» Adam

The Baltimore Orioles. A good offensive fantasy baseball team. But that’s about it, unfortunately. They’re a Pitching Staff and a Bullpen away from a playoff spot – and 3 top MLB teams as well (Red Sox, Yankees, Rays -probably respectively). You have to absolutely love their lineup (i’ll include Matt Wieters of course over Gregg Zaun):

1-Brian Roberts/2b: According to ESPN Player Rater (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?) he’s the 3rd best 2b as of now. Probably more like the 5th or 6th best, but still top notch in r;sb;295+avg

2-Adam Jones/cf: ranked 10th overall by ESPN Player Rater. Enough said. HR/SB + R/RBI + 315+Avg?!

3-Nick Markakis/rf: top 45, but Avg should raise and make him top 25

4-Aubrey Huff/1b: i’ll take him and his rbi on the O’s for one more year

5-Melvin Mora/3b: should put up acceptable #5 hitter stats in this lineup

6-Matt Wieters/c: I’m sure you already heard the Evan Longoria at 3b comparisons

7-Luke Scott/dh: 3 hr and 7 rbi in his last 2 games back from shoulder injury

8-Nolan Reimold/lf: top 6 prospect for the O’s (3 hr the past 3 games; 5hr in 53 ab’s)

9-Cesar Izturis/ss: Bleh. Sorry.

Their rotation consists of (for the most part): Jeremy Guthrie; Koji Uehera; Rich Hill; and then a sundry of guys. Their pitching prospects (that rate from B to B-) are David Hernandez; Troy Patton; Chris Tilman; Brian Matusz; Jake Arrieta; Brandon Erbe; and Zach Britton.

So the question is, what should/can they do? Honestly the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays should be great for years to come with their payroll availability, players, and rotations (minus payroll for the Rays of course). This year (although only 6 games outs), they probably don’t have a chance. Not without a solid rotation or bullpen. They have the third worst ERA in all of baseball.

I think they have some pieces other teams should be interested in that are more than expendable: Felix Pie/of, Ty Wigginton/if, and Gregg Zaun/c. This first tier probably won’t yield many good players in return. The next tier consists of Aubrey Huff/1b, Jeremy Guthrie/sp and maybe Melvin Mora/3b. They have 7 pitching prospects that are generally rated b- or better.

Aubrey Huff + Jeremy Guthrie to maybe the Mets could work out. The Mets should be looking for a 1b/of replacement for Carlos Delgado and an additional SP that can be more consistent than Oliver Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, and Jon Niese. I think Huff + Guthrie can net the Orioles a group of Tim Redding (a MLB starter); Jon Niese(sp) or Brad Holt (sp); Reese Havens or Wilmer Flores (ss); Joe Kunz(rp); and Jefrey Marte(3b) or Ike Davis(1b). This deal provides them a young sp for Guthrie plus a needed relief arm along with someone who can at least pitch for them now (Redding). In addition, it provides the Orioles with a 3b and ss for when Mora and Izturis are done/not worth it. As a Mets fan, I think it’s a bit much, but I’m attempting to be realistic. I’d rather the Mets go for Nick Johnson/Nationals for cheap and keep Daniel Murphy in LF. Honestly, I just want the Mets to get another Ace and forget about everything else – especially if the Phillies end up landing another SP.

Unless the Orioles want to trade Wieters+ to Boston, since they would love the Catcher, for Clay Buchholz + Michael Bowden – if the Red Sox or Orioles would even do that, obviously, Wieters should be untouchable. A deal like this, however, may make them a contender this year or next. The Red Sox rotation is probably deep enough: Beckett; Lester; Dicek; Penny; Smoltz; Wakefield; Masterson to maintain pace. A rotation of Guthrie; Ueherea; Buchholz; Bowden; Hill + Prospects looks pretty good.

So in my fantasy land, if I was the Orioles GM, I would perform the following trades:

In about 2-3 years, the team could then potentially compete for the AL East or at least the Wild Card. Else, at least the Orioles should enjoy watching their only 4 current bright spots for years to come (Roberts; Jones; Markakis; Wieters) with hopeful pitching prospects.

Well Carlos Delgado will have surgery and be out until around the All-Star break. Possible replacements that may possibly arrise via trade are Aubrey Huff/Orioles; Nick Johnson/Nationals; Victor Martinez/Indians; and maybe even Jorge Cantu/Florida if any of these guys are or become available. I can see all these teams saying they need 2 of the Mets top  prospects, and I honeslty don’t think any of them except Victor Martinez warrant them, however, I would be willing to trade both if we can also land a SP in the deal ala Cliff Lee or Fausto Carmona (even though he hasn’t been great) from Cleveland; and Jeremy Guthrie (even though he hasn’t been great) from Baltimore. I doubt the Indians are willing to trade Victor Martinez and or Cliff Lee/Fausto Carmona so soon, but if so I would be willing to trade Fernando Martinez(of), Jon Niese(sp), Reese Havens or Wilmer Flores(ss) for BOTH Victor Martinez and Fausto Carmona or Aubrey Huff and Jeremy Guthrie, potentially. I think at catcher and 1b, Victor Martinez would be a dream fit, but Huff/Johnson would be less attractive becasue then what do we do when Delgado is back? I guess Huff could play LF again which moves Murphy to RF and then Church and Sheffield become unhappy or Murphy loses playing time which I would thoroughly disagree with. I guess Nick Johnson/Washington can come quite cheap since they also have Adam Dunn and a sundry of outfielders. I just strongly want to emphasize if we trade for a 1b then we should attempt to land a SP along with them if we rid of our top prospect(s). Agreed?

Some other random suggestions/potential candidates:

Russel Branyan/1b, Jose Lopez/2b, Erik Bedard/sp – Mariners… I think something could work here

Adrian Gonzalez/1b, Jake Peavy/sp – Padres… I wish something could work here

Jermaine Dye/of – White Sox (Move Murphy to 1b)…He’s solid but we really need a SP also

Matt Holliday/of – Athletics (Move Murphy to 1b)…May require way too much for thus far subpar performance

Helton/Atkins/1b – Rockies… Hmm, maybe Helton Could come cheap other than money cost?

All these guys are probably tradable minus Adrian Gonzalez, but they have a top notch 1b prospect.

Hopefully you read one of my last posts regarding Johan Santana as the NL MVP for 2009 (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/baseball-news/mets-rotation-johan-santanamvp-trade-needed/). Basically it gave Johan Santana’s stats up to that point and iterated the need for a starting pitcher via trade.

In Santana’s 1 loss, he had a line of 7 innings; 3 hits; 2 runs (BOTH UNEARNED); 1 walk; and 13 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he went up against Josh Johnson/FLA. Last night he went up against Chan Ho Park/PHL (horrendous). Nauseatingly, Park went 6 innings; 1 hit; 2 walks; 1 HBP; and 5 strikeouts. Santana 1-Up’ed him (not in hits) going 7 innings; 2 hits; 3 walks; and 10 strikeouts.

Johan Santana is now 4-1 with a .91 ERA and a .91 WHIP. He’s got 54 K’s in 39.2 IP. He’s 2nd in the NL in wins; 1st in strikeouts; 2nd in WHIP; and 1st in ERA.

Prior to last night’s game he was giving up 1.1 runs a game and was only getting 2.2 runs a game from his offense. Now he’s given up only .91 runs a game (not even a run a game!) and in last night’s win, he got less than half his 2.2 runs a game support. The Mets really need to start provding him with some runs. No matter how much I stress that statement, it will still be the understatement of the world.

Johan Santana is still undefeated against the Phillies, the Mets new and beyond obvious, nemesis. He is now 3-0 lifetime against the Phillies in 7 career starts with a 2.44 ERA – phenomenal.

Johan Santana now has 31% of the Mets wins on the season. With complete concerns and inconsistency from Mike Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine (pitched solid other than bb’s in his past 2 starts), Johan Santana is infinitely important. I understand that the CY Young is the award to receive for a pitcher, and it epitomizes how great of a season a starter had, however, the MVP is how fantastic a player is and helps his team. There’s no doubt in my mind that Johan Santana at this point is the NL MVP and should be by season’s end. Of course the obvious competition is Albert Pujols/1b-STL. He is absolutely amazing: .364avg-28r-11hr-31rbi-4sb-.467obp-.747slg-1.215ops. According to ESPN, he’s on pace for 167r-66hr-185rbi-24sb. These stats are sensational. He’s the best hitter in the MLB. And if those stolen bases keep up he’ll be by far the best fantasy player (even with out them he will be). If you’re willing to trade him for needed roster slots, you better get a top notch player at each position you need: I’m talking Youkilis/1b; Hamels/sp; McCann/c. And then you can provide an extraneous SP & C back (just a wee-bit of fantasy talk).

Honestly, it’s up in the air, and Albert Pujols (#1 overall on ESPN Player Rater) is so utterly valuabe to the Cardinals. They have other hitters performing right now though – Ryan Ludwick/of; Chris Duncan/of; and Yadier Molina/c. They also have 3 starting pitchers performing well: Joel Pineiro; Kyle Lohse; and of course Mets’ horror Adam Wainwright. I’ve explained before in my last post. The Mets have solid offense: Reyes-Murphy-Beltran-Delgado-Wright, but they only have one great starter: Johan Santana (#5 overall on ESPN Player Rater) – http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?