Mariners outlast A’s

The 15-inning rubber game of the Mariners-Athletics series this weekend marked an important turning point for The Team No One Believed In. Coming back during the first nine innings to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, falling behind by three runs in the 13th but recovering to win on a Jose Lopez single, the Mariners demonstrated that they have the drive to win, regardless of the circumstances. After 33 innings of baseball this weekend, the team still poured onto the field to congratulate Lopez, who also won Friday’s game with a single in the bottom of the ninth. 

A real team has appeared in Seattle this season.

The Wak Ball of the early games has given way to a more traditional hit-and-run game in the last week, but the M’s are still finding ways to grind out wins. Jason Vargas, who won today’s game after two-and-a-third innings of relief, made his 2009 debut, following the long-absent Denny Stark, whose last pitch in the majors was five years ago. Mike Sweeney also contributed his first home run of the season, as did catcher Kenji Johjima, fresh off the disabled list as of Friday. Franklin Gutierrez and Yunieksy Betancourt have both built their averages up to be consistent bottom-of-the-order contributors. The offense of the team is firing on all cylinders in clutch situations. 

The five-run rule, laid out here, has held up and is essential to the Mariners continuing their winning ways. The team has won all but one of the games in which they scored more than five runs and held the opponent to less than five, 10 games in all (almost exactly the 85% of wins in this situation I predicted, though it was little more than a lucky estimate). The M’s have lost 10 games in which they scored less than five runs. The difference, which accounts for the team’s surprising and pleasing 15-10 record, is the five games in which the the M’s pulled a win out in low-scoring games, when both teams scored fewer than five runs. 

Good pitching has made the real difference. Hernandez, Bedard and Washburn have pitched well. Jakubauskus pitched well today, and he was great in his two-hit loss to the White Sox last Tuesday. 

But there are still some weaknesses. Carlos Silva was horrible again on Friday night. I believe Chris Jakubauskas, today’s starter, would be pitching for wins instead of finding his footing if he’d taken Silva’s place on the roster at the beginning of the season. The good news is that GM Jack Zduriencik has given Silva an ultimatum about his performance, the bad news is that there isn’t a clearly prepared replacement candidate at Tacoma. After Vargas’ promotion, Garrett Olson is the closest to a major-league starter. 

It’s time for Zduriencik to package one of the many catchers he has–Jeff Clement has played better since being sent back to Tacoma–with a pitching prospect in the lower minors to get another quality starter, a number four or five guy to lock down at least 11 more wins this season, which Silva won’t deliver.

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