» Evan Longoria

If your fantasy leagues have waiver wire/free agent addition restrictions like all my leagues do, there is a strategy I like to attend to, and I’ll give you the reasoning. Most of my league-mates make fun of me for picking up an infinite amount of players as soon as possible and only having 5/10 additions allowed left by the season’s end. In a standard 12 team 5×5 Rotisserie League, we started off with 100 waiver moves allowed. This turned into 75, 60, and then 50. So I’ll focus on 50 free agency moves allowed. I think a good strategy is to use 75% (~37 free agents) of your waiver limit (if needed of course) in the first 2 months (even during or after the first month) of the season. I think you get a fantastic idea of how players are doing and what players have become and will stay hot ala Carlos Quentin and Nate McLouth (for ¾ of the season at least) in 2008. Most likely you won’t need to spend 75% of your free agent additions by this time, but I say don’t be scared wasting many of your additions by this point. Obviously, you should save 10-15% (~5-7 additions) of your waiver additions for the end of the season contingent on what statistics you may need, and this still allows you 10-15% (~5-7 additions) when you have certain player/positions go to the DL. If you think about it, most players that readily help a team won’t be there by season’s end other than top prospects called up to help a team (David Price in 2008) – I never said waste your waiver order on all these free agents. Make sure if you drafted last and you have the number 1 waiver spot, you save that for when a David Price-Type player in 2009 does become available (Tommy Hanson of the Braves if he lands a Starting/Closing Role) or an Evan Longoria-Type position player (Matt Wieters/Catcher from the O’s if he somehow is still available on your waiver-wire) becomes available.

By using this strategy, you could have added free agents Mark Reynolds/3b, Carlos Quentin/of, Nate Mclouth/of, Alexei Ramirez/mi, and Evan Longoria/3b in 2008. Once a few starters get some innings under their belts and you’re hopefully looking at their whip and k/bb ratio, you could have landed Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker, or even Liriano by season’s end if you were quick enough. These guys helped in almost every pitching category. There’s still 2/3 category pitchers you could have had like Jamie Moyer (wins-16, era, whip) and Mile Pelfrey (wins-13, era) as well.

Here is the following team that could have been drafted either very late or not at all and some potential 2009 breakout candidates per position:

The 2008 All Fantasy Undrafted/Late-Drafted Fantasy Team (& 2009 Potentials):

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Not So Fast Evan!

Evan Longoria was one of the best hitting prospects to come up in 2008, making a big splash in limited time for Tampa Bay.  He also rose to the occasion in October, doing serious clutch damage against numerous playoff pitchers.  In just 122 games during the regular season Longoria put up the following impressive numbers:

Fantasy Spin:  Great power potential from a less deep 3B position in ‘09 is the reasoning behind fantasy managers’ selection of Longoria in the middle of the 2nd round in drafts.  His exact ADP is 21 which is well ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones, and Chris Davis.  Longoria, at 23 years of age, is a great young hitter who is not expected to peak till another 4-5 years.  He’s always racked up his fair share of strikeouts with more than one K in every five at bats in the minor leagues.  This signifies he will not hit for a great average in 2009, so you are pretty much banking on 35+ homeruns when drafting him as early as he’s going.  Longoria further demonstrates one-dimensional abilities as his steal numbers is 2008 were flukish; he had only 8 in 758 minor league at bats. 

In addition, it was recently reported by Rotoworld.com that BJ Upton will be leading off for the Rays in ‘09.  This presents less RBI opportunites for Longoria as he will no longer hit behind the plate discipline guru Upton, who walked 97 times last year.  This does not do anything to boost Longoria’s value and should be the final straw bouncing him to the end of the 2nd or early 3rd round.

When the Tampa Bay Rays were discussing who they should pick with their 1st round pick in 2002 (2nd overall) after the Pirates went with cheap Bryan Bullington, whom they were confident they would sign, there was little or no discussion involved at all. Everybody seemed to agree that the best plan was to pick B.J. Upton, a.k.a Bossman Jr., a kid whose talent was undeniable, and who clearly had a bright future in this league. Picking Upton #2 in 2002 was one of the building block for future success which came to fruition in 2008.

Upton was a key contributor in 2008. Can he have an encore performance in '09?

Now, fast forward to 2009, where the defending AL champs Tampa Bay open up camp, and the Bossman is recovering from off season surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Upton played through this injury in 2008, not being able to hit for power with much success due to his injury, but instead concentrating on his base stealing (44 stolen bases) and his fielding (.983 FP with 378 putouts). Upton’s bat, at full strength, is a great addition to the heart of an already very strong lineup, and Upton provides a few keys to fixing the problems of the ‘08 Rays. Here are the three reasons why the Rays need him back at full strength to win in 2008:

#1) Besides newly added Pat Burrell, Upton is the only legit middle of the order bat the Rays have that hits Lefties well

As a whole, the Rays only have 4 regular projected starters who can hit lefties better then they hit righties: Aki Iwamura, Jason Bartlett, Pat Burrell and BJ Upton. Aki will likely be hitting either lead off, #2 or towards the bottom of the order depending on his performance in ST, Bartlett is comfortable in the 8-9 spot, leaving Burrell and Upton as the middle of the orders answer to LHP. Burrell is a known lefty killer from his days in Philadelphia, and the Rays signed him to do just that for the next two years. Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, the lineups usual middle of the order men, do not project well against lefties (Pena hits a career .226 against LHP and Longoria hit .242 against LHP in his first full season). Against LHP, a fully healthy Upton can fit right in at the #3 spot, protect by Pat Burrell in the cleanup spot. The lineup needs to have an answer to C.C. Sabathia and the other potent lefties in the league.

#2) Upton is one of the few  truly legit base stealers on the Rays have

The Tampa Bay ranked 1st in Stolen Bases in 2008, as they stole 142 bases as a team. Now, consider that B.J. Upton stole 44 bases in that year, providing about 31% of the total. Now, Carl Crawford’s injury reduced him to playing only 109 total games, in which he stole 25 bases. A full healthy Crawford playing for 160 + games is assured at least 40 something steals, so the guy is legit. The only other guy to steal 20 or more bases was Jason Bartlett, the team MVP who batted 9th. The guy is an all round contributor, but at the 9th spot his impact is rather limited. So, basically, if Crawford cannot handle a full 2009, the Rays will need Upton to pick up the SB slack even more.

#3) Upton’s defensive capabilities in center are irreplaceable

Since being drafted in 2002, Upton has been switched to a multitude of defenisve positions based upon need and his own physical gifts. First, Upton played SS during his minor league career, never managing to get a hang of the position and delaying his own emergence to the majors. Finally, Upton made it to the major leagues, where he was played at 2B with decent success, and it looked like Upton had found a place to play. Then, when the Rays signed Aki Iwamura, and eventually moved him to 2B, BJ was put in Center Field. There, in 2008, Upton produced a solid defensive season, and is looking upon staying in CF for a long time. The OF helps show his cannon throwing arm and great fielding better then any position, and there is no doubt that nobody on the Rays can man Center as well as Upton, for few people in the league have more defensive ability in center.

What I am trying to say, in short, is that Upton contributes too the Rays in too many ways and is too valuable to Tampa Bay’s success. For the Rays to succeed this year, they will need him to recover his power stroke and to show his ability as a possible 35-100-40 player.

Ross’ Rapidfire Rays Notes

• Manager Joe Maddon announced Saturday that Carlos Hernandez will be the Rays’ starter for Wednesday’s Spring Training opener against the Reds at Charlotte County Park
• Rays hitters stepped up to the plate to face live pitching for the first time this spring Saturday.