» Position Scarcity

Not So Fast Evan!

Evan Longoria was one of the best hitting prospects to come up in 2008, making a big splash in limited time for Tampa Bay.  He also rose to the occasion in October, doing serious clutch damage against numerous playoff pitchers.  In just 122 games during the regular season Longoria put up the following impressive numbers:

Fantasy Spin:  Great power potential from a less deep 3B position in ‘09 is the reasoning behind fantasy managers’ selection of Longoria in the middle of the 2nd round in drafts.  His exact ADP is 21 which is well ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones, and Chris Davis.  Longoria, at 23 years of age, is a great young hitter who is not expected to peak till another 4-5 years.  He’s always racked up his fair share of strikeouts with more than one K in every five at bats in the minor leagues.  This signifies he will not hit for a great average in 2009, so you are pretty much banking on 35+ homeruns when drafting him as early as he’s going.  Longoria further demonstrates one-dimensional abilities as his steal numbers is 2008 were flukish; he had only 8 in 758 minor league at bats. 

In addition, it was recently reported by Rotoworld.com that BJ Upton will be leading off for the Rays in ‘09.  This presents less RBI opportunites for Longoria as he will no longer hit behind the plate discipline guru Upton, who walked 97 times last year.  This does not do anything to boost Longoria’s value and should be the final straw bouncing him to the end of the 2nd or early 3rd round.

Welcome Back to the First Round Mr. Utley!

Progress ahead of schedule was all fantasy managers needed to know

Not in every generation do we witness a second baseman that fits the mold of a career .900+ OPS hitter with speed in a strong lineup.  The combination makes Utley a hot commodity in fantasy sports, and worthy of an early to middle first round pick if his health wasn’t in question.  Now, the original prognosis of his hip injury was 4-6 months, which could have set Utley as far back as late May.  However, optimism for Phillies’ fans was released by ESPN last Friday as his recovery is reportedly well ahead of schedule: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3919778.  This means the pain-free Utley could likely start contributing to fantasy teams as early as April, thus sky rocketing his value. 

Fantasy Spin: As of now Chase Utley is on average the 16th player selected in drafts according to MDC data.  With the news, fantasy managers are now inclined to take Utley in the first round again and as the first second baseman off the boards.  I’ll even go as far to say he should be picked in the No. 9 spot, after the M. Cab/Braun/Sizemore bunch.  This is a move that can be justified by assessing the risk of the likely less productive first round picks in Kinsler, Hamilton, Howard, and Rollins.  Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in any of the last three seasons.  Hamilton is risky because he’s only had one monster season and his durability is still in question.  Howard’s K:BB rate has risen steadily in the last three years and it isn’t a sure-thing that he’ll soon return to hitting in the .270 range.  Rollins, the safest of the group, has posted inconsistent power numbers over the past four years in 12, 25, 30, and 11 homeruns.