» Billy Wagner

I read the Mets Rejection of a Roy Halladay trade first via MetsBlog.com: According to Matthew Cerrone, ‘Jon Heyman of SI.com believes the Mets rejected a deal from the Jays for RHP Roy Halladay, in return for OF Fernando Martinez, Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese and 17–year-old SS Ruben Tejada.’

Honestly, that’s a lot. Then, a poll asked if you would do this trade or not and at the time I voted (no), 75% of the people said yes they would do it and only 25% said no (on the dot). I’m surprised. This is a lot to give up. I think most of the same people said not to give up the farm in any trade in an earlier poll on the site. And like Cerrone goes on to say, the Mets would keep Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia, which are probably the Mets top two pitching prospects now so that is attractive, but again, I personally think this is way too much.

Ruben Tejada may be ahead of Wilmer Flores as our top middle infield/ss prospect, however that said, we do have another very young, very talented ss prospect in Flores. We do have 2 better sp prospects than Jon Niese. I think this was the Blue Jays thinking too. The Mets are giving up their top OF prospect in Fernando Martinez and top RP prospect in Bobby Parnell, but not even their top sp or ss prospect, however, with both Billy Wagner and JJ Putz gone via free agency next year (obviously assuming the inevitable), I think Bobby Parnell is too important – maybe the most important immediate provider in the deal.

So should Omar Minaya be fired (I mean counter)? I think we can attempt to counter with Fernando Martinez/of, Jon Niese/sp, Brad Holt/sp and Jefry Marte/3b for Roy Halladay/sp + Alex Rios/of. I think Marte is more expendable at 3b behind David Wright than Ruben Tejada or Wilmer Flores at ss behind Jose Reyes. And if we lose Fernando Martinez we’d need Rios plus we would take his salary off the Jays’ back.

*In my crazy idealland, I thought maybe Jon Niese, Brad Holt, John Maine, and Jefry Marte/Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores could land Halladay & Rios, and the Mets can then trade Fernando Martinez & Mike Pelfrey/Brad Holt/Jenrry Mejia & Santos/Thole/Pena/c for Victor Martinez yielding:

a 2010 rotation of: Roy Halladay; Johan Santana; Oliver Perez; 2 of Pelfrey/Holt/Mejia/League-worse-than-averages like Livan/Redding/&Nieve this year.

and a 2010 lineup of: Jose Reyes/ss; David Wright/3b; Victor Martinez/c; Carlos Beltran/cf; Alex Rios/lf; Jeff Francoeur/rf; Daniel Murphy/1b; Castillo/Cora/Flores/Tejada/Havens/2b.

and then in lala land, I thought maybe (a healthy) Jose Reyes/ss (maybe in the off season) can go to the Red Sox for Michael Bowden/sp and (Clay Buchholz/sp or Justin Masterson/sp & Daniel Bard/rp). If they want Oliver Perez/sp and 1/2 his salary, that would be fantastic. The Mets could than use Tejada/Flores/Havens/Cora at SS and sign Orlando Hudson for 2b allowing a 2010 lineup of: Hudson-Wright-VMartinez-Beltran-Rios-Francoeur-Murphy-Tejada/Flores/Havens/Cora and a 2010 Rotation of Halladay-Santana-Buchholz-Bowden-Nieve/Mejia/Holt/Pelfrey. And fire-bucket!

In my prior post (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/major-league-baseball/trade-david-wright-to-the-red-sox/), I referenced a potential trade from Joseph Delgrippo of Bleacher Report where David Wright and Fernando Martinez would go to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, and 2 of Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, or Justin Masterson. This is a lot, and I’d be surprised to see that much going the Mets way. The Mets obviously and blatantly need to be shaken up from the core-on-down – and then some. If this bullpen went with the team last year, maybe we’d have won the penant. Maybe we’d be 10 games up this year, but neither is the case, and although eventually the Mets will have John Maine, Oliver Perez, Billy Wagner, JJ Putz, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran coming off the DL at random, unknown times, and although my David Wright Passion Bucket has always been full, that trade scenario from Delgrippo of Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/213365-new-york-mets-need-to-make-a-trade-for-the-future) sounds very intriguing. To assure such a trade and a top-down shake-up why not send both Wright & Reyes to the Sawx?

So, here – naturally, are more crazy trade scenarios. Let’s play Mets GM:

1) David Wright/3b; Jose Reyes/ss; Oliver Perez/sp (& his salary) for Jacoby Ellsbury/of; Clay Buchholz/sp; Michael Bowden/sp; Daniel Bard/sp; and Lars Anderson/1b. The Mets could send a 3rd tier pitching prospect  (Scott Shaw/Mike Antonini/Scott Moviel) or young cf prospect their way in addition. This provides the Red Sox with their future ss & 3b and one dominant lineup.

2) After the Mets acquire 3 top-notch pitching prospects, their others (Jon Niese/Brad Holt/Jenrry Mejia) become a little more expendable. Jenrry Mejia is catching eyes finally. So the Mets could then trade Jon Niese/sp; Brad Holt/sp; Wilmer Flores/Robinson Tejada/or Reese Havens/ss for Roy Halladay. If not Flores/Tejada/Havens then Maybe Ryan Church/of + John Maine/sp, but it seems the Blue Jays will want a ss prospect along with sp prospects for Doc Halladay. The Mets could potentially offer Church + Maine in addition to the deal for Alex Rios/of, if the Jays would like not to pay his contract.

3) Finally, contingent on the above deal, the Mets could offer Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church/of or Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans/of-1b in addition to Mike Pelfrey or John Maine for Victor Martinez/c from the Cleveland Indians.

So for an easy view:

1-Wright, Reyes, Oliver & Salary for Ellsbury, Lars, Buchholz, Bowden, Bard

2-Niese, Holt, Tejada/Flores/Havens or Maine & Church for Halladay

3-F.Martinez & Church or Dan Murphy & Evans + Pelfrey or Maine for V.Martinez

There are some potential 2010 Free Agents the Mets could look at for their infield as rentals before the other 2 ss that don’t get traded (Tejada/Flores/Havens) and Jefry Marte/3b are ready for the infield (Adrian Beltre and Orlando Hudson included). So the 2010-2012 Mets Lineup could look as follows: Jacoby Ellsbury/cf-Robinson Tejada/2b-Victor Martinez/c-Carlos Beltran/rf-Lars Anderson/1b-Fernando Martinez or Daniel Murphy/lf-Jefry Marte/3b-Reese Havens/2b

Even better, the 2010-2012 Mets Rotation could look as follows: Roy Halladay-Johan Santana-Mike Pelfrey/John Maine-Clay Buchholz-Michael Bowden/Daniel Bard/Jenrry Mejia/Fernando Nieve(why not).

Not only is this team quite talented but very young – it does create a nice payroll with only 5 players with expensive contracts (Beltran,VMartinez,Santana,Halladay,Krod).

Guys like Halladay and Vmart can more than keep the team in contention right now with such a rotation, while the young Sawx pitching prospects can dominate with Santana and a resigned Halladay there-after.

Scold away.

After the first loss to the Phillies this past series, MetsBlog.com writer, Regis Courtemanche wrote, “Win or lose, I love the way the Mets are playing right now.  They seem completely focused on the task at hand, and Citi Field seems to have finally come alive. Still disappointing to let this one get away though.” FYI, MetsBlog is one of the best (Mets) Blogs out there. To be honest, I disagree with the statement, however the Mets are without their starting SS, 1b, 2 SP’s and both our set-up men. That’s right – “both.” Eventually this season, the Mets will have Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, JJ Putz, Billy Wagner, Oliver Perez (and John Maine now) all coming off the DL. The Phillies are only 4 games ahead, but with a bullpen of K-rod, and potentially healthy and effective relievers, such as Wagner and Putz, the Mets rotation will only have to pitch 6 effective innings each night (for the most part). And that’s great because it seems Redding , Maine , and Oliver (and often times Santana and Pelfrey) can never pass that plateau. The offense will have to come out romping, however – something they couldn’t do last year and something they haven’t been able to do this season even prior to Reyes and Delgado going down. With that said, I’m still very willing to “wait and see” how the Mets perform after Reyes, Delgado, Maine, Oliver, Putz, and Wagner come back, however, the question is and will be – is it too late?

Do the Mets need to do something to shake the team up? In a prior post (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/major-league-baseball/lets-play-gm-mets-crazy-trade-scenarios/), I talked about the potential need to shake up the team, and I threw out some crazy trade scenarios. The reality is, people, reporters, and teams are catching on that the Red Sox have 9 at least effective or ready major league starters. It’s also fairly clear they could use an effective shortstop, which is where, to me, the Mets should come in to play. I love Reyes, but could he land us both Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden? I think he could. I think that’s worth it – for both teams. We could potentially add a catching prospect to the deal (Francisco Pena or Josh Thole) – they’re young, but the Red Sox have and may have a need for a catcher in the future if they don’t trade for/sign Joe Mauer/Twins (after or during) next year. Another potential aspect I would add to to the deal (if I were Omar Minaya) is Oliver Perez. This is only to free up salaray to trade for and sign another need (Matt Holliday)? That’s not essential, but if the Red Sox were willing to take on Perez’s salary in addition to losing their top 2 pitching prospects in the deal, then I would do that. I’d then, however, ask for a more than effective reliever: Manny Delcarmen/Takashi Saito. So i’d potentially like to see:

Mets Receive: Clay Buchholz/sp; Michael Bowden/sp; Takashi Saito/rp; Jed Lowrie/ss

Red Sox Receive: Jose Reyes/ss; Oliver Perez/sp; Josh Thole or Francisco Pena/c

I guess there’s a contingency – Jose Reyes’ health. Would this prevent such a trade? The Sox do still have Nick Green and Julio Lugo to hold down the ss job while Reyes is out. Again this would then allow us to potentially go for Matt Holliday, Mark Derosa, or other outfielders via trade this season or free agency after, so Daniel Murphy could stay at first next year with the assumption that Carlos Delgado will be gone. Our lineup would obviously hurt without Reyes for the rest of the year, but if we trade for another bat for the lineup, the Rotation with Buchholz and or Bowden would be much more effective than Tim Redding.

Agreed?

NL East Preview/Projection

*The NL East is the only division that can attempt to match the AL East with a lineup of…

Jose Reyes (ss-NYM)-With the epitome of range at SS and speed & OBP now at the top of the lineup

(120-17-68-60-295)

Chase Utley (2b-PHL)-The patience to be the perfect #2 hitter but the greatness to bat anywhere

(115-30-110-13-296)

Hanley Ramirez (lf-FLA)-Talent to bat leadoff or third & now he has Bonaficio and Maybin to drive in

(116-33-106-29-303)

Ryan Howard (1b-PHL)-HR & RBI leader of the MLB last year and again this year with a better AVG

(96-45-135-1-275)

David Wright (3b-NYM)-Has Reyes & Murphy in front and Beltran & Delgado behind; Got to love his line

(112-31-122-20-305)

Carlos Beltran (cf-NYM)-Batting 5^th will hurt his runs but gold glove CF with power & speed combo

(92-26-115-22-279)

Brian McCann (c-ATL)-Great line at Catcher; Another year under his belt and less weight above his belt

(68-24-94-3-298)

Jimmy Rollins (dh-PHL)-Rather Reyes at SS & Hanley in LF, but I’ll take Rollins at DH against the AL East

(119-19-75-39-278)

Jeff Francoeur (rf-ATL)-Gun for an arm and a rebound year for our last OF spot

(77-22-90-3-269)

….and a rotation of:

Johan Santana (NYM)-18 straight starts without a loss and A NEW BULLPEN – 20+ wins?

(20-2.85-1.15-209)

Cole Hamels (PHL)-Same fastball/changeup repertoire that BAFFLES hitters; Health issues?

(16-3.19-1.09-194)

Derek Lowe (ATL)-Durable. That’s all I have to say, but with all his groundouts, he would probably be effective even with Colorado, or Texas.

(14-3.75-1.25-140)

Ricky Nolasco (FLA)-Still underrated? Doubt it, but he’ll be almost as good this year.

(14-3.84-1.21-171)

Josh Johnson (FLA)-Better k-rate than Nolasco with Worse WHIP, but stud if healthy.

(14-3.65-1.33-175)

…and a solid bullpen of Brad Lidge(38sv), Francisco Rodriguez(42sv), JJ Putz(6sv), Mike Gonzalez(30sv), Matt Lindstrom(23sv), Joel Hanrahan(25sv) and let us not forget about ambidextrous Billy Wagner pitching with determination and for another contract later in the year.

*Breaking down the NL East by position and using a sample rank system, I came up with the following (as objectively as possible):

c: McCann(atl-5) – Really no other C in the NL East can compare

1b: Ryan Howard(phl-5pts); Carlos Delgado(nym-4pts); Jorge Cantu(fla-3pts); Adam Dunn(was-3pts); Casey Kotchman(atl-2pts) - Howard is the clear favorite; A somewhat offensive bounce-back from Kotchman is in place; Delgado, Cantu, and Dunn should all be solid again; Cantu is definitely still underrated with Bonifacio, Maybin sometimes, and Hanley Ramirez in front of him.

2b: Chase Utley(phl-5pts);Dan Uggla(fla-3pts);Kelly Johnson(atl-2pts); Luis Castillo(nym-1pt) – Castillo can be an effective 2b still at the 8-spot in the Mets lineup; Kelly Johnson can go 85-17-75-9-287 with maturity and confidence. Obviously, the Nationals have a 2^nd baseman in Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard – I just don’t think they’re worth writing about.

3b: David Wright(nym-5pts); Chipper Jones(atl-4pts); Ryan Zimmerman(was-3pts) Emilio Bonifacio (fla-3pts) – Chipper does deserve 5 points along with Wright if he could just stay healthy enough; If Bonifacio sticks to leadoff he can be a runs and sb stud; and Zimmerman should have a 85-20-85-5-285 line. His defense is fantastic and he has potential for 85-25-95-5-290. Pedro Feliz isn’t worth ranking albeit solid defense.

ss: Hanley Ramirez(fla-5pts); Jose Reyes(nym-4pts); Jimmy Rollins (phl-4pts); Yunel Escobar(atl-2pts) – I wanted to give 5 points to both Rollins and Reyes as well, but It’s true that Hanley is in an offensive class all by himself since he’ll have lots of rbi opportunities this year; I personally think Reyes can belt 19 home runs this year, but 16hr + 60sb is beautiful with a stellar .293-.297 avg.

lf: Raul Ibanez(tilde over the n)(phl-5pts); Daniel Murphy(nym-4pts); Matt Diaz(atl-3pts); Josh Willingham (was-2pts) – I love Daniel Murphy batting 2^nd in the Mets lineup. I think a very healthy 90-17-75-7-286 is very possible; Ibanez will be stellar there in the Phillies Lineup; Matt Diaz with playing time can be very good. Along with Brian McCann, he slimmed down a bit.

cf: Carlos Beltran(nym-5pts); Shane Victorino(phl-4pts); Cameron Maybin(fla-3pts); Lastings Milledge(was-2 pts); Jordan Schaeffer (atl-2pts) – Jordan Schaeffer is young and good. He’s already got 2 hr this year. He could switch with Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar for the top of the lineup if slow starts occur for either of the 2 or when Chipper sits (which will be enough) and Omar Infante is in the lineup. I think he can be good for 17hr-15sb. Maybin should bat 2^nd but may find himself at the bottom of the lineup enough to hurt. His lineup spot should have the following breakdown: 50% batting 8^th, 35% batting 2^nd; and 15% batting lead-off. A line of 85-15-65-25-269 seems great for where he went in drafts; Like I said prior, Beltran will lose out on runs and protection batting 5^th, but he should bat 4^th enough against lefties when Delgado bats 5^th.

rf: Jeff Francoeur(atl-5pts); Jayson Werth(phl-4pts); Jeremy Hermida(fla-2pts); Elijah Dukes-Austin Kearns(was-2pts); Church-Sheffield(nym-2pts) – Hermida was regarded very highly just a few years ago, and the rbi opportunities are there. He could get time batting 2^nd as well. I actually like him for a line of 75-18-75-6-260; Werth should be very good when healthy since right field is his. I see 24hr-15sb due to injury concern; Platoons and split-time between the Mets and Nationals right field situations should yield above average numbers. The difference between them and Francoeur however is obviously not nearly as great between say Chase Utley at 2b and Ronnie Belliard at 2b so I think they deserve 2 pts to Francoeur’s 5 pts.

sp1: Johan Santana(nym-5pts); Cole Hamels(phl-5pts); Derek Lowe(atl-4pts); Ricky Nolasco(fla-4pts)

sp2: Josh Johnson(fla-5pts); Javier Vazquez(atl-3pts); Brett Myers(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez (nym-3pts) – To me, Josh Johnson is clearly the best #2 starter here with the other 3 teams having fairly similar numbers at the #2 rotation spot. The thing with the Mets is I’m not sure who the #2 will be by year’s end – same for their number 3 and 4 starters, and I’m a Mets Fan; Brett Myers Could be good at times and a mess at others. I think he’s better than Moyer this year (even though Moyer may be ageless the way he pitches) so I’ll put him here and Moyer in the 3-whole.

sp3: Jair Jurjjens(atl-4pts); Jamie Moyer(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts); Volstad(fla-3pts)

sp4: Joe Blanton(phl-4pts); Kenshin Kawakami(atl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts) – I think Kawakami can be as effective as the teams’ other #4’s since no one has seen him.

sp5/Minor League P call-ups: Tommy Hanson(atl-4pts); Jordan Zimmerman(was-3pts); Carlos Carrasco(phl-3pts); Jon Niese(nym-1pts) – the Phillies, Nat’s, and especially the Braves have a future Ace or #2 in the whole, while the Mets, to me have a future #4. I think the Phillies will need Carrasco quicker than the Mets need Niese or Braves need Hanson, but Hanson is the best among the new wave of NL East Starters. Jordan Zimmerman could and should put up better than league average numbers in his first season.

P.S. Livan Hernandez will be horrendous for the Mets. Hopefully they sign Pedro Martinez or Jon Niese and Tim Redding can be effective enough. However, I do see a deadline SP deal for the Mets, which comes later in the post.

closer: Brad Lidge(phl-5pts); Krod(nym-5pts); Mike Gonzalez(atl-3pts); Matt Lindstrom(fla-2pts); Joel Hanrahan(was-2pts)-Krod and Lidge will be great again. Gonzalez is underrated and can save 35 games without Rafael Soriano getting a chance. Tommy Hanson could get some opportunities if both Gonzalez and Soriano are unhealthy, but I think they’ll keep him as a SP as he sores to the Majors. Lindstrom can be very good with his 100mph fast ball and slider so long as he stays healthy. Per pitch, he was the hardest thrower in the majors last year, and let’s not forget about Jon Broxton/LAD or Joel Zumaya/DET.

setup: JJ Putz(nym-5pts); Rafael Soriano(atl-2pts) – If Krod goes down, the Mets should still be OK because of JJ Putz - just OK. JC Romero of PHL could have been here if he didn’t get suspended for substance abuse, but hey thanks for helping the Phillies win the World Series and thanks for playing in the World Baseball Classic. Horrendousness.

Figure 1.0: Results

Point-Breakdown:

*Obviously, this is a very basic statistical way (almost a weight system) of ranking the NL East, but still feasible. Those not ranked, still received 1 pt for the contingent positions. The above system ranks each team as follows: Phillies (53pts) Mets (51pts) Braves (48pts) Marlins (38pts) and of course lastly, the Nationals (25pts). So here, the Phillies rank 1^st. However, there are definitely contingencies this year, such as how the Braves play against the Phillies. They were 4-14 against the Phillies last year. The Braves rotation with Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, and Hanson later on in the season, will be much much better, and their offense should pick up quite a bit as well. Most Importantly – The Mets. They had the 3^rd most blown saves last season with 29 (Both the Cardinals and Mariners had 31). The additions by subtractions and additions by great additions/call-ups (Krod, Putz, Sean Green, Brian Stokes, Bobby Parnell) should subtract at least 15 of those 29 blown saves – and probably many more!!! All three referenced NL East teams need to watch out for the Marlins, but I don’t think they have the bullpen and rotation depth to compete for 162 games in the 2^nd best division in the Major Leagues for 2009.

Mets Trade Rumors:

*Lastly, there will always be trade rumors throughout the season, and at the deadline. It may be more intense this year than last due to the economy, and some non-competing teams may be very willing to rid of their expensive talent. I think the Mets will be big players in a sundry of discussions – mainly with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and potentially the Padres. I think Erik Bedard (sp) along with Jose Lopez (2b), Roy Halladay (sp), as well as Jake Peavy(sp) would be fantastic additions after Johan Santana in the Mets Rotation. Another interesting difference this year, can be the Mets POTENTIAL willingness to trade Fernando Martinez, the Mets top OF prospect since they found a stud in Daniel Murphy. I think an offer like Fernando Martinez(of), Jon Niese(sp), and either a Reese Haven(ss) or Brad Holt(p) + Nick Evans (of) could potentially help us land a Roy Halladay or Erik Bedard. If we can land Jose Lopez for 2b along with Erik Bedard, I don’t see how the Mets wouldn’t easily win the NL East.

Mets Roster Additions:

*I think Sheffield was actually a good right-handed bat of the bench for the New York Mets, and

can be a great platoon with Ryan Church (left-handed). Livan Hernandez/sp just won’t be effective anymore, and the Mets should attempt to woo Pedro Martinez for 1 year at 2.5 million.

*2009 NL East Projections: (Honestly I think the Phillies and Braves are Interchangeable)

1- New York Mets (91-71)

2- Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) – WC

3- Atlanta Braves (87-75)

4- Florida Marlins (85-77)

5- Washington Nationals (63-99)

*Very Early 2009 MLB Playoffs Projections:

Mets vs. Dodgers

Phillies vs. Cubs

NL Championship: Mets vs. Cubs

WS Championship: Mets vs. Red Sox

WS Champions: Red Sox

AL Championship: Boston vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs. Angels

Yankees (WC) vs. Twins

Did You Know:

Did you know in college, Mike Lieberthal had a Homerun Cycle – He hit a grand slam, a 3-run homerun, a 2-run homerun, and a solo shot.  I read this on the back on his 1991 Topps Rookie Card! Amazing!!!

Did you know – The founder of this Site, Jeff Gross’, Favorite player was [LAD/TEX/ANA/TOT/CHC/SEA/SAN/FLA Pitcher] Ismael Valdez. Fantastic.

Also Fantasy-eers – Don’t forget Brandon Inge/c-3b on the Tigers is eligible at CATCHER! But make sure you have Pujol’s avg on the team, b/c Inge will hurt that badly!

RIP Nick Adenhart. Best wishes to the Angels (no corny joke), his friends, and most importantly, his family.