Giants Spring Training Team Stats in Regular Season Context

I’m really not a big believer in Spring Training stats, but I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at where the Giants’ Spring team stats are right now in certain offensive and defensive categories, and to project whether these stats will translate into similar in the regular season:

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team Batting Avg:  .287 (#8 in the Majors)- With the departure of Omar Vizquel, Dave Roberts and Ray Durham (all low average hitters), there is no question that the Giants’ team batting average will be higher in ‘09.  But when you look at the pitching in the NL West and the overall mediocrity of the Giants offensive lineup from top to bottom, it’s highly unlikely they’ll finish in the top 10 in the regular season.  Sign of regular season stats?:  NO

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team HR:  23 (#1 in the Majors)- If this doesn’t indicate what a fluke Spring Training stats are, I don’t know what does.  The Giants are likely to finish dead last in the Majors this season in HRs.  I don’t know what’s in the water down there in Arizona, but they should bottle some of it up and bring it home for the regular season.  Unlikely the Giants will finish higher than the bottom five in the Majors in HRs this season, and impossible that they will even be sniffing the top 5.  Sign of regular season stats?:  NO

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team BB:  36 (#25 in the Majors)- Considering hackers Bengie and Pablo and the young guys like Burris, Frandsen and Ishikawa … it seems very reasonable to surmise that the Giants will be near the bottom in team walks during the regular season.  This isn’t a very patient group at the plate.  Sign of regular season stats?:  YES

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team ERA:  6.46 (#28 in the Majors)- Giants starters should easily finish in the top 5 in ERA this season, but the question is how far down will this weak bullpen drag the team ERA.  This Spring, Giants relievers are among the hardest hit pitchers in the bigs.  Ramon Ortiz (nice pickup, Sabean) has given up 11 runs in 4.2 innings of work.  Pat Misch has given up eight runs in three innings of work.  Billy Sadler has given up eight runs in 4.1 innings of work.  Keiichi Yabu has given up seven runs in 2.2 innings of work (and I believe was recently demoted).  Affeldt (Sabean’s big bullpen pickup in the offseason) has surrendered six runs and 11 hits in six innings of work.  You get the idea … the starting rotation could be great, but the bullpen is a disaster in progress.  But even when you throw Zito as the fourth starter into the mix, I still think the Giants team ERA will land somewhere in the top 10 by regular season’s end.  Sign of regular season stats?:  NO

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team Pitching Strikeouts:  94 (#5 in the Majors)- Between Lincecum, Johnson and Cain – this starting rotation is going to rack up a ton of strikeouts this year.  Especially in the soft- hitting NL West.  Sign of regular season stats?:  YES

Spring Training ‘09 Giants Team Pitching Walks Allowed:  57 (#2 in the Majors)- The Giants walked more batters than any team other than the Pirates or Orioles in ‘08.  When you look at the top six teams for last season (for walks allowed), they all share one thing in common – none of them made the playoffs.  It’s concerning that cutting down on walks apparently hasn’t been enough of a focus for the Giants this Spring.  Unfortunately,  the Giants have regularly been around the top five in team walks for the last few seasons, so no real logical reasons to anticipate any different this season. Sign of regular season stats?:  YES

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