» Adrian Beltre

In my prior post (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/major-league-baseball/trade-david-wright-to-the-red-sox/), I referenced a potential trade from Joseph Delgrippo of Bleacher Report where David Wright and Fernando Martinez would go to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, and 2 of Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, or Justin Masterson. This is a lot, and I’d be surprised to see that much going the Mets way. The Mets obviously and blatantly need to be shaken up from the core-on-down – and then some. If this bullpen went with the team last year, maybe we’d have won the penant. Maybe we’d be 10 games up this year, but neither is the case, and although eventually the Mets will have John Maine, Oliver Perez, Billy Wagner, JJ Putz, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran coming off the DL at random, unknown times, and although my David Wright Passion Bucket has always been full, that trade scenario from Delgrippo of Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/213365-new-york-mets-need-to-make-a-trade-for-the-future) sounds very intriguing. To assure such a trade and a top-down shake-up why not send both Wright & Reyes to the Sawx?

So, here – naturally, are more crazy trade scenarios. Let’s play Mets GM:

1) David Wright/3b; Jose Reyes/ss; Oliver Perez/sp (& his salary) for Jacoby Ellsbury/of; Clay Buchholz/sp; Michael Bowden/sp; Daniel Bard/sp; and Lars Anderson/1b. The Mets could send a 3rd tier pitching prospect  (Scott Shaw/Mike Antonini/Scott Moviel) or young cf prospect their way in addition. This provides the Red Sox with their future ss & 3b and one dominant lineup.

2) After the Mets acquire 3 top-notch pitching prospects, their others (Jon Niese/Brad Holt/Jenrry Mejia) become a little more expendable. Jenrry Mejia is catching eyes finally. So the Mets could then trade Jon Niese/sp; Brad Holt/sp; Wilmer Flores/Robinson Tejada/or Reese Havens/ss for Roy Halladay. If not Flores/Tejada/Havens then Maybe Ryan Church/of + John Maine/sp, but it seems the Blue Jays will want a ss prospect along with sp prospects for Doc Halladay. The Mets could potentially offer Church + Maine in addition to the deal for Alex Rios/of, if the Jays would like not to pay his contract.

3) Finally, contingent on the above deal, the Mets could offer Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church/of or Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans/of-1b in addition to Mike Pelfrey or John Maine for Victor Martinez/c from the Cleveland Indians.

So for an easy view:

1-Wright, Reyes, Oliver & Salary for Ellsbury, Lars, Buchholz, Bowden, Bard

2-Niese, Holt, Tejada/Flores/Havens or Maine & Church for Halladay

3-F.Martinez & Church or Dan Murphy & Evans + Pelfrey or Maine for V.Martinez

There are some potential 2010 Free Agents the Mets could look at for their infield as rentals before the other 2 ss that don’t get traded (Tejada/Flores/Havens) and Jefry Marte/3b are ready for the infield (Adrian Beltre and Orlando Hudson included). So the 2010-2012 Mets Lineup could look as follows: Jacoby Ellsbury/cf-Robinson Tejada/2b-Victor Martinez/c-Carlos Beltran/rf-Lars Anderson/1b-Fernando Martinez or Daniel Murphy/lf-Jefry Marte/3b-Reese Havens/2b

Even better, the 2010-2012 Mets Rotation could look as follows: Roy Halladay-Johan Santana-Mike Pelfrey/John Maine-Clay Buchholz-Michael Bowden/Daniel Bard/Jenrry Mejia/Fernando Nieve(why not).

Not only is this team quite talented but very young – it does create a nice payroll with only 5 players with expensive contracts (Beltran,VMartinez,Santana,Halladay,Krod).

Guys like Halladay and Vmart can more than keep the team in contention right now with such a rotation, while the young Sawx pitching prospects can dominate with Santana and a resigned Halladay there-after.

Scold away.

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It is difficult to blog about the Seattle Mariners, because the team is like a bug stuck in amber. Sometimes, when you turn it in the light it is beautiful and fun to watch. At others, it is a bug, stuck in time. The 8-run comeback yesterday by the Angels, just when the Mariners were poised to sweep LA and drive the predicted leader of the AL West to .500, Seattle melted down.

Now, the M’s head into June playing .471 ball, 24 – 27, the two catalysts for change available to the club are the draft and the trade market. Both offer solid options, especially if Seattle and its fans don’t get distracted by the fact that Stephen Strasbourg will land with the Nationals—the Scott Boras client is not a lock for greatness, as Rick Ankiel, another pitcher that couldn’t lose, proved a decade ago, before Ankiel stopped pitching, had his shoulder rebuilt and learned to play outfield. Consider this statement about Strasbourg: “not since Mark Prior has there been this kind of buzz about an amateur pitcher.” I agree with John Hickey, Strasbourg going to the Nationals is not the M’s great loss.

In fact, I’d like to see Seattle focus on offense in the draft and deal with its pitching needs—three starters and middle relief, since the M’s have Chad Cordero tucked away—through trades. Dustin Ackley, a solid defensive center fielder from the University of North Carolina who hits well, has speed and a surgically repaired elbow, is anticipated to be the first hitter taken in the draft, and he’d be a good fit with the team in a couple years. Because the Mariners also have Carlos Truinfel, an outstanding shortstop prospect who recently had surgery, the team may also want to take a pass on USC’s Grant Green, a toolsy defender with a good batting eye who needs to develop a bit more power to justify the Evan Longoria comparisons I’ve read. 

Seattle should stay away from High School picks this time around, as it needs to see results sooner rather than later, and because the best prep offensive player, Donavan Tate out of Georgia, described here, along with other top prep prospects, will probably end up playing football and baseball in college. Let other teams waste picks on these guys, let these guys go to college. 

On the trade front, Adrian Beltre, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez, Wladimir Balentien, Russell Branyan, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Chris Jakubauskas and Garret Olson should all be considered trade material, for which Jack Zduriencik should consider pitching prospects. He’s shown a good eye in player development over the years, and the Branyan signing has turned into a solid decision that he can exploit, if needed, to bring young arms to Seattle.

But something has to change, because the current state of affairs is too predictably mediocre, largely because the team is still a strong reflection of the Bavasi years. More change will create more opportunities for improvement, for the team that has started to emerge on the field to shift its center to players with the greatest drive to win.

Adrian Beltre, who I suspect is injured, because he is not moving down the baseline with any speed this year, will ride the bench in Moday’s game versus the Angels and two-pitches-and-yer-ejected John Lackey. Beltre has also shown very poor timing on pitches. If anything, his batting eye is getting worse with each passing week.

Being benched did some good for Yuniesky Betancourt last week, who has raised his average by more than 10 points during the past 10 games, but Beltre doesn’t look like he needs encouragement, he looks like he just doesn’t have any presence at the plate. He’s sitting on a .211 average for the season, more than 50 points below last year’s full-season number, when he was playing hurt. The bottom line, though, is that it shouldn’t take a benching to get a major league player on track.

Yesterday’s walk-off win over the Red Sox showed Jason Vargas has some staying power, that Mark Lowe is potentially the closer of the future after all (with David Aardsma in the 8th), and that the bottom of the order can deliver a clutch win. All good signs. Right now, the M’s are being held back by slumping bats in the middle of the order.

Russell Branyan is the best free-agent signing, on a price/performance basis, of the winter. The M’s may have passed on Raul Ibañez, who is tearing up pitchers for the Phillies, but Branyan is delivering huge returns on his much lower salary.

It’s about time. Yuniesky Betancourt has been benched by Mariners Manager Don Wakamatsu. A couple Sundays back, when Yuni had two errors on two consecutive grounders hit to short, it became clear that the time had come to give up on any dreams of hidden greatness and move on.

Comparing Beltre and Betancourt

While Betancourt did demonstrate some improved plate discipline early this season, it hasn’t delivered great results. His .259 batting average hides how really bad he’s been. There’s no power and little tactical value in his 12 RBIs, four two-baggers and one home run.

The really frightening thing is that Adrian Beltre is batting worse that Betancourt. Beltre did add a home run during tonights ongoing game with Texas, but it’s time for some answers: Is Beltre playing hurt?

Does anyone think the Royals or Jays are going to win their divisions?  

Let’s not get too excited, even though last night’s 11-3 drubbing of the Angels, the mighty Angels, will make anyone think the 2009 Mariners are a powerhouse. At 7-2 going into Thursday’s game, the Mariners have the second-best record in the MLB, just behind the Florida Marlins. The difference between those two teams? People are talking about the Marlins being for real and the M’s are still a surprise. Let’s keep it that way, because the first ten games—one sixteenth of the season is behind us—don’t measure the end of any season. 

And the Mariners have always been good when people underestimated them. This is a team that is coming together, learning to play together and could be much better than expected as long as they don’t start taking anything for granted. Don Wakamatsu’s aggressive brand of small ball is fun to watch, whatever the results. These are some good results.

Kenji Johjima is headed to the DL with a hamstring injury. Jamie Burke, who handles the pitching staff very well, replaces him. Jeff Clement begins to look like trade bait, if he can get his numbers up. Burke has started two games to Clement’s five in Tacoma, yet here Jamie is, the “new Pat Borders,” as Mike Snow calls him. 

Sean White joins the team, as well, to shore up the bullpen now that Chris Jakubauskas is in the rotation. The Pullman native will fill in well, but won’t shake the world.

Matt Tuiasosopo goes back to Tacoma, where he will get some much-needed work. After his Spring, he deserves to be with the big club, but he needs to be playing daily. We’ll see him again, soon. 

What’s with Adrian Beltre? His tepid start (.206 average and a paltry .265 SLG with just seven hits in 24 at-bats) suggests he is not fully recovered from off-season surgery. He’s going to heat up soon or, I suspect we’ll begin to hear about his health, again. 

Jakubauskas is pitching sell in the first. He’s thrown 12 of 14 pitches for strikes. Jak strikes out Torii Hunter and Bobby Abreu, after giving up a bloop fly to Chone Figgins and getting Howie Kendrick to ground out. The rookie looks good.

The Mariners lineup tonight, as Jr. and Franklin Gutierrez get a night off:

Suzuki, RF
Chavez, CF
Sweeney, DH
Beltre, 3B
Lopez, 2B
Branyan, 1B
Balentien, LF
Johnson, C
Betancourt, SS

I’ll be at the game Friday. Look for new pictures soon.

Daniel Murphy looks to be a perfect two-hole hitter and a fantasy baseball stat provider. Thus far, in 2009 he’s batting .296 with a .345 obp, including a Home Run in his 3^rd at bat. In 2008, he hit .313, but, considerably more significant was his .397 obp. His offensive approach and surprising patience, will provide Jose Reyes a chance to run and David Wright a chance to drive in someone other than (and in addition to) Jose Reyes. I see Murphy providing the following fantasy line:

93runs-15homeruns-73rbis-6stolen bases-.283avg-.357obp.

I think Daniel Murphy is exactly what the Mets needed in so many different ways. Probably the only way, he’s not extremely needed, is that he hits left-handed, however, this guarantees him hitting 2^nd all year (without any slumps) because the Mets wouldn’t bat Delgado-Murphy-Church-Schneider back to back. I think Reyes(s) Murphy(l) Wright(r) Delgado(l) Beltran(r) Church(l)/Sheffield(r) Shneider(l)/Castro(r) Castillo(s)/Cora(l) is what they will go with all year. Maybe against phenomenal lefties, he could hit toward the bottom of the lineup, but I would say at least 85% of his at bats comes from the 2-hole.

I posted this factor in my first post of the season – NL East Projections/Previews, but I think one of the most important aspects surrounding Daniel Murphy, will be the Met’s ability to trade Fernando Martinez. Maybe they want to keep him for RF, which of course, they should (if he pans out), but I really think we should trade him in addition to one of our top SS prospects (Wilmer Flores/ Reese Havens) and one of our top P prospects (Jon Niese/Brad Holt/Eddie Kunz) for a top notch starter, such as Roy Halladay, Erik Bedard + Jose Lopez, or Jake Peavy. I think Fernando Martinez is expendable because of Murphy; Havens/Flores is expendable because of Reyes; and even our 3b prospect, Jeff Marte is expendable because of Wright. Why not trade these pieces for another starter and 2b while we’re at it:

If they deem Jeff Marte effective, this allows the Mariners to also trade Adrian Beltre(3b), and they then can have a successful fire sale. The Mets lineup and rotation would look as follows:

This trade would not only make the rotation and lineup look significantly better, but the Mets would have Johan Santana – Erik Bedard – Oliver Perez (Lefty-Lefty-Lefty) against the Phillies. I guess I’m subconsciously dwelling on the Phillies, but METS… PLEASE DON’T FORGET ABOUT THE BRAVES – AND MARLINS!!!!!