M’s 09 Key: Run Production

I noted in passing in Monday’s live-blog of the Opening Day game that as long as the M’s generate more than five runs a game, they will win 12 to 15 more games this season. Today’s 8-5 victory over Oakland demonstrates the rule that an increase in run-production is going to win more games, as the Mariners gained five runs in the eight and ninth innings to recover after falling behind 3-to-5 after the first five innings. Five runs. That’s the daily minimum to reach 80 wins.

With the win, the M’s take the first series of the year and set the stage for a potential sweep with Erik Bedard starting against rookie Tim Cahill on Sunday. Brandon Morrow’s shaky but effective outing today was reassuring, however it will be a month or more before this bullpen approaches a “solid” rating. I’m still expecting to see Chad Cordero, the former Nationals closer whom Seattle signed to a minor-league deal during Spring Training, in a Mariners uniform by June 15. David Aardsma and Chris Jakubauskas, who got his first win in relief Friday, are looking very solid.

Jakubauskas is still the favorite, in my opinion, to take the first starter role that opens; Carlos Silva has two more starts to show the new management he should be starting.

Ichiro is back Wednesday, the day after Seattle’s home opener, where he will appear but not play. His rehab is simply picking up where he left off in the WBC and Spring Training—expect full performance from Day One. Matt Tuiasosopo, alas, will head to Tacoma to make room for Ichiro. Look for Tui to get at least one at-bat or start at third base on Sunday, as Manager Don Wakamatsu has said everybody on the roster will play in the first week.

Unfortunately, Carlos Truinfel, Seattle’s hot AA shortstop prospect broke is fibula (the smaller of the two bones in the lower leg) sliding into second base in Friday’s game, the second of the Jaxx’s season. It will probably mean he doesn’t make the jump from AA Jacksonville to the Mariners this season, though we could still see him when rosters expand in September. Truinfel had a great Spring and was the hottest bat in the Arizona Fall League last year at just 18. He turned 19 February 27th.

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