Next 10 Days Likely To Determine Early Balance Of Power In AL East

While it is only May and there is still a lot of baseball to be played, almost every year an early balance of power tends to emerge in each division which establishes (1) who the real contenders are, (2) who the big stick is, and (3) which teams are likely to remain down-and-out for most of the season.  Obviously, the early balance of power does not set in stone how the division will look at the end of the season.  At the same time, it is an early indicator regarding who this year’s dominant teams will be.  (For instance, in 2005, the two best teams in the American League before the All-Star break were the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox; the Orioles collapsed thereafter and finished next to last; the White Sox went on to win the World Series.) 

The balance of power in the AL East is still very much in question, though it is likely to be settled in the next 10 days.  So far, the surprise Toronto Blue Jays have played well and held their lead over the Red Sox.  But a review of the Blue Jays’ schedule shows that they’ve been dominating the AL West and AL Central, and that they haven’t played anyone in the AL East yet save the current worst team, Baltimore, who they swept.  The question is, are they for real?

The same question applies for the Yankees.  While there have been expectations, injuries, and disappointments, in the blunt words of the great football coach Bill Parcells: “You are what you are.”  After the losses to Tampa Bay last week, right now the Yankees are effectively 4^th in a division of 5 teams, ahead of only Baltimore.  Technically, the Yanks are 1 game ahead of Tampa Bay, too.  But Tampa Bay this week has 2 games against Baltimore, and 4 against Cleveland – both of whom are last place teams.  Expect Tampa Bay to pick up some ground and be over .500 by this time next week.  So the bottom line for the Yanks is, while they have the talent to be the best team, the competition in the AL East may be so fierce this year that the Yanks may not rise above 3^rd place in the division unless they seriously improve their game. 

Meanwhile, Boston has played well, is probably the best team right now, and is poised to take over 1^st place in the AL East, if it turns out that Toronto isn’t for real. 

Tonite the Blue Jays begin a critical 3-game series with the Yankees, then next Monday play three against the Red Sox in Fenway.  By winning one or both series, the Blue Jays can solidify themselves as a serious contender in the early balance of power.  (And if they do, the AL East will be a scary division to play in this summer.)  At the same time, if Toronto falls flat, Boston can surpass them and establish themselves as the team to beat in the AL East.  While these teams will all meet again in June, after next week inter-league play begins, and the balance of power may not shift again until after the All-Star break. 

The Yankees, needless to say, have an opportunity to show that they are a serious contender by beating Toronto.  With the Yanks’ three veteran pitchers starting during the series – Burnett, Pettite, and Sabathia – the time to reestablish themselves is now. 

Whatever happens, with Burnett pitching against Roy Halladay tonite, it should be an awesome matchup to kickoff a pivotal 10-day period. 

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