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Thank the baseball gods and pass the popcorn, Jack Zduriencik and his scouting team are going for power position players, not pitchers, in the first rounds of the draft. This fills the pipeline with defensive options, some with great power, that can play in Seattle or be traded for proven pitching prospects. It’s a much better strategy than the majority of teams in this year’s draft, the majority of which have gone for pitchers through the middle of round two.

First-round pick Dustin Ackley (scouting report), a UNC outfielder (here’s the UNC paper’s coverage) who projects as an Major League center fielder is a “pure hitter.” Ackley has batted over .400 for the past three years in one of the toughest divisions of college baseball. Ackley holds UNC’s single-season record for total bases, having batted .412, with 103 hits, 80 RBIs and 22 home runs in his senior year. This is a solid fast-track player. He played first base this season after Tommy John surgery, but Zduriencik and Mariners director of amateur scouting Tom McNamara expect him to land in the outfield at Safeco.

Nick Franklin (scouting report), a high school shortstop from Florida, was the Mariners’ second-round pick. A “toolsy” player lauded for being a “real baseball player” by the MLB TV commentators, at just 18, Franklin will be a few years before his real potential can be projected. A catcher, right-handed high-schooler Steven Baron (scouting report) was the team’s third pick, in the compensation round, followed by University of Georgia first baseman Richard Poythress (scouting report) in the second round. Both players seem to be valued for their defensive skills, each reportedly having problems at the plate.

Another UNC player, junior second baseman Kyle Seager (scouting report), was picked with fifth pick. A solid defender who could play second or third, features some speed on the bases and moderate power at the plate. He looks like a potential sleeper, perhaps showing something the Mariners liked, as he wasn’t picked to go in the first 100 picks.

Let the Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, whose “once-in-a-generation” status comes with all the risk of a pitcher in the draft plus overwhelmingly high expectations. On MLB TV today, Tony Gwynn, Strasburg’s coach at San Diego State, is reported to have said there are no comparable pitchers to the 100-mile fast ball pitcher—hopefully for the Nationals, he’ll not follow previous sure-fire pitchers like Rick Ankiel and Mark Prior, both of whom overpitched young to keep up with management’s expectations.

It’s about time. Yuniesky Betancourt has been benched by Mariners Manager Don Wakamatsu. A couple Sundays back, when Yuni had two errors on two consecutive grounders hit to short, it became clear that the time had come to give up on any dreams of hidden greatness and move on.

Comparing Beltre and Betancourt

While Betancourt did demonstrate some improved plate discipline early this season, it hasn’t delivered great results. His .259 batting average hides how really bad he’s been. There’s no power and little tactical value in his 12 RBIs, four two-baggers and one home run.

The really frightening thing is that Adrian Beltre is batting worse that Betancourt. Beltre did add a home run during tonights ongoing game with Texas, but it’s time for some answers: Is Beltre playing hurt?

What to make of Carlos Silva?

As I noted yesterday, I’m starting to be a believer in the new-look Mariners (click through for Opening Day pictures), but the thrill of Opening Day can do that. Today’s news, that Chris Jakubauskas will join the starting rotation, something he earned in Peoria this March but only came to pass today, gives me more reasons to feel optimism. It suggests that, despite the payroll the best players are going to get time on the field. 

Jakubauskas, who had never made a major league roster in his 29 years until the Mariners brought him north, has pitched well in his four innings this month. He’s running a 4.50 ERA and picked up two strikes while winning a game. He’s performed well under pressure. Ryan Rowland-Smith, who had been tipped for Thursday’s start, will go on the disabled list instead with tendonitis in his triceps, according to U.S.S. Mariner. The move is retroactive to April 11, making Rowland-Smith eligible to return by the 26th, during the next Angels series in L.A.

What to make of Carlos Silva’s pitching yesterday? Some thoughts from one fan: 4 hits, 3 earned runs, one walk, four strikeouts over seven innings. Not bad. On the season, he’s got a still shaky 6.00 ERA, which is much closer to his miserable 2008 mark than when he won 13 games in 2007. He worked himself out of a bases-loaded situation last night, but he also loaded the bases. I’d like to see more starts like Tuesday and another Zduriencik-engineered trade to make more room for young arms, because Silva’s fundamentals are still out of whack.

Tonight’s lineup is:

Ichiro, RF
Chavez, LF
Griffey Jr. DH
Beltre, 3B
Branyan, 1B
Lopez, 2B
Johjima, C
Betancourt, SS
Gutierrez, CF

Starting: Jarrod Washburn, 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA.

Here are the official game notes, the first pitch comes in about 25 minutes. There’s an error. It says Miguel Batista is the oldest player on the M’s roster. Ken Griffey Jr. is the oldest, not Batista. I’m excited to see Griffey.

Pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez v. Francisco Liriano. Liriano is coming back after losing 2007 and most of 2008 to elbow surgery. He was good and improved through the 76 innings (6-4) he posted late last year. Felix has had excellent Opening Days the last two years; Liriano is a fine opponent for the still-young Mariners ace. It’s cold in the Twin Cities, so the advantage goes to Felix, who has pitched well in the cold. (Doh! Minnesota’s current stadium is a dome — next year, the temperature will make a difference.)

The starting lineup for Seattle:

Gawd, that was an awful FSN music video, “go,” that bodes ill for the new era.

And the first pitch is an inside ball from Liriano. Season underway!

Chavez, Gutierez ground out. Liriano’s fast ball is snapping, and the ground balls suggest he’s going to be effective tonight. Sweeney’s free-swinging at-bat ends with a called strike on a checked swing. M’s go down 1-2-3.

Ouch. Felix walks the lead-off batter, Denard Span. He’s looking a little out of control. The fly ball by Casilla suggests Felix isn’t keeping the ball down. Morneau’s hit shows Felix is getting a little more control — nice fielding by Jose Lopez.

Holy crap. Felix took a bad step and seems to have injured his ankle or calf. He’s limping off his delivery. He’s staying in the game. He’s not sitting in the dugout, so it’s still sore.

Jr. at bat, moving Beltre to third. Sacrifice fly by Jose Lopez scores Beltre — first run of the year. Branyan ends the inning.

Felix back and pitches a strong 1-2-3 inning. This is starting to feel like a solid outing. If the M’s can keep the defense up…. 

Liriano pitching a very good game. Nice movement on his pitches. Felix, however, looks incredibly calm and in control now.

In the bottom of the third, the Twins got close, but Felix pulled it back with a K. Nice.

At mid-fourth inning, Twins have left eight men on base compared to one for the M’s. This is a good trend. Seattle’s defense is definitely upgraded. Keeping runs down will increase the win ratio substantially.

Jr. at bat: Another Opening Day home run. Believe that ties him for the record now. Yes, Mr. Griffey, we are very happy you are back. Seattle is up 2-0 after the top of the fifth.

But in the bottom of the fifth, Felix hits his crisis moment. Three men on, no outs, with Cuddyer and Morneau coming to the plate. Felix gets Cuddyer but gives up a fly ball to short center to Morneau, scoring one. Then Felix gets out of the inning. Felix has eight ground-outs to two flyouts, which means his pitches are working on Opening Day.

Gutierrez sends a ball just over the wall, beyond Carlos Gomez’s glove–this kind of power would be welcome all season long. He’s got an under-rated bat, I think. Mariners lead 4-1 after six-and-a-half. Now the Twins have left 16 men on base to the M’s one. Excellent defense, M’s. Felix seems to have aggravated his ankle covering first. I’d be surprised if he comes back in the 7th. And, yet, Felix comes back in the 7th, starting with breaking balls. The kid is maturing, mixing pitches to go further in the game. Another 1-2-3 inning for the young King.

Kenji Johjima leads off the 8th. We’re seeing the 2008 Kenji, so far, not the WBC Kenji. He’s put the ball in play in both at-bats before this, but was thrown out and flied out; and now gets on base with a hard liner up the middle. Now, he’s .333 on the day. Maybe we’re seeing the WBC Kenji. Yuniesky Betancourt, though he has shown better plate discipline during the Spring, is 0-3 today, grounding into a double-play this at-bat. Dave Simms is talking about Yuni batting all over the lineup, but he still looks like a bottom-of-the-order guy to me.

Felix returns for the 8th! This long effective start is great news for fans. He’s still putting the ball into the glove with a pop. Good movement on his fastball this late. Morneau’s fly-out, though a good stroke, shows how well the ball is dropping out of Felix’s hand. Miguel Batista, who is not the oldest Mariner today, is warming up for the 9th. Brandon Morrow is also up and will likely close the game.

In the Ninth, Gutierrez shows patience at the plate, drawing a walk. This kid is very good. I think he’ll be the big addition we look back on, despite Jr.’s return this year. With a veteran like Ken Griffey Jr. to lead them, these youngsters are going to lay a solid foundation for the future in 2009. But, first, Jr. gets one more at-bat. Fitting. He walks and Wladimir Balentien will run for him. Now, Jose Lopez, who has two RBIs, gets his shot at making an Opening Day mark.

A passed ball lets Gutierrez and Balentien advance to third and second, respectively. Lopez hits a foul to left that Denard Span makes a great attempt to catch. Lopez gets the ball past the left side of the infield to score Gutierrez. Three RBIs on the day.

A Twins fan just avoided becoming a shish-kabob with a bizarre under-the-arm catch of a broken bat. Non-fielding play of the day.

With a five-run lead, Batista will close. Branyan goes 0-4 on the day, flying out weakly to end the M’s half of the ninth. 

Batista is solid. A rare misread by Adrian Beltre gives Joe Crede a base hit. But Batista throws filthy heat to strike out Carlos Gomez. And with  Branyan stop, Don Wakamatsu earns his first win.

First thoughts on the M’s in ‘09: A solid defensive upgrade will pay dividends, but the pitching remains a concern after the #1 and #2 starters. If the offense can continue to score five or more runs a game, the team will be better by 12 to 15 games this year with this pitching. Jr. is back and it is good. Felix was efficient with his pitches, making the prospect of several complete games very likely this year. I won’t be blogging games later this week, but this was a good first game of the New Era, despite the crappy FSN music video. I guess they can keep playing it, maybe once more.

The Mariners have a chance to take third place in the AL West. They would need much better 3-4-5 pitching to do better. Ichiro’s ulcer is troubling, putting the first dent in his indestructible armor. Chris Jakubauskas should be pitching in the fourth SP spot, but he is in the bullpen. If Chan Ho Park can win the Five Spot with the reigning world champions, Jakubauskas’ Spring deserves a starting role on the Mariners. It would be a stronger sign of change. 

The Angels, whose pitching depth is Olympic-sized pool deep, are the team to beat. The A’s, while they added Holliday and Giambi, don’t have the kind of veteran staff that can win against L.A. 

What’s ahead for Seattle? Matt Tuiasosopo, who makes the Opening Day roster because of Ichiro’s DL trip, will have a chance to make management comfortable trading Adrian Beltre, who could bring a nice harvest of pitching. How about swapping Beltre for Roy Halladay from Toronto, who still has a couple years of contract left with the Blue Jays?

But it would have made more sense to bring Mike Wilson, who had a great Spring, up to cover for Ichiro. Ken Griffey Jr. is filling in at Right Field, which will give Mike Sweeney more at-bats as DH,  but the outfield is only one player deep at all positions, with Wladimir Balentien as the only available backup. 

By the end of the season, the M’s will look very different. Pitching changes, reshuffling and additions in the field, and a better record for the effort. It’s still just the beginning. I’ll be there for many of the home games, watching and blogging all the way. Stay tuned to MajorLeagueBlogging.com.

When Jack Zduriencik took the GM job in Seattle, he told the press he’d made freedom of action to rebuild the roster a condition of employment with ownership. Pitching is where he’ll have to make his stand. The reason is Chris Jakubauskas, a non-roster invitee who has been stellar in three starts the Spring. In 16.2 innings pitched, Jakubauskus has tossed for a 2.16 average and allowed only 12 hits. He does let batters put wood on the ball, having only seven strikeouts in those innings, but works consistently to get outs. It’s the kind of competence that stands out after Seattle pitching gave up an average of 5.09 runs per game last year.

Two of Seattle’s presumed starters, by contrast, are a study in the kind of overpaid contract fat Zduriencik has promised to cut. Jarrod Washburn’s given up 20 hits and seven earned runs in his 13 innings (a 4.85 ERA compared with his 2008 4.69 mark) and the misleadingly resurgent Carlos Silva, who had pitched well in early WBC games before he imploded in Saturday’s Venezuela-Korea semi-final, giving up seven runs on six hits in one-and-a-third inning. Those two guys will make $18.10 million in 2009—Washburn: $9.85 million and; Silva: $8.25 million. Both these guys are going the wrong way.

Jakubauskas would make league-minimum salary as a 29-year-old rookie. If Zduriencik has his independence, he must consider seriously going with Jakubauskas as his fifth starter. The only reason this kid is a “long shot” after this performance is that he doesn’t have millions of dollars in salary after his name on the roster.

It’s time to deal Washburn and, if he returns from the WBC pitching poorly, Silva (we can hope, I suppose, that he’s better than one bad inning). Maybe Zduriencik could package one of these guys and Clement to pick up a single lower-A sleeper prospect. Or send them to the Rainiers in Triple-A to work off their salaries without costing Seattle games.

In other news, good to see that I am not the only one predicting Rob Johnson will make the Opening Day roster. Jim Street lays out his projected roster and says former first-round pick C Jeff Clement will be Tacoma-bound. He also sees Brandon Morrow starting the season on the DL (making more room for Jakubauskas).

Two milestones for the new season in Seattle this week: the first cuts from the major league camp and the new television commercials which, for Mariners fans, are a rite of passage to Opening Day. First, the commercials, which you can view here (and get two DVDs containing all 100 Mariners commercials on two Friday nights this summer—strange as this may seem to fans in other cities, these spots are funny and a key to the players’ relationship with fans here). The 100th spot, featuring Jay Buhner and Edgar Martinez, is especially funny because of Bone and Gar’s ability to play straight men. I was wondering why the Mariners didn’t get California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger or, at mimimum, a life-size cut-out of the big Austrian for the Ryan Rowland-Smith Austria-Australia confusion spot. With the California budget in the shape it’s in, the Governator could have used the spare cash.

But on to other, more important issues. Mike Sweeney, whose bat came to life in today’s game against Oakland, will likely be the backup first baseman this season, as Bryan LaHair was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma to continue to develop his game after serving a tour in Seattle after the exile of Richie Sexson in 2008.

Chris Shelton, who is batting .516 with three home runs as of Friday, has always been better in the early part of the year and will not likely make the Mariners roster because Sweeney is the kind of veteran who can have success in pinch-hit at-bats.

Based on his .235 batting average this Spring, Jeff Clement is the man on the bubble, who could lose out as backup catcher and backup DH to land back in Tacoma. The kid has a ton of potential, but with so many catchers in the system, is starting to look like trade bait to me. Remember, Jason Varitek started in the Seattle system. Clement is beginning to show the signs of “former Mariner,” the kind of guy we see in another uniform and wonder what went wrong here. Rob Johnson, meanwhile, is batting .409 with better power and plate discipline this Spring.

What to do with Matt Tuiaososopo will be the biggest challenge at the end of camp. In 50 at-bats, he’s batting .440, slugging .700 and some respectable power despite striking out 28 percent of the time. Smart money says he goes back to Triple-A to see if he dominates there, because Adrian Beltre has a well-deserved lock on third base. But if GM Jack Zduriencik sees an opportunity to trade Beltre, should Seattle decide it can’t sign the walk-year veteran for another contract, expect a deal early in the season. Beltre is an excellent defensive third baseman, it would be disappointing to see him go. With a kid tearing the cover off the ball behind him, though, it looks like the Mariners will not agonize over letting Beltre go.

Pitching remains the most difficult call—it’s what I’ll be concentrating on here in the final two weeks of this long Spring Training.

It’s ironic that the Seattle Mariners’ web site depth chart is misconfigured today (see right), so that the outfield seems to be playing infield, because it reflects the strange suspension of competition for positions that the WBC has created. Nonetheless, there is a lot of baseball being played, with Ronny Cedeno and Matt Tuiasosopo making excellent cases for a place on the Mariners’ roster, batting .314 and .500, respectively, through Saturday.

Misconfigured

What to do with both Cedeno and Tuiasosopo is about the only major position battle going on while the team waits for its WBC contingent to return, as it seems certain that Jose Lopez, barring injury, will take second base on opening day. Tuiasosopo, only 22, may be headed for Tacoma, unless Adrian Beltre, who is easing back into playing after two surgeries (shoulder and hand) at the end of last season, goes on the disabled list. 

At first base, which I wrote about last weekend, Russell Branyan is emerging as the Opening Day starter. He belted his second and third home runs of the Spring during today’s game. The performance of Chris Shelton, who has a .630 OBP and Slugging Percentage of 1.048 in 22 at-bats in Arizona has him looking like the backup at first.

But the team is still waiting on Lopez, Ichiro, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Kenji Johjima and Endy Chavez to return from the WBC. With Jeff Clement batting only .208 this Spring, Johjima has no worries about ceding his starting role to the young catcher. Rob Johnson, another of the cadre of fine catching prospects in waiting, is hitting much better than Clement. It’s possible that GM Jack Zduriencik will give up on the Bavasi-era first-round pick, Clement. He keeps saying that every job has to be earned—Clement’s not doing the job so far.

After the jump, I’ll lay out what I think the Opening Day roster will look like. But the real actionin the battle for places on the roster won’t start until the WBC is over, when Manager Don Wakamatsu and Zdurniencik will be able to see a combination of real-world line-ups in action on the field. This is just a strawman, based on player performance to date and listening to the daily musings of Don Wakamatsu and Zduriencik. The pitching situation remains largely settled, though it’s an open issue, and not a pressing one, who will be the #5 starter, Ryan Rowland-Smith or Jarrod Washburn, assuming Brandon Morrow is on the DL (starters indicated by asterisks). With Morrow on the DL, this roster is short one player. I think Chad Cordero, who is not on this list, will be the closer by mid-season, if his shoulder recovers. That will probably mean Messenger or Walker, whomever is struggling more, will be sent down.

Now that the M’s have lost three games in a row, and trail lead in the Saturday game 2-7 (now the M’s have come back to score four in the 8th, making it 6-7; now, in the 9th, Brian LaHair gave the M’s the lead with a two-run homer) to the Dodgers, the club’s rebuilding challenges are laid plain: The team needs power and to strengthen every aspect of its pitching. Manager Don Wakamatsu has shown he can direct his players to generate hits and put the “game in motion.” Adrian Beltre has shown he is healthy, but home runs are coming in eccentric bursts from prospects who have never shown consistent power.

Because of the WBC, which is showing itself to be consistently thrilling and worth the distraction from team-building debates, the next couple weeks will remain a protracted audition for youngsters.

In the WBC, Seattle’s Phillippe Aumont, a 20-year-old right-hander, has pitched very well for Team Canada. His performance suggests he could be a solution to the Mariners’ problems in middle- or late-inning settings, but the team should not rush his development. Let his WBC appearances build his confidence, but remember that this kid has never played above A ball and needs a full year, or more, of professional pitching before stepping into Safeco. He could finish this year at Tacoma, if his elbow, which wore out last summer in Wisconsin, holds up. But this is a case where patience will pay off.

Inchiro Suzuki was off to a slow start for Team Japan, something he wasn’t happy about. In the team’s second game, against a very capable Korean team, Ichiro went 5-for-5 with three runs scored. During the first game, against Team China, Ichiro’s speed to first base appeared to have slowed, as he was getting out of the box slowly. In the Korea game, his bat was quicker, but he seems to have added a step to his slashing swing, a sort of pause in the box when he would have been stepping toward first in previous seasons. On the basepaths, though, Ichiro was flying.

Erik Bedard is healthy. With 4.2 inninings pitched this Spring, Bedard has returned to the quiet effective pitching that made him so attractive to the Bavasi regime. Good for the 2009 Mariners and Bedard, too late and too little for Bavasi. Bedard’s strike outs-per-inning ratio isn’t up to his stellar 2007 level, but the 0.00 ERA and one hit allowed look very good. The question is, does Seattle keep him, even re-sign him, or trade him for prospects or a bat, or batting prospects? In a rebuilding year, these are the questions management should be asking and, probably, are.

Back in Arizona, the kids are alright, but not spectacular. Ronny Cedeno is touted as making his case for a starting role at Shortstop, but Yuniesky Betancourt’s defensive play has impressed. Cedeno is a better batter and, frankly, a better fielder, who could win the position once Betancourt’s batted a comparable number of times (at this writing, Cedeno is batting .333 in 18 at-bats while Betancourt’s batted .333 in three at-bats. The numbers will eventually work in Cedeno’s favor.

The happy surprise of the Spring so far is Franlin Gutierrez’s batting. In 14 at-bats, Gutierrez is batting .430, an unexpected bonus from the plus-defensive center fielder.

As much as the M’s don’t have a closer, they don’t have a starting first baseman, either. Larry LaRue covered the crowd at first, summarizing the situation aptly: “There are more candidates for utility jobs than there are first basemen.

Russell Branyan has been tapped for the job, but he’s showing little power at the plate and has played in more than 100 games only once in his 12 seasons. He’s got some power, but not enough to intimidate.

Chris Shelton, who had an epic early April for Detroit in 2006, hitting nine HRs in the first 13 games, has hit three home runs and has a 1.250 slugging percentage in his 12 at-bats this Spring. Shelton hasn’t demonstrated he’s a season-long starter. In the meantime, Brian LaHair, who filled the First Base position for the Mariners last year, just hit a lead-winning home run in today’s game; yet, he’s hitting just .231 in his first 13 at-bats.

Jeff Clement, who has been catching this Spring, could fill in at 1st, as well as Jose Lopez, who was the fourth-best batting second baseman in the majors during 2008. If Cedeno and Betancourt perform well through Spring, Lopez could be moved to 1st, but his 17 home runs (up from 11 in 2007) still falls short of the power needed at that corner.

The counter-intuitive option: Move Matt Tuiasosopo to first. Sure, he’s the third-baseman of the future, but the team could retain Adrian Beltre after 2009, sacrificing nothing on defense and keeping 20-HR players at both corners. Tuiasosopo has batted .533 this Spring. He made a rocky transition from shortstop to 3rd in the minors.

Ultimately, none of these guys is what the M’s need at 1st, and Tuiasosopo will likely be needed at third.

This is a position where GM Jack Zduriencick needs to deal for a true starter, so that Lopez can stay at second and the team can add another big bat in the three, four or five slot in the batting order. How about sending Bedard to Cleveland for Matt LaPorta, a good defensive first baseman with power, and Wes Hodges, a third-base prospect who hit very well in Winter League ball. Both would be under the club’s control for years, while Cleveland needs a starter to headline its rotation after losing C.C. Sabathia and injuries to Fausto Carmona. That trade would help both clubs in their current situations, move Bedard closer to his Eastern Canadian roots, and provide the M’s a lot of options in its infield.