» Fernando Martinez

At this point the Mets Rotation breaks down as follows:

I would just like to point out that our RP, Sean Green who has pitched 7.1 innings, has 10 K, which is only 1 less than John Maine in 8.1 less innings, and only 5 less K’s than Oliver Perez in 7.2 less innings. I think it’s very safe to say that are rotation as a whole is extremely inconsistent. If the Mets somehow make the playoffs with this team/rotation, I truly believe Johan Santana (if he stays healthy of course) needs to be considered as a MVP candidate. I can’t think of any team needing one player more. If the Cards make it, Pujols is fantastic, but so is Ludwick; Carpenter when healthy is great as is Wainwright. If the Cubs make it, they have a great rotation (Harden, Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster, Heilman haha just kidding) and multiple good hitters (Soriano, DLee, Aramis). If the Phillies make it they have Hamels with at least Myers and Moyer and Utely, Howard, Rollins +. If the Dodgers make it, they have Manny, Ethier, Kemp, Billingsley, but also Kershaw and Kuroda. I know if the Marlins make it they’ll, have Hanley to thank, but they also have Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco +. Same with the Braves (Lowe, Vazquez, Chipper, McCann). I know the Mets have multiple good offensive hitters in Wright, Reyes, Delgado, Beltran, maybe Murphy, but they obviously have only one consistent SP in Johan Santana. I’ll tell you right now, if the Mets make it somehow into the playoffs with this exact team, Johan Santana will or at least should be the 2009 NL MVP. With that said, I think the Mets 100% need to pull of a All-Star Break/Deadline Starting Pitching Trade. We need to look at Jake Peavy/Erik Bedard/Roy Halladay or which ever other SP will be available. Now that we have Daniel Murphy for LF, we can trade Fernando Martinez(of). We can also trade our top ss prospect (Wilmer Flores/Reese Havens), our top 3b prospect (Jeff Marte), since we have Wright/3b and Reyes/ss locked in, and obviously we’ll need to give up our top P prospect (Jon Niese/Brad Holt) in order to land one of these starters. Feel free to comment/suggest or alleive my worries, but honestly, no way can the Mets prosper with this current rotation.

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Daniel Murphy looks to be a perfect two-hole hitter and a fantasy baseball stat provider. Thus far, in 2009 he’s batting .296 with a .345 obp, including a Home Run in his 3^rd at bat. In 2008, he hit .313, but, considerably more significant was his .397 obp. His offensive approach and surprising patience, will provide Jose Reyes a chance to run and David Wright a chance to drive in someone other than (and in addition to) Jose Reyes. I see Murphy providing the following fantasy line:

93runs-15homeruns-73rbis-6stolen bases-.283avg-.357obp.

I think Daniel Murphy is exactly what the Mets needed in so many different ways. Probably the only way, he’s not extremely needed, is that he hits left-handed, however, this guarantees him hitting 2^nd all year (without any slumps) because the Mets wouldn’t bat Delgado-Murphy-Church-Schneider back to back. I think Reyes(s) Murphy(l) Wright(r) Delgado(l) Beltran(r) Church(l)/Sheffield(r) Shneider(l)/Castro(r) Castillo(s)/Cora(l) is what they will go with all year. Maybe against phenomenal lefties, he could hit toward the bottom of the lineup, but I would say at least 85% of his at bats comes from the 2-hole.

I posted this factor in my first post of the season – NL East Projections/Previews, but I think one of the most important aspects surrounding Daniel Murphy, will be the Met’s ability to trade Fernando Martinez. Maybe they want to keep him for RF, which of course, they should (if he pans out), but I really think we should trade him in addition to one of our top SS prospects (Wilmer Flores/ Reese Havens) and one of our top P prospects (Jon Niese/Brad Holt/Eddie Kunz) for a top notch starter, such as Roy Halladay, Erik Bedard + Jose Lopez, or Jake Peavy. I think Fernando Martinez is expendable because of Murphy; Havens/Flores is expendable because of Reyes; and even our 3b prospect, Jeff Marte is expendable because of Wright. Why not trade these pieces for another starter and 2b while we’re at it:

If they deem Jeff Marte effective, this allows the Mariners to also trade Adrian Beltre(3b), and they then can have a successful fire sale. The Mets lineup and rotation would look as follows:

This trade would not only make the rotation and lineup look significantly better, but the Mets would have Johan Santana – Erik Bedard – Oliver Perez (Lefty-Lefty-Lefty) against the Phillies. I guess I’m subconsciously dwelling on the Phillies, but METS… PLEASE DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE BRAVES – AND MARLINS!!!!!

NL East Preview/Projection

*The NL East is the only division that can attempt to match the AL East with a lineup of…

Jose Reyes (ss-NYM)-With the epitome of range at SS and speed & OBP now at the top of the lineup

(120-17-68-60-295)

Chase Utley (2b-PHL)-The patience to be the perfect #2 hitter but the greatness to bat anywhere

(115-30-110-13-296)

Hanley Ramirez (lf-FLA)-Talent to bat leadoff or third & now he has Bonaficio and Maybin to drive in

(116-33-106-29-303)

Ryan Howard (1b-PHL)-HR & RBI leader of the MLB last year and again this year with a better AVG

(96-45-135-1-275)

David Wright (3b-NYM)-Has Reyes & Murphy in front and Beltran & Delgado behind; Got to love his line

(112-31-122-20-305)

Carlos Beltran (cf-NYM)-Batting 5^th will hurt his runs but gold glove CF with power & speed combo

(92-26-115-22-279)

Brian McCann (c-ATL)-Great line at Catcher; Another year under his belt and less weight above his belt

(68-24-94-3-298)

Jimmy Rollins (dh-PHL)-Rather Reyes at SS & Hanley in LF, but I’ll take Rollins at DH against the AL East

(119-19-75-39-278)

Jeff Francoeur (rf-ATL)-Gun for an arm and a rebound year for our last OF spot

(77-22-90-3-269)

….and a rotation of:

Johan Santana (NYM)-18 straight starts without a loss and A NEW BULLPEN – 20+ wins?

(20-2.85-1.15-209)

Cole Hamels (PHL)-Same fastball/changeup repertoire that BAFFLES hitters; Health issues?

(16-3.19-1.09-194)

Derek Lowe (ATL)-Durable. That’s all I have to say, but with all his groundouts, he would probably be effective even with Colorado, or Texas.

(14-3.75-1.25-140)

Ricky Nolasco (FLA)-Still underrated? Doubt it, but he’ll be almost as good this year.

(14-3.84-1.21-171)

Josh Johnson (FLA)-Better k-rate than Nolasco with Worse WHIP, but stud if healthy.

(14-3.65-1.33-175)

…and a solid bullpen of Brad Lidge(38sv), Francisco Rodriguez(42sv), JJ Putz(6sv), Mike Gonzalez(30sv), Matt Lindstrom(23sv), Joel Hanrahan(25sv) and let us not forget about ambidextrous Billy Wagner pitching with determination and for another contract later in the year.

*Breaking down the NL East by position and using a sample rank system, I came up with the following (as objectively as possible):

c: McCann(atl-5) – Really no other C in the NL East can compare

1b: Ryan Howard(phl-5pts); Carlos Delgado(nym-4pts); Jorge Cantu(fla-3pts); Adam Dunn(was-3pts); Casey Kotchman(atl-2pts) - Howard is the clear favorite; A somewhat offensive bounce-back from Kotchman is in place; Delgado, Cantu, and Dunn should all be solid again; Cantu is definitely still underrated with Bonifacio, Maybin sometimes, and Hanley Ramirez in front of him.

2b: Chase Utley(phl-5pts);Dan Uggla(fla-3pts);Kelly Johnson(atl-2pts); Luis Castillo(nym-1pt) – Castillo can be an effective 2b still at the 8-spot in the Mets lineup; Kelly Johnson can go 85-17-75-9-287 with maturity and confidence. Obviously, the Nationals have a 2^nd baseman in Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard – I just don’t think they’re worth writing about.

3b: David Wright(nym-5pts); Chipper Jones(atl-4pts); Ryan Zimmerman(was-3pts) Emilio Bonifacio (fla-3pts) – Chipper does deserve 5 points along with Wright if he could just stay healthy enough; If Bonifacio sticks to leadoff he can be a runs and sb stud; and Zimmerman should have a 85-20-85-5-285 line. His defense is fantastic and he has potential for 85-25-95-5-290. Pedro Feliz isn’t worth ranking albeit solid defense.

ss: Hanley Ramirez(fla-5pts); Jose Reyes(nym-4pts); Jimmy Rollins (phl-4pts); Yunel Escobar(atl-2pts) – I wanted to give 5 points to both Rollins and Reyes as well, but It’s true that Hanley is in an offensive class all by himself since he’ll have lots of rbi opportunities this year; I personally think Reyes can belt 19 home runs this year, but 16hr + 60sb is beautiful with a stellar .293-.297 avg.

lf: Raul Ibanez(tilde over the n)(phl-5pts); Daniel Murphy(nym-4pts); Matt Diaz(atl-3pts); Josh Willingham (was-2pts) – I love Daniel Murphy batting 2^nd in the Mets lineup. I think a very healthy 90-17-75-7-286 is very possible; Ibanez will be stellar there in the Phillies Lineup; Matt Diaz with playing time can be very good. Along with Brian McCann, he slimmed down a bit.

cf: Carlos Beltran(nym-5pts); Shane Victorino(phl-4pts); Cameron Maybin(fla-3pts); Lastings Milledge(was-2 pts); Jordan Schaeffer (atl-2pts) – Jordan Schaeffer is young and good. He’s already got 2 hr this year. He could switch with Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar for the top of the lineup if slow starts occur for either of the 2 or when Chipper sits (which will be enough) and Omar Infante is in the lineup. I think he can be good for 17hr-15sb. Maybin should bat 2^nd but may find himself at the bottom of the lineup enough to hurt. His lineup spot should have the following breakdown: 50% batting 8^th, 35% batting 2^nd; and 15% batting lead-off. A line of 85-15-65-25-269 seems great for where he went in drafts; Like I said prior, Beltran will lose out on runs and protection batting 5^th, but he should bat 4^th enough against lefties when Delgado bats 5^th.

rf: Jeff Francoeur(atl-5pts); Jayson Werth(phl-4pts); Jeremy Hermida(fla-2pts); Elijah Dukes-Austin Kearns(was-2pts); Church-Sheffield(nym-2pts) – Hermida was regarded very highly just a few years ago, and the rbi opportunities are there. He could get time batting 2^nd as well. I actually like him for a line of 75-18-75-6-260; Werth should be very good when healthy since right field is his. I see 24hr-15sb due to injury concern; Platoons and split-time between the Mets and Nationals right field situations should yield above average numbers. The difference between them and Francoeur however is obviously not nearly as great between say Chase Utley at 2b and Ronnie Belliard at 2b so I think they deserve 2 pts to Francoeur’s 5 pts.

sp1: Johan Santana(nym-5pts); Cole Hamels(phl-5pts); Derek Lowe(atl-4pts); Ricky Nolasco(fla-4pts)

sp2: Josh Johnson(fla-5pts); Javier Vazquez(atl-3pts); Brett Myers(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez (nym-3pts) – To me, Josh Johnson is clearly the best #2 starter here with the other 3 teams having fairly similar numbers at the #2 rotation spot. The thing with the Mets is I’m not sure who the #2 will be by year’s end – same for their number 3 and 4 starters, and I’m a Mets Fan; Brett Myers Could be good at times and a mess at others. I think he’s better than Moyer this year (even though Moyer may be ageless the way he pitches) so I’ll put him here and Moyer in the 3-whole.

sp3: Jair Jurjjens(atl-4pts); Jamie Moyer(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts); Volstad(fla-3pts)

sp4: Joe Blanton(phl-4pts); Kenshin Kawakami(atl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts) – I think Kawakami can be as effective as the teams’ other #4’s since no one has seen him.

sp5/Minor League P call-ups: Tommy Hanson(atl-4pts); Jordan Zimmerman(was-3pts); Carlos Carrasco(phl-3pts); Jon Niese(nym-1pts) – the Phillies, Nat’s, and especially the Braves have a future Ace or #2 in the whole, while the Mets, to me have a future #4. I think the Phillies will need Carrasco quicker than the Mets need Niese or Braves need Hanson, but Hanson is the best among the new wave of NL East Starters. Jordan Zimmerman could and should put up better than league average numbers in his first season.

P.S. Livan Hernandez will be horrendous for the Mets. Hopefully they sign Pedro Martinez or Jon Niese and Tim Redding can be effective enough. However, I do see a deadline SP deal for the Mets, which comes later in the post.

closer: Brad Lidge(phl-5pts); Krod(nym-5pts); Mike Gonzalez(atl-3pts); Matt Lindstrom(fla-2pts); Joel Hanrahan(was-2pts)-Krod and Lidge will be great again. Gonzalez is underrated and can save 35 games without Rafael Soriano getting a chance. Tommy Hanson could get some opportunities if both Gonzalez and Soriano are unhealthy, but I think they’ll keep him as a SP as he sores to the Majors. Lindstrom can be very good with his 100mph fast ball and slider so long as he stays healthy. Per pitch, he was the hardest thrower in the majors last year, and let’s not forget about Jon Broxton/LAD or Joel Zumaya/DET.

setup: JJ Putz(nym-5pts); Rafael Soriano(atl-2pts) – If Krod goes down, the Mets should still be OK because of JJ Putz - just OK. JC Romero of PHL could have been here if he didn’t get suspended for substance abuse, but hey thanks for helping the Phillies win the World Series and thanks for playing in the World Baseball Classic. Horrendousness.

Figure 1.0: Results

Point-Breakdown:

*Obviously, this is a very basic statistical way (almost a weight system) of ranking the NL East, but still feasible. Those not ranked, still received 1 pt for the contingent positions. The above system ranks each team as follows: Phillies (53pts) Mets (51pts) Braves (48pts) Marlins (38pts) and of course lastly, the Nationals (25pts). So here, the Phillies rank 1^st. However, there are definitely contingencies this year, such as how the Braves play against the Phillies. They were 4-14 against the Phillies last year. The Braves rotation with Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, and Hanson later on in the season, will be much much better, and their offense should pick up quite a bit as well. Most Importantly – The Mets. They had the 3^rd most blown saves last season with 29 (Both the Cardinals and Mariners had 31). The additions by subtractions and additions by great additions/call-ups (Krod, Putz, Sean Green, Brian Stokes, Bobby Parnell) should subtract at least 15 of those 29 blown saves – and probably many more!!! All three referenced NL East teams need to watch out for the Marlins, but I don’t think they have the bullpen and rotation depth to compete for 162 games in the 2^nd best division in the Major Leagues for 2009.

Mets Trade Rumors:

*Lastly, there will always be trade rumors throughout the season, and at the deadline. It may be more intense this year than last due to the economy, and some non-competing teams may be very willing to rid of their expensive talent. I think the Mets will be big players in a sundry of discussions – mainly with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and potentially the Padres. I think Erik Bedard (sp) along with Jose Lopez (2b), Roy Halladay (sp), as well as Jake Peavy(sp) would be fantastic additions after Johan Santana in the Mets Rotation. Another interesting difference this year, can be the Mets POTENTIAL willingness to trade Fernando Martinez, the Mets top OF prospect since they found a stud in Daniel Murphy. I think an offer like Fernando Martinez(of), Jon Niese(sp), and either a Reese Haven(ss) or Brad Holt(p) + Nick Evans (of) could potentially help us land a Roy Halladay or Erik Bedard. If we can land Jose Lopez for 2b along with Erik Bedard, I don’t see how the Mets wouldn’t easily win the NL East.

Mets Roster Additions:

*I think Sheffield was actually a good right-handed bat of the bench for the New York Mets, and

can be a great platoon with Ryan Church (left-handed). Livan Hernandez/sp just won’t be effective anymore, and the Mets should attempt to woo Pedro Martinez for 1 year at 2.5 million.

*2009 NL East Projections: (Honestly I think the Phillies and Braves are Interchangeable)

1- New York Mets (91-71)

2- Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) – WC

3- Atlanta Braves (87-75)

4- Florida Marlins (85-77)

5- Washington Nationals (63-99)

*Very Early 2009 MLB Playoffs Projections:

Mets vs. Dodgers

Phillies vs. Cubs

NL Championship: Mets vs. Cubs

WS Championship: Mets vs. Red Sox

WS Champions: Red Sox

AL Championship: Boston vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs. Angels

Yankees (WC) vs. Twins

Did You Know:

Did you know in college, Mike Lieberthal had a Homerun Cycle – He hit a grand slam, a 3-run homerun, a 2-run homerun, and a solo shot.  I read this on the back on his 1991 Topps Rookie Card! Amazing!!!

Did you know – The founder of this Site, Jeff Gross’, Favorite player was [LAD/TEX/ANA/TOT/CHC/SEA/SAN/FLA Pitcher] Ismael Valdez. Fantastic.

Also Fantasy-eers – Don’t forget Brandon Inge/c-3b on the Tigers is eligible at CATCHER! But make sure you have Pujol’s avg on the team, b/c Inge will hurt that badly!

RIP Nick Adenhart. Best wishes to the Angels (no corny joke), his friends, and most importantly, his family.