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NL East Preview/Projection

*The NL East is the only division that can attempt to match the AL East with a lineup of…

Jose Reyes (ss-NYM)-With the epitome of range at SS and speed & OBP now at the top of the lineup

(120-17-68-60-295)

Chase Utley (2b-PHL)-The patience to be the perfect #2 hitter but the greatness to bat anywhere

(115-30-110-13-296)

Hanley Ramirez (lf-FLA)-Talent to bat leadoff or third & now he has Bonaficio and Maybin to drive in

(116-33-106-29-303)

Ryan Howard (1b-PHL)-HR & RBI leader of the MLB last year and again this year with a better AVG

(96-45-135-1-275)

David Wright (3b-NYM)-Has Reyes & Murphy in front and Beltran & Delgado behind; Got to love his line

(112-31-122-20-305)

Carlos Beltran (cf-NYM)-Batting 5^th will hurt his runs but gold glove CF with power & speed combo

(92-26-115-22-279)

Brian McCann (c-ATL)-Great line at Catcher; Another year under his belt and less weight above his belt

(68-24-94-3-298)

Jimmy Rollins (dh-PHL)-Rather Reyes at SS & Hanley in LF, but I’ll take Rollins at DH against the AL East

(119-19-75-39-278)

Jeff Francoeur (rf-ATL)-Gun for an arm and a rebound year for our last OF spot

(77-22-90-3-269)

….and a rotation of:

Johan Santana (NYM)-18 straight starts without a loss and A NEW BULLPEN – 20+ wins?

(20-2.85-1.15-209)

Cole Hamels (PHL)-Same fastball/changeup repertoire that BAFFLES hitters; Health issues?

(16-3.19-1.09-194)

Derek Lowe (ATL)-Durable. That’s all I have to say, but with all his groundouts, he would probably be effective even with Colorado, or Texas.

(14-3.75-1.25-140)

Ricky Nolasco (FLA)-Still underrated? Doubt it, but he’ll be almost as good this year.

(14-3.84-1.21-171)

Josh Johnson (FLA)-Better k-rate than Nolasco with Worse WHIP, but stud if healthy.

(14-3.65-1.33-175)

…and a solid bullpen of Brad Lidge(38sv), Francisco Rodriguez(42sv), JJ Putz(6sv), Mike Gonzalez(30sv), Matt Lindstrom(23sv), Joel Hanrahan(25sv) and let us not forget about ambidextrous Billy Wagner pitching with determination and for another contract later in the year.

*Breaking down the NL East by position and using a sample rank system, I came up with the following (as objectively as possible):

c: McCann(atl-5) – Really no other C in the NL East can compare

1b: Ryan Howard(phl-5pts); Carlos Delgado(nym-4pts); Jorge Cantu(fla-3pts); Adam Dunn(was-3pts); Casey Kotchman(atl-2pts) - Howard is the clear favorite; A somewhat offensive bounce-back from Kotchman is in place; Delgado, Cantu, and Dunn should all be solid again; Cantu is definitely still underrated with Bonifacio, Maybin sometimes, and Hanley Ramirez in front of him.

2b: Chase Utley(phl-5pts);Dan Uggla(fla-3pts);Kelly Johnson(atl-2pts); Luis Castillo(nym-1pt) – Castillo can be an effective 2b still at the 8-spot in the Mets lineup; Kelly Johnson can go 85-17-75-9-287 with maturity and confidence. Obviously, the Nationals have a 2^nd baseman in Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard – I just don’t think they’re worth writing about.

3b: David Wright(nym-5pts); Chipper Jones(atl-4pts); Ryan Zimmerman(was-3pts) Emilio Bonifacio (fla-3pts) – Chipper does deserve 5 points along with Wright if he could just stay healthy enough; If Bonifacio sticks to leadoff he can be a runs and sb stud; and Zimmerman should have a 85-20-85-5-285 line. His defense is fantastic and he has potential for 85-25-95-5-290. Pedro Feliz isn’t worth ranking albeit solid defense.

ss: Hanley Ramirez(fla-5pts); Jose Reyes(nym-4pts); Jimmy Rollins (phl-4pts); Yunel Escobar(atl-2pts) – I wanted to give 5 points to both Rollins and Reyes as well, but It’s true that Hanley is in an offensive class all by himself since he’ll have lots of rbi opportunities this year; I personally think Reyes can belt 19 home runs this year, but 16hr + 60sb is beautiful with a stellar .293-.297 avg.

lf: Raul Ibanez(tilde over the n)(phl-5pts); Daniel Murphy(nym-4pts); Matt Diaz(atl-3pts); Josh Willingham (was-2pts) – I love Daniel Murphy batting 2^nd in the Mets lineup. I think a very healthy 90-17-75-7-286 is very possible; Ibanez will be stellar there in the Phillies Lineup; Matt Diaz with playing time can be very good. Along with Brian McCann, he slimmed down a bit.

cf: Carlos Beltran(nym-5pts); Shane Victorino(phl-4pts); Cameron Maybin(fla-3pts); Lastings Milledge(was-2 pts); Jordan Schaeffer (atl-2pts) – Jordan Schaeffer is young and good. He’s already got 2 hr this year. He could switch with Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar for the top of the lineup if slow starts occur for either of the 2 or when Chipper sits (which will be enough) and Omar Infante is in the lineup. I think he can be good for 17hr-15sb. Maybin should bat 2^nd but may find himself at the bottom of the lineup enough to hurt. His lineup spot should have the following breakdown: 50% batting 8^th, 35% batting 2^nd; and 15% batting lead-off. A line of 85-15-65-25-269 seems great for where he went in drafts; Like I said prior, Beltran will lose out on runs and protection batting 5^th, but he should bat 4^th enough against lefties when Delgado bats 5^th.

rf: Jeff Francoeur(atl-5pts); Jayson Werth(phl-4pts); Jeremy Hermida(fla-2pts); Elijah Dukes-Austin Kearns(was-2pts); Church-Sheffield(nym-2pts) – Hermida was regarded very highly just a few years ago, and the rbi opportunities are there. He could get time batting 2^nd as well. I actually like him for a line of 75-18-75-6-260; Werth should be very good when healthy since right field is his. I see 24hr-15sb due to injury concern; Platoons and split-time between the Mets and Nationals right field situations should yield above average numbers. The difference between them and Francoeur however is obviously not nearly as great between say Chase Utley at 2b and Ronnie Belliard at 2b so I think they deserve 2 pts to Francoeur’s 5 pts.

sp1: Johan Santana(nym-5pts); Cole Hamels(phl-5pts); Derek Lowe(atl-4pts); Ricky Nolasco(fla-4pts)

sp2: Josh Johnson(fla-5pts); Javier Vazquez(atl-3pts); Brett Myers(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez (nym-3pts) – To me, Josh Johnson is clearly the best #2 starter here with the other 3 teams having fairly similar numbers at the #2 rotation spot. The thing with the Mets is I’m not sure who the #2 will be by year’s end – same for their number 3 and 4 starters, and I’m a Mets Fan; Brett Myers Could be good at times and a mess at others. I think he’s better than Moyer this year (even though Moyer may be ageless the way he pitches) so I’ll put him here and Moyer in the 3-whole.

sp3: Jair Jurjjens(atl-4pts); Jamie Moyer(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts); Volstad(fla-3pts)

sp4: Joe Blanton(phl-4pts); Kenshin Kawakami(atl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts) – I think Kawakami can be as effective as the teams’ other #4’s since no one has seen him.

sp5/Minor League P call-ups: Tommy Hanson(atl-4pts); Jordan Zimmerman(was-3pts); Carlos Carrasco(phl-3pts); Jon Niese(nym-1pts) – the Phillies, Nat’s, and especially the Braves have a future Ace or #2 in the whole, while the Mets, to me have a future #4. I think the Phillies will need Carrasco quicker than the Mets need Niese or Braves need Hanson, but Hanson is the best among the new wave of NL East Starters. Jordan Zimmerman could and should put up better than league average numbers in his first season.

P.S. Livan Hernandez will be horrendous for the Mets. Hopefully they sign Pedro Martinez or Jon Niese and Tim Redding can be effective enough. However, I do see a deadline SP deal for the Mets, which comes later in the post.

closer: Brad Lidge(phl-5pts); Krod(nym-5pts); Mike Gonzalez(atl-3pts); Matt Lindstrom(fla-2pts); Joel Hanrahan(was-2pts)-Krod and Lidge will be great again. Gonzalez is underrated and can save 35 games without Rafael Soriano getting a chance. Tommy Hanson could get some opportunities if both Gonzalez and Soriano are unhealthy, but I think they’ll keep him as a SP as he sores to the Majors. Lindstrom can be very good with his 100mph fast ball and slider so long as he stays healthy. Per pitch, he was the hardest thrower in the majors last year, and let’s not forget about Jon Broxton/LAD or Joel Zumaya/DET.

setup: JJ Putz(nym-5pts); Rafael Soriano(atl-2pts) – If Krod goes down, the Mets should still be OK because of JJ Putz - just OK. JC Romero of PHL could have been here if he didn’t get suspended for substance abuse, but hey thanks for helping the Phillies win the World Series and thanks for playing in the World Baseball Classic. Horrendousness.

Figure 1.0: Results

Point-Breakdown:

*Obviously, this is a very basic statistical way (almost a weight system) of ranking the NL East, but still feasible. Those not ranked, still received 1 pt for the contingent positions. The above system ranks each team as follows: Phillies (53pts) Mets (51pts) Braves (48pts) Marlins (38pts) and of course lastly, the Nationals (25pts). So here, the Phillies rank 1^st. However, there are definitely contingencies this year, such as how the Braves play against the Phillies. They were 4-14 against the Phillies last year. The Braves rotation with Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, and Hanson later on in the season, will be much much better, and their offense should pick up quite a bit as well. Most Importantly – The Mets. They had the 3^rd most blown saves last season with 29 (Both the Cardinals and Mariners had 31). The additions by subtractions and additions by great additions/call-ups (Krod, Putz, Sean Green, Brian Stokes, Bobby Parnell) should subtract at least 15 of those 29 blown saves – and probably many more!!! All three referenced NL East teams need to watch out for the Marlins, but I don’t think they have the bullpen and rotation depth to compete for 162 games in the 2^nd best division in the Major Leagues for 2009.

Mets Trade Rumors:

*Lastly, there will always be trade rumors throughout the season, and at the deadline. It may be more intense this year than last due to the economy, and some non-competing teams may be very willing to rid of their expensive talent. I think the Mets will be big players in a sundry of discussions – mainly with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and potentially the Padres. I think Erik Bedard (sp) along with Jose Lopez (2b), Roy Halladay (sp), as well as Jake Peavy(sp) would be fantastic additions after Johan Santana in the Mets Rotation. Another interesting difference this year, can be the Mets POTENTIAL willingness to trade Fernando Martinez, the Mets top OF prospect since they found a stud in Daniel Murphy. I think an offer like Fernando Martinez(of), Jon Niese(sp), and either a Reese Haven(ss) or Brad Holt(p) + Nick Evans (of) could potentially help us land a Roy Halladay or Erik Bedard. If we can land Jose Lopez for 2b along with Erik Bedard, I don’t see how the Mets wouldn’t easily win the NL East.

Mets Roster Additions:

*I think Sheffield was actually a good right-handed bat of the bench for the New York Mets, and

can be a great platoon with Ryan Church (left-handed). Livan Hernandez/sp just won’t be effective anymore, and the Mets should attempt to woo Pedro Martinez for 1 year at 2.5 million.

*2009 NL East Projections: (Honestly I think the Phillies and Braves are Interchangeable)

1- New York Mets (91-71)

2- Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) – WC

3- Atlanta Braves (87-75)

4- Florida Marlins (85-77)

5- Washington Nationals (63-99)

*Very Early 2009 MLB Playoffs Projections:

Mets vs. Dodgers

Phillies vs. Cubs

NL Championship: Mets vs. Cubs

WS Championship: Mets vs. Red Sox

WS Champions: Red Sox

AL Championship: Boston vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs. Angels

Yankees (WC) vs. Twins

Did You Know:

Did you know in college, Mike Lieberthal had a Homerun Cycle – He hit a grand slam, a 3-run homerun, a 2-run homerun, and a solo shot.  I read this on the back on his 1991 Topps Rookie Card! Amazing!!!

Did you know – The founder of this Site, Jeff Gross’, Favorite player was [LAD/TEX/ANA/TOT/CHC/SEA/SAN/FLA Pitcher] Ismael Valdez. Fantastic.

Also Fantasy-eers – Don’t forget Brandon Inge/c-3b on the Tigers is eligible at CATCHER! But make sure you have Pujol’s avg on the team, b/c Inge will hurt that badly!

RIP Nick Adenhart. Best wishes to the Angels (no corny joke), his friends, and most importantly, his family.

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     First off, who else thought that Javier Vazquez’s Braves Debut was awesome? I have to admit, when the Braves traded Brent Lillibridge for him, I was pretty upset. Looking back on today, I don’t know where I stand now, Lillibridge was one of my favorites but it seems to me that Javy can be pretty valuable to the starting rotation! Today, for example, he gave up three runs in six innings against the 2008 World Champs, the Phillies.

      The bullpen is something I couldn’t say the same about. When Vazquez left the gam after the sixth inning, the score was 10-3 Atlanta. In the seventh, the Phillies scored eight runs, gaining the league. The only real highlight about it was Peter Moylan’s first appearance coming back from Tommy John Surgery. He gave up four runs, but you can guess he was over-excited.  He told Mark Bowman that he was, and that his mechanics were off. Which explains the two walk in runs. He’s a nice guy, I really have to give him credit. When I saw him at Autograph Fest in January, he was sweet to both me and my nephew and he’s one of my favorites. Blaine Boyer, he’s not someone I really trust in any game. I suppose that’s not fair, but that’s just my opinion. He also walked in four runs and until Jorge Campillo ended the inning  after giving up a run, the nightmare seemed endless.

     Even with the poor bullpen support, the Braves still had a decent day with the bat. Both Chipper Jones and Garrett Anderson were scratched from the starting line-up, but even that couldn’t silence Brian McCann, Jeff Francoeur, Jordan Schafer, Matt Diaz and the rest of the line-up. McCann, Diaz, and the rookie Schafer each had homered. Diaz was making his first appearance of the season in Anderson’s place. Oddly enought, after Diaz’s two-out ninth inning homer gave the Bravos some hope, Anderson struck out to end the game. So the Braves walked away with the series, not the sweep.

     Now, Atlanta will come home and open up for their hometown fans against the Nationals on Friday after they have Thursday off. I’ll be at Friday’s game and will definatley share picutes and any stories. 

Today feels like Christmas Eve for me. Knowing tomorrow is the season opener, I’m like a little kid waiting for Santa Claus to come bring me my presents. I have my tv set to MLB Network and even though I’m not a Phillies or a Braves fan, I’ll be watching tonights game. That game is my present I get to open on Christmas Eve.

Tomorrow should be an interesting day for the Tribe. They open their season in Texas, then they come back to Cleveland for a weekend before they are back on the road.  The first week of the season usually does not forecast the Indians season, at least not for the past few years. In 06, the Indians opened up the season on a hot streak and then fell hard the rest of the season. The 07 season, the Tribe started the season average and ended up winning the Division and last year, they started the season by winning the series against the White Sox and then fell after that. So don’t expect to know how the Indians will be the remainder of the season after the first 2 series against the Rangers and the Jays.

On Saturday, the Indians finalized their 25 man roster with the usualy 12 pitchers, 13 position players. With the versatility of some of the players being able to play both the infield and outfield, the Indians chose to go with only 4 regular outfielders – Sizemore, Francisco, Choo and Crowe. The surprising man to make the 25 man roster would had to have been Josh Barfield. With the addition of Barfield to the roster, that leaves the Indians with Carroll, Garko, Cabrera, Peralta, DeRosa and Barfield for the Infield.

The 2009 season is expected to be a good one for the Indians and lets just hope they don’t crack under the pressure like they did in both the 06 and 08 seasons.

Sometimes, players can work magic. Following the accounts of excitement among Mariners, it is clear Ken Griffey Jr.’s return stills last year’s stormy weather in the clubhouse. Days after we heard from J.J. Putz, who was traded to the Mets over the winter, that Ichiro Suzuki wasn’t a team player, the signing of Griffey has the Mariners Spring Training camp snapping with a new energy. The Kid won’t arrive in camp until Saturday.

Ichiro & Griffey, Mark Harrison, The Seattle Times

As Jerry Brewer of The Seattle Times wrote in 2007, Junior brings out the best in people, particularly Ichiro, and The News Tribune’s Larry LaRue makes the point that Ichiro will enjoy having the attention focus on someone else. Watching Ichiro, it has always been clear that he plays best when competing to be the best. During 2008, the competition among Mariners was only off-field, to see who could be in the worst mood.

The entire team is reportedly “ecstatic,” according to LaRue, and John Hickey at the Seattle P-I says the team is “buzzing” with excitement, leading me to make the bold claim that the Mariners will add 10 wins over the season because Junior is in the dugout and on the field. The Baseball Prospectus has projected a 67-95 record for the Mariners in 2009. I’ll be surprised if the team doesn’t win 77 games, which would place them firmly in third place in the AL West, just because the team is coalescing around Junior’s presence, as well as Ichiro’s opportunity to battle for the limelight and the general influence of confidence on the rest of the team.

In other news, Erik Bedard appears to be poised to have one of his good seasons, at least he’s smiling. Of course, when he’s throwing baseballs, he can be very good. In 2007, before the Mariners made a blockbuster five-player deal to get the left-hander from Baltimore, he was arguably as good as Johan Santana. Bedard got 1.41 strikes per inning pitched to Santana’s 1.07 SO/IP, albeit Santana is always more durable than Bedard. We shall see if, should he encounter any setbacks, whether he’ll disprove the criticism of other players who say he doesn’t pitch through pain. 

With Bedard on his walk year, and a Scott Boras Mark Pieper client, the M’s have to hope he comes out of the gate strong so he can be moved for some young talent. Perhaps the Atlanta Braves, despite losing the Griffey sweepstakes, will be in the hunt in the NL East and willing to trade Tommy Hanson and Jordan Schafer for a healthy Bedard.

Not again…As a Mets fan, I am truly sick and tired of seemingly empty threats! “We Are the team to beat!” Mr. Beltran made that very clear last season as well. He had it backwards…the Mets were the “Team to be beaten”. So in comes K-Rod…who I must say I am very excited to watch this season, proclaiming the very same thing.

Here is the problem with this statement. You are clearly aiming these words at the reigning champs, The Philadelphia Phillies. We already know that this team responds to these bulletin board threats, so why start this already?

As a lifetime Mets fan, I have learned one thing, there are never any locks or guarantees! Just play the game, and prove it on the field. Come August and September, I really hope the Mets are looking down on the Marlins, Braves, and yes…even the Phillies, but until that time, I don’t want to hear it! Save it for the field K-Rod!