» Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow returned after giving up the losing hit yesterday to surrender two home runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a great start by Felix Hernandez (7 innings pitched, four hits, no runs on 6 strikeouts). Chris Davis of the Rangers delivered the coup de gras, walking off with the win. Morrow’s not showing the range of pitches he did at the end of last year, when he was in the rotation. 

Seattle drops to 16-19, third place in the AL West.

When the M’s fail to provide a lot of offense, they are very vulnerable. It’s time for some creative reconfiguring of the roster. Morrow’s three hits and two home runs in four batters was pretty miserable. His ERA appears to be heading north of 10, not the stats Seattle needs from its closer.

Tomorrow night, Tacoma native Jon Lester starts for the Red Sox vs. Chris Jakubauskas for the Mariners.

If your fantasy leagues have waiver wire/free agent addition restrictions like all my leagues do, there is a strategy I like to attend to, and I’ll give you the reasoning. Most of my league-mates make fun of me for picking up an infinite amount of players as soon as possible and only having 5/10 additions allowed left by the season’s end. In a standard 12 team 5×5 Rotisserie League, we started off with 100 waiver moves allowed. This turned into 75, 60, and then 50. So I’ll focus on 50 free agency moves allowed. I think a good strategy is to use 75% (~37 free agents) of your waiver limit (if needed of course) in the first 2 months (even during or after the first month) of the season. I think you get a fantastic idea of how players are doing and what players have become and will stay hot ala Carlos Quentin and Nate McLouth (for ¾ of the season at least) in 2008. Most likely you won’t need to spend 75% of your free agent additions by this time, but I say don’t be scared wasting many of your additions by this point. Obviously, you should save 10-15% (~5-7 additions) of your waiver additions for the end of the season contingent on what statistics you may need, and this still allows you 10-15% (~5-7 additions) when you have certain player/positions go to the DL. If you think about it, most players that readily help a team won’t be there by season’s end other than top prospects called up to help a team (David Price in 2008) – I never said waste your waiver order on all these free agents. Make sure if you drafted last and you have the number 1 waiver spot, you save that for when a David Price-Type player in 2009 does become available (Tommy Hanson of the Braves if he lands a Starting/Closing Role) or an Evan Longoria-Type position player (Matt Wieters/Catcher from the O’s if he somehow is still available on your waiver-wire) becomes available.

By using this strategy, you could have added free agents Mark Reynolds/3b, Carlos Quentin/of, Nate Mclouth/of, Alexei Ramirez/mi, and Evan Longoria/3b in 2008. Once a few starters get some innings under their belts and you’re hopefully looking at their whip and k/bb ratio, you could have landed Cliff Lee, Edinson Volquez, Kevin Slowey, and Scott Baker, or even Liriano by season’s end if you were quick enough. These guys helped in almost every pitching category. There’s still 2/3 category pitchers you could have had like Jamie Moyer (wins-16, era, whip) and Mile Pelfrey (wins-13, era) as well.

Here is the following team that could have been drafted either very late or not at all and some potential 2009 breakout candidates per position:

The 2008 All Fantasy Undrafted/Late-Drafted Fantasy Team (& 2009 Potentials):

I noted in passing in Monday’s live-blog of the Opening Day game that as long as the M’s generate more than five runs a game, they will win 12 to 15 more games this season. Today’s 8-5 victory over Oakland demonstrates the rule that an increase in run-production is going to win more games, as the Mariners gained five runs in the eight and ninth innings to recover after falling behind 3-to-5 after the first five innings. Five runs. That’s the daily minimum to reach 80 wins.

With the win, the M’s take the first series of the year and set the stage for a potential sweep with Erik Bedard starting against rookie Tim Cahill on Sunday. Brandon Morrow’s shaky but effective outing today was reassuring, however it will be a month or more before this bullpen approaches a “solid” rating. I’m still expecting to see Chad Cordero, the former Nationals closer whom Seattle signed to a minor-league deal during Spring Training, in a Mariners uniform by June 15. David Aardsma and Chris Jakubauskas, who got his first win in relief Friday, are looking very solid.

Jakubauskas is still the favorite, in my opinion, to take the first starter role that opens; Carlos Silva has two more starts to show the new management he should be starting.

Ichiro is back Wednesday, the day after Seattle’s home opener, where he will appear but not play. His rehab is simply picking up where he left off in the WBC and Spring Training—expect full performance from Day One. Matt Tuiasosopo, alas, will head to Tacoma to make room for Ichiro. Look for Tui to get at least one at-bat or start at third base on Sunday, as Manager Don Wakamatsu has said everybody on the roster will play in the first week.

Unfortunately, Carlos Truinfel, Seattle’s hot AA shortstop prospect broke is fibula (the smaller of the two bones in the lower leg) sliding into second base in Friday’s game, the second of the Jaxx’s season. It will probably mean he doesn’t make the jump from AA Jacksonville to the Mariners this season, though we could still see him when rosters expand in September. Truinfel had a great Spring and was the hottest bat in the Arizona Fall League last year at just 18. He turned 19 February 27th.