River City

We’ve got trouble

Right here in River City

With a capital T

And that rhymes with B

And that stands for Burnett

(With apologies to Meredith Wilson)

The Yankees have trouble.  Potentially big trouble.  As we approach the playoffs, the starting pitching is in disarray.

Starting pitching?  The strength of the staff?  Yup.  Sad to say, but the Yankees look weak in that key area going into the playoffs.

The Yankee rotation in the playoffs is supposed to be Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, and Joba.  This group looks strong on paper, but upon closer examination, they are not what they seem.

CC is the clear number one, and he has been great.  He is one of three pitchers who could win the Cy Young Award for 2009, the other two being Greinke and Verlander.  Unfortunately, the Yankees will likely face the Tigers in the first round, and CC will have to outpitch Verlander.  Should he fail to prevail in game one, the Yankees could be in big trouble.

The primary concern is Burnett.  AJ Pavano, as I am fond of calling him, has had some great moments this year, but he is 3-5 with an ERA of 5.11 since the All-Star break.  True, he has had some no-decisions, most notably the 15 inning masterpiece against Beckett that stands as the pivotal game of the season.  And he has beaten the Rays twice.  But the rest of the time, he has been decidedly lousy.

If Burnett doesn’t straighten himself out, it will fall to Pettitte to take up the slack.  Now I love Andy.  He is a true warrior, an all-time great Yankee, and he has been brilliant for much of this season, but he is no longer the solid number two of the 1996-2001 glory years.  To expect Andy to function in that role in 2009 is asking a lot.

Finally, there is the Joba disaster.  Obsessed with the spector of Mark Prior, Joe Girardi and the Yankee hierarchy have reduced Joba to a 3 inning pitcher.  Which means he is fundamentally useless as a starter.  If the Yankees need a game four starting pitcher, they are looking at a committee, and a committee will cripple the bullpen.  Aceves and Gaudin will have to be held out of the other games so they are available for extended innings in game four.  Their absence will strain the pen in the other games if the starters cannot provide longevity.  How the team with the best record in baseball can go into the playoffs without an established fourth starter is mind-boggling.

I am not suggesting that the Yankees cannot beat the Tigers.  The Tiger bullpen is weak, Edwin Jackson has not had a great second half, and the Yankees are much better hitters.  But after Detroit, they will face either the Red Sox or the Angels.  I don’t know if any of you have noticed, but Clay Bucholtz has been terrific since his recall, and DiceK gets his first start since June this week.  Add in Lester and Wakefield and you have a formidable staff, even if Josh Beckett continues to stink.  If Beckett rediscovers his magic, the Yankees will be hard pressed to prevail.  Remember, as good as the Yankee bullpen has been of late, overall the Red Sox bullpen is better (although Papelbon still can’t hold Mo’s jock).

And if the Red Sox fall in the first round, the Yankees will confront their ultimate nightmare – the Angels.  The Angels have a deep starting staff that has added Scott Kazmir.  They have a great bullpen and arguably the best manager in baseball (while the Yankees have one of the worst).  But most of all, historically the Angels are the one team the Yankees can’t beat.  The Angels starters spent the first two months of the seaon on the DL.  Since Lackey and Santana returned, the Angels have matched the Yankees win for win.  And the last time they met, the Angels swept.

AJ Pavano better get it in gear.

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