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Well Omar Minaya supposedly rejected 2 major trades (potentially losing Jenrry Mejia & Brad Holt for Victor Martinez/c fom the Indians and Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, Jon Niese, & Bobby Parnell for Roy Halladay/sp from the Blue Jays). Obviously/Naturally/Inevitably neither was ever 100% confirmed. Mets Blog author Matt Cerrone thought the Indians potentially wanted Jon Niese and one of Brad Holt or Jenrry Mejia as well as a minor league bat (”…from what i can gather, the Indians would have requested Jon Niese and one of Brad Holt or Jennry Mejia from the Mets, in a deal for martinez, plus maybe a minor-league hitter, but i don’t believe an official offer was ever on the table…” – http://www.metsblog.com/page/3/), and as per Jon Heyman (http://www.fannation.com/si_blogs/mlb_trade_talk/posts/70781-jays-asking-price-for-halladay-too-steep-for-mets), the Mets supposedly rejected the Halladay offer.

Honestly either deal would have significantly depleted our system. Personally, I would have pulled the Halladay deal to have two gorgeous anchors for the 2010 Mets rotation, and they wouldn’t have had to give up their top 2 sp prospects in Holt and Mejia.

I do have another proposal for Halladay contingent on whether the above offer was true:

Jon Niese; Bobby Parnell; Fernando Martinez; Ruben Tejada, Ike Davis (preferably not adding Davis if possible) for Roy Halladay/sp and Alex Rios/of (consuming their salaries).

This would then allow the Mets to trade Alex Rios or Carlos Beltran + Daniel Murphy or Ike Davis if not traded above + Brad Holt for Matt Cain/sp and Pablo Sandoval/ci from the Giants. Matt Cain has been unhittable and probably will be harder to attain then ever before, but I think such a deal could work for the Giants with their offensive needs.

This provides the Mets with a 2010 rotation of Halladay;Santana;Cain;Pelfrey;Maine/Perez and a 2010 lineup of Castillo/Reyes/Wright/Sandoval/Rios/Francoeur/Pagan or FA LF/Schneider-Santos/c. Again, preferably I’d love for the Mets to sign Orlando Hudson for 2b and keep Castillo on the bench or trade him as much as his salary and 2009 performance is, but I think at this point, that won’t happen considering his performance and salary.

I read the Mets Rejection of a Roy Halladay trade first via MetsBlog.com: According to Matthew Cerrone, ‘Jon Heyman of SI.com believes the Mets rejected a deal from the Jays for RHP Roy Halladay, in return for OF Fernando Martinez, Bobby Parnell, Jon Niese and 17–year-old SS Ruben Tejada.’

Honestly, that’s a lot. Then, a poll asked if you would do this trade or not and at the time I voted (no), 75% of the people said yes they would do it and only 25% said no (on the dot). I’m surprised. This is a lot to give up. I think most of the same people said not to give up the farm in any trade in an earlier poll on the site. And like Cerrone goes on to say, the Mets would keep Brad Holt and Jenrry Mejia, which are probably the Mets top two pitching prospects now so that is attractive, but again, I personally think this is way too much.

Ruben Tejada may be ahead of Wilmer Flores as our top middle infield/ss prospect, however that said, we do have another very young, very talented ss prospect in Flores. We do have 2 better sp prospects than Jon Niese. I think this was the Blue Jays thinking too. The Mets are giving up their top OF prospect in Fernando Martinez and top RP prospect in Bobby Parnell, but not even their top sp or ss prospect, however, with both Billy Wagner and JJ Putz gone via free agency next year (obviously assuming the inevitable), I think Bobby Parnell is too important – maybe the most important immediate provider in the deal.

So should Omar Minaya be fired (I mean counter)? I think we can attempt to counter with Fernando Martinez/of, Jon Niese/sp, Brad Holt/sp and Jefry Marte/3b for Roy Halladay/sp + Alex Rios/of. I think Marte is more expendable at 3b behind David Wright than Ruben Tejada or Wilmer Flores at ss behind Jose Reyes. And if we lose Fernando Martinez we’d need Rios plus we would take his salary off the Jays’ back.

*In my crazy idealland, I thought maybe Jon Niese, Brad Holt, John Maine, and Jefry Marte/Ruben Tejada/Wilmer Flores could land Halladay & Rios, and the Mets can then trade Fernando Martinez & Mike Pelfrey/Brad Holt/Jenrry Mejia & Santos/Thole/Pena/c for Victor Martinez yielding:

a 2010 rotation of: Roy Halladay; Johan Santana; Oliver Perez; 2 of Pelfrey/Holt/Mejia/League-worse-than-averages like Livan/Redding/&Nieve this year.

and a 2010 lineup of: Jose Reyes/ss; David Wright/3b; Victor Martinez/c; Carlos Beltran/cf; Alex Rios/lf; Jeff Francoeur/rf; Daniel Murphy/1b; Castillo/Cora/Flores/Tejada/Havens/2b.

and then in lala land, I thought maybe (a healthy) Jose Reyes/ss (maybe in the off season) can go to the Red Sox for Michael Bowden/sp and (Clay Buchholz/sp or Justin Masterson/sp & Daniel Bard/rp). If they want Oliver Perez/sp and 1/2 his salary, that would be fantastic. The Mets could than use Tejada/Flores/Havens/Cora at SS and sign Orlando Hudson for 2b allowing a 2010 lineup of: Hudson-Wright-VMartinez-Beltran-Rios-Francoeur-Murphy-Tejada/Flores/Havens/Cora and a 2010 Rotation of Halladay-Santana-Buchholz-Bowden-Nieve/Mejia/Holt/Pelfrey. And fire-bucket!

In my prior post (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/major-league-baseball/trade-david-wright-to-the-red-sox/), I referenced a potential trade from Joseph Delgrippo of Bleacher Report where David Wright and Fernando Martinez would go to the Red Sox for Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Lars Anderson, and 2 of Michael Bowden, Daniel Bard, or Justin Masterson. This is a lot, and I’d be surprised to see that much going the Mets way. The Mets obviously and blatantly need to be shaken up from the core-on-down – and then some. If this bullpen went with the team last year, maybe we’d have won the penant. Maybe we’d be 10 games up this year, but neither is the case, and although eventually the Mets will have John Maine, Oliver Perez, Billy Wagner, JJ Putz, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran coming off the DL at random, unknown times, and although my David Wright Passion Bucket has always been full, that trade scenario from Delgrippo of Bleacher Report (http://bleacherreport.com/articles/213365-new-york-mets-need-to-make-a-trade-for-the-future) sounds very intriguing. To assure such a trade and a top-down shake-up why not send both Wright & Reyes to the Sawx?

So, here – naturally, are more crazy trade scenarios. Let’s play Mets GM:

1) David Wright/3b; Jose Reyes/ss; Oliver Perez/sp (& his salary) for Jacoby Ellsbury/of; Clay Buchholz/sp; Michael Bowden/sp; Daniel Bard/sp; and Lars Anderson/1b. The Mets could send a 3rd tier pitching prospect  (Scott Shaw/Mike Antonini/Scott Moviel) or young cf prospect their way in addition. This provides the Red Sox with their future ss & 3b and one dominant lineup.

2) After the Mets acquire 3 top-notch pitching prospects, their others (Jon Niese/Brad Holt/Jenrry Mejia) become a little more expendable. Jenrry Mejia is catching eyes finally. So the Mets could then trade Jon Niese/sp; Brad Holt/sp; Wilmer Flores/Robinson Tejada/or Reese Havens/ss for Roy Halladay. If not Flores/Tejada/Havens then Maybe Ryan Church/of + John Maine/sp, but it seems the Blue Jays will want a ss prospect along with sp prospects for Doc Halladay. The Mets could potentially offer Church + Maine in addition to the deal for Alex Rios/of, if the Jays would like not to pay his contract.

3) Finally, contingent on the above deal, the Mets could offer Fernando Martinez and Ryan Church/of or Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans/of-1b in addition to Mike Pelfrey or John Maine for Victor Martinez/c from the Cleveland Indians.

So for an easy view:

1-Wright, Reyes, Oliver & Salary for Ellsbury, Lars, Buchholz, Bowden, Bard

2-Niese, Holt, Tejada/Flores/Havens or Maine & Church for Halladay

3-F.Martinez & Church or Dan Murphy & Evans + Pelfrey or Maine for V.Martinez

There are some potential 2010 Free Agents the Mets could look at for their infield as rentals before the other 2 ss that don’t get traded (Tejada/Flores/Havens) and Jefry Marte/3b are ready for the infield (Adrian Beltre and Orlando Hudson included). So the 2010-2012 Mets Lineup could look as follows: Jacoby Ellsbury/cf-Robinson Tejada/2b-Victor Martinez/c-Carlos Beltran/rf-Lars Anderson/1b-Fernando Martinez or Daniel Murphy/lf-Jefry Marte/3b-Reese Havens/2b

Even better, the 2010-2012 Mets Rotation could look as follows: Roy Halladay-Johan Santana-Mike Pelfrey/John Maine-Clay Buchholz-Michael Bowden/Daniel Bard/Jenrry Mejia/Fernando Nieve(why not).

Not only is this team quite talented but very young – it does create a nice payroll with only 5 players with expensive contracts (Beltran,VMartinez,Santana,Halladay,Krod).

Guys like Halladay and Vmart can more than keep the team in contention right now with such a rotation, while the young Sawx pitching prospects can dominate with Santana and a resigned Halladay there-after.

Scold away.

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.