» Chris Jakubauskas

Brandon Morrow returned after giving up the losing hit yesterday to surrender two home runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a great start by Felix Hernandez (7 innings pitched, four hits, no runs on 6 strikeouts). Chris Davis of the Rangers delivered the coup de gras, walking off with the win. Morrow’s not showing the range of pitches he did at the end of last year, when he was in the rotation. 

Seattle drops to 16-19, third place in the AL West.

When the M’s fail to provide a lot of offense, they are very vulnerable. It’s time for some creative reconfiguring of the roster. Morrow’s three hits and two home runs in four batters was pretty miserable. His ERA appears to be heading north of 10, not the stats Seattle needs from its closer.

Tomorrow night, Tacoma native Jon Lester starts for the Red Sox vs. Chris Jakubauskas for the Mariners.

The 15-inning rubber game of the Mariners-Athletics series this weekend marked an important turning point for The Team No One Believed In. Coming back during the first nine innings to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, falling behind by three runs in the 13th but recovering to win on a Jose Lopez single, the Mariners demonstrated that they have the drive to win, regardless of the circumstances. After 33 innings of baseball this weekend, the team still poured onto the field to congratulate Lopez, who also won Friday’s game with a single in the bottom of the ninth. 

A real team has appeared in Seattle this season.

The Wak Ball of the early games has given way to a more traditional hit-and-run game in the last week, but the M’s are still finding ways to grind out wins. Jason Vargas, who won today’s game after two-and-a-third innings of relief, made his 2009 debut, following the long-absent Denny Stark, whose last pitch in the majors was five years ago. Mike Sweeney also contributed his first home run of the season, as did catcher Kenji Johjima, fresh off the disabled list as of Friday. Franklin Gutierrez and Yunieksy Betancourt have both built their averages up to be consistent bottom-of-the-order contributors. The offense of the team is firing on all cylinders in clutch situations. 

The five-run rule, laid out here, has held up and is essential to the Mariners continuing their winning ways. The team has won all but one of the games in which they scored more than five runs and held the opponent to less than five, 10 games in all (almost exactly the 85% of wins in this situation I predicted, though it was little more than a lucky estimate). The M’s have lost 10 games in which they scored less than five runs. The difference, which accounts for the team’s surprising and pleasing 15-10 record, is the five games in which the the M’s pulled a win out in low-scoring games, when both teams scored fewer than five runs. 

Good pitching has made the real difference. Hernandez, Bedard and Washburn have pitched well. Jakubauskus pitched well today, and he was great in his two-hit loss to the White Sox last Tuesday. 

But there are still some weaknesses. Carlos Silva was horrible again on Friday night. I believe Chris Jakubauskas, today’s starter, would be pitching for wins instead of finding his footing if he’d taken Silva’s place on the roster at the beginning of the season. The good news is that GM Jack Zduriencik has given Silva an ultimatum about his performance, the bad news is that there isn’t a clearly prepared replacement candidate at Tacoma. After Vargas’ promotion, Garrett Olson is the closest to a major-league starter. 

It’s time for Zduriencik to package one of the many catchers he has–Jeff Clement has played better since being sent back to Tacoma–with a pitching prospect in the lower minors to get another quality starter, a number four or five guy to lock down at least 11 more wins this season, which Silva won’t deliver.

Does anyone think the Royals or Jays are going to win their divisions?  

Let’s not get too excited, even though last night’s 11-3 drubbing of the Angels, the mighty Angels, will make anyone think the 2009 Mariners are a powerhouse. At 7-2 going into Thursday’s game, the Mariners have the second-best record in the MLB, just behind the Florida Marlins. The difference between those two teams? People are talking about the Marlins being for real and the M’s are still a surprise. Let’s keep it that way, because the first ten games—one sixteenth of the season is behind us—don’t measure the end of any season. 

And the Mariners have always been good when people underestimated them. This is a team that is coming together, learning to play together and could be much better than expected as long as they don’t start taking anything for granted. Don Wakamatsu’s aggressive brand of small ball is fun to watch, whatever the results. These are some good results.

Kenji Johjima is headed to the DL with a hamstring injury. Jamie Burke, who handles the pitching staff very well, replaces him. Jeff Clement begins to look like trade bait, if he can get his numbers up. Burke has started two games to Clement’s five in Tacoma, yet here Jamie is, the “new Pat Borders,” as Mike Snow calls him. 

Sean White joins the team, as well, to shore up the bullpen now that Chris Jakubauskas is in the rotation. The Pullman native will fill in well, but won’t shake the world.

Matt Tuiasosopo goes back to Tacoma, where he will get some much-needed work. After his Spring, he deserves to be with the big club, but he needs to be playing daily. We’ll see him again, soon. 

What’s with Adrian Beltre? His tepid start (.206 average and a paltry .265 SLG with just seven hits in 24 at-bats) suggests he is not fully recovered from off-season surgery. He’s going to heat up soon or, I suspect we’ll begin to hear about his health, again. 

Jakubauskas is pitching sell in the first. He’s thrown 12 of 14 pitches for strikes. Jak strikes out Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu, after giving up a bloop fly to Chone Figgins and getting Howie Kendrick to ground out. The rookie looks good.

The Mariners lineup tonight, as Jr. and Franklin Gutierrez get a night off:

Suzuki, RF
Chavez, CF
Sweeney, DH
Beltre, 3B
Lopez, 2B
Branyan, 1B
Balentien, LF
Johnson, C
Betancourt, SS

I’ll be at the game Friday. Look for new pictures soon.

I noted in passing in Monday’s live-blog of the Opening Day game that as long as the M’s generate more than five runs a game, they will win 12 to 15 more games this season. Today’s 8-5 victory over Oakland demonstrates the rule that an increase in run-production is going to win more games, as the Mariners gained five runs in the eight and ninth innings to recover after falling behind 3-to-5 after the first five innings. Five runs. That’s the daily minimum to reach 80 wins.

With the win, the M’s take the first series of the year and set the stage for a potential sweep with Erik Bedard starting against rookie Tim Cahill on Sunday. Brandon Morrow’s shaky but effective outing today was reassuring, however it will be a month or more before this bullpen approaches a “solid” rating. I’m still expecting to see Chad Cordero, the former Nationals closer whom Seattle signed to a minor-league deal during Spring Training, in a Mariners uniform by June 15. David Aardsma and Chris Jakubauskas, who got his first win in relief Friday, are looking very solid.

Jakubauskas is still the favorite, in my opinion, to take the first starter role that opens; Carlos Silva has two more starts to show the new management he should be starting.

Ichiro is back Wednesday, the day after Seattle’s home opener, where he will appear but not play. His rehab is simply picking up where he left off in the WBC and Spring Training—expect full performance from Day One. Matt Tuiasosopo, alas, will head to Tacoma to make room for Ichiro. Look for Tui to get at least one at-bat or start at third base on Sunday, as Manager Don Wakamatsu has said everybody on the roster will play in the first week.

Unfortunately, Carlos Truinfel, Seattle’s hot AA shortstop prospect broke is fibula (the smaller of the two bones in the lower leg) sliding into second base in Friday’s game, the second of the Jaxx’s season. It will probably mean he doesn’t make the jump from AA Jacksonville to the Mariners this season, though we could still see him when rosters expand in September. Truinfel had a great Spring and was the hottest bat in the Arizona Fall League last year at just 18. He turned 19 February 27th.