriencik should consider pitching prospects. He’s shown a good eye in player development over the years, and the Branyan signing has turned into a solid decision that he can exploit, if needed, to bring young arms to Seattle.

But something has to change, because the current state of affairs is too predictably mediocre, largely because the team is still a strong reflection of the Bavasi years. More change will create more opportunities for improvement, for the team that has started to emerge on the field to shift its center to players with the greatest drive to win.

Adrian Beltre, who I suspect is injured, because he is not moving down the baseline with any speed this year, will ride the bench in Moday’s game versus the Angels and two-pitches-and-yer-ejected John Lackey. Beltre has also shown very poor timing on pitches. If anything, his batting eye is getting worse with each passing week.

Being benched did some good for Yuniesky Betancourt last week, who has raised his average by more than 10 points during the past 10 games, but Beltre doesn’t look like he needs encouragement, he looks like he just doesn’t have any presence at the plate. He’s sitting on a .211 average for the season, more than 50 points below last year’s full-season number, when he was playing hurt. The bottom line, though, is that it shouldn’t take a benching to get a major league player on track.

Yesterday’s walk-off win over the Red Sox showed Jason Vargas has some staying power, that Mark Lowe is potentially the closer of the future after all (with David Aardsma in the 8th), and that the bottom of the order can deliver a clutch win. All good signs. Right now, the M’s are being held back by slumping bats in the middle of the order.

Russell Branyan is the best free-agent signing, on a price/performance basis, of the winter. The M’s may have passed on Raul Ibañez, who is tearing up pitchers for the Phillies, but Branyan is delivering huge returns on his much lower salary.

Ichiro's move to second

The “new look Seattle Mariners” are a hell of a lot better than the old Mariners. Surprisingly, some of the bad old Mariners, such as Jarrod Washburn, who pitches tonight against Andy Sonnanstine and the Tampa Bay Rays, are showing signs of renewed Major League skills at 2—0 and a .180 ERA on the season. Pitching, however, isn’t the mainspring of Wakball, the game this new Mariners team is playing. The essence of the new style, though, is a kind of small ball that you don’t even see in the National League anymore.

As U.S.S. Mariner pointed out the other day, Don Wakamatsu likes to bunt. The bunt has also come back to bite the Mariners over the weekend, when Detroit countered with its own small ball game. Rule One of Successful Wakball, then, might be “If you bunt, you’d better be able to field a bunt, too.” Bunting, though, is just part of the new game, even if the M’s are currently on track to double or triple the average number of bunts by a team during the year. The team’s continuing defensive development is critical to continuing its early success. 

After watching Yuniesky Betancourt bobble two easy grounders on Sunday, I want to know when Wak and GM Jack Zduriencik are going to make a move to fix the awful hole that has developed between third and second bases. His bat is slightly better than last year, but his defense is downgraded. Time for a change. Would Matt Tuiasosopo be able to move to Shortstop?

Second, Wakball is defined by moving the runner along. Franklin Gutierrez exists to move up a base or to move a runner along. His batting average is .237, which is way up over the weekend, but his Slugging Percentage is .395, which means he’s contributing more than twice as many bases to the team’s progress than times he is getting a hit. Endy Chavez, who has far exceeded his expected production through the first 13 games, is delivering hits (20) with an excellent .293 batting average, but he’s also stealing bases (4) and has a good, though not great, slugging percentage of .471.

But the new ballgame ends there. On a stat-by-stat basis, the Mariners do not stand out in any offensive category. The surprising pitching performances so far this year have given the Mariners the advantage more often than not. My “five runs will win” rule, laid out here, has held true in all but two games in which the team has scored five runs (two of the games in Minnesota), because Seattle pitching has held up so well. Tonight’s Washburn outing will be a keystone to the first half of the season. If Washburn continues his excellent performance, Seattle’s will be far and away the best pitching in the AL West and in the top-five among all Major League teams, which is the recipe for at least .500 ball.

Wakball still needs a couple more foundations, but the outlines are pleasing so far.

Does anyone think the Royals or Jays are going to win their divisions?  

Let’s not get too excited, even though last night’s 11-3 drubbing of the Angels, the mighty Angels, will make anyone think the 2009 Mariners are a powerhouse. At 7-2 going into Thursday’s game, the Mariners have the second-best record in the MLB, just behind the Florida Marlins. The difference between those two teams? People are talking about the Marlins being for real and the M’s are still a surprise. Let’s keep it that way, because the first ten games—one sixteenth of the season is behind us—don’t measure the end of any season. 

And the Mariners have always been good when people underestimated them. This is a team that is coming together, learning to play together and could be much better than expected as long as they don’t start taking anything for granted. Don Wakamatsu’s aggressive brand of small ball is fun to watch, whatever the results. These are some good results.

Kenji Johjima is headed to the DL with a hamstring injury. Jamie Burke, who handles the pitching staff very well, replaces him. Jeff Clement begins to look like trade bait, if he can get his numbers up. Burke has started two games to Clement’s five in Tacoma, yet here Jamie is, the “new Pat Borders,” as Mike Snow calls him. 

Sean White joins the team, as well, to shore up the bullpen now that Chris Jakubauskas is in the rotation. The Pullman native will fill in well, but won’t shake the world.

Matt Tuiasosopo goes back to Tacoma, where he will get some much-needed work. After his Spring, he deserves to be with the big club, but he needs to be playing daily. We’ll see him again, soon. 

What’s with Adrian Beltre? His tepid start (.206 average and a paltry .265 SLG with just seven hits in 24 at-bats) suggests he is not fully recovered from off-season surgery. He’s going to heat up soon or, I suspect we’ll begin to hear about his health, again. 

Jakubauskas is pitching sell in the first. He’s thrown 12 of 14 pitches for strikes. Jak strikes out Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu, after giving up a bloop fly to Chone Figgins and getting Howie Kendrick to ground out. The rookie looks good.

The Mariners lineup tonight, as Jr. and Franklin Gutierrez get a night off:

Suzuki, RF
Chavez, CF
Sweeney, DH
Beltre, 3B
Lopez, 2B
Branyan, 1B
Balentien, LF
Johnson, C
Betancourt, SS

I’ll be at the game Friday. Look for new pictures soon.

Opening Day at Safeco Field. Closely contested pitching matchup. Mariners win in the 10th. Back late, but with the small-ball victory eked out on a bad throw to first by Scott Shields after Yuniesky Betancourt’s bunt has me starting to believe. Here are a few snapshots of the game.

Jr.'s first at-bat back in Seattle

Gutierrez doubles in the 10th

Chavez lays down the winning bunt

Gutierrez scores the winning run!

M's win home opener in Seattle, 2009

When Randy Johnson pitches, everything stops and every eye is on him, waiting for yet another strike out. Last Saturday, he provide a glance of what is yet to come and what came to help him win 295 games, strike out 4,789 batters and of course five CY Young awards.

Below are some of the questions the left handed pitcher answered with a smile, and, despite all of his achievements, with immense humility.

Advise to young pitchers:

“There’s nothing in this game I haven’t done. You’re wondering whether you’re ever going to win a ballgame. And then I’ve won 10 games in a row. I’ve had surgeries. I’ve had to battle back from those kind of things.

“I’ve had bad games. I know how you can mentally be dragging a little bit towards the end of the year. I know the demands that Tim [Lincecum] will have this year after winning the Cy Young. The door is opening for Brandon Webb. The door is opening for a player like Tim Lincecum. “I won a Cy Young in Seattle and then I came to Arizona and won four in a row. Ironically enough, my best year statistically wasn’t until I won my fifth Cy Young.

Randy Johnson: The type of pitcher:

“At this point in my career, my ability and my skills may have diminished, but not my edge or my desire to still be good. As long as I have that, that’s what motivates me. That’s what motivated me and that’s why I was so dangerous, I suppose, because I could throw 100 mph and I wanted to win. Now I still want to win, but I can win throwing 92 and it’s made me a better pitcher, as well.”

The possibility of his 300^th victory with the Giants and not with Arizona or Seattle.

I’ve done a lot in Arizona; it would have been fitting to do it there. It’s not like I’m not familiar with the San Francisco Giants. I’ve pitched against them quite a bit. I’m familiar with the ballpark. I’m familiar with the Bay Area. It’s where I grew up. It’s as good of a last chapter, if you will, of my career that there could be.”

There’s not a blank page yet. We’re still filling the page up. The author’s still at work. I haven’t had a 5.00 ERA since, because my back has been surgically fixed. If I do, I’ll retire.”