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I had a friend text me again. He asked what I thought about the following trade:

He would give up Alex Rodriguez/3b; Kyle Lohse/sp; Stephen Drew/ss and receive Ian Kinsler/2b; Joba Chamberlain/sp>rp; and Mark Derosa/if.

I told him there were a few contingencies:

1) Is it a keeper league? If so, go for it because I’d definitely keep Kinsler + Joba over Arod + Drew. Kinsler’s younger and cheaper than Arod (even in fantasy depending on how your keeper league might work).

2) Is his middle infielders killing him?

3) Does he have a solid 3b/corner infield to back up for A-rod’s absence (hoping Derosa isn’t it)

4) Finally, I told him to attempt to wait it out and see if Joba will become a reliever since the Yankees have Wang back and the young Philip Hughes. My opinion is that he will becuase he was much more dominant there and Wang’s stuff is meant to start and Hughes is a stud.

Therefore, I told him the only player straight up I’d trade A-rod for is Pujols and maybe Hanley. Unless he believes Joba will remain a starter and so long as it’s not a keeper league, I suggested him not to do it. 1+ Months out of baseball, and A-rod is still on pace for 45+ homers.

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

Every season including this, you could hop in to a league at this point and put together a decent fantasy team with free agents. Even guys on ESPN’s top dropped list (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/addeddropped) I enjoy: John Maine(sp), Ramon Hernandez(c), Jeff Francoeur(of), Justin Upton(of), Chien-Ming Wang(sp), Jarrod Saltalamacchia(c), Cameron Maybin(of), and even Khalil Greene at ss. Hopefully you read my last post: Fantasy Baseball: Free Agent Strategy (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/author/dschwartz/). You could see who you could have picked up last year and potential break outs for this year that were drafted late or not at all. Below is a team put together by only 22/25 of ESPN’s most added list, meaning some leagues didn’t have these guys rostered at all until recently:

I was planning to look at ESPN’s top drop/add list, and I saw that Roto Authority – Fantasy Baseball (www.rotoauthority.com) attended to it as well (Fantastic Fantasy Baseball site by the way). So I’ll only talk about one player that even after his April 16th start, I’m somewhat surprised to see on ESPN’s most dropped list so fast: John Maine. I’ll talk about him since I’ll be attending mainly to the Mets with Major League Blogging Creator, Jeff Gross, as well as the NL East and Fantasy Baseball in general.

I don’t really see how John Maine was previously, the 9^th most dropped player. Again considering he was drafted late as a 5^th/6^th starter on your team, in his first start he only gave up 2 hits and 1 walk with 5 k’s in 5 innings. Now I’m not saying he will stud it up, but he’ll have 140-160k’s in 160-180innings or so and his ERA should be in the 3.85-4.25 range. For a 6^th starter where you drafted him (or now can pick him up off waivers), I don’t see how he should be so high on ESPN’s top dropped list. I think with some run support, his K’s, and Wins should all be usable on your fantasy team (and his WHIP and ERA won’t really hurt you). I think the Mets will really depend on him with the inconsistency of Oliver Perez and health/youth issues of Mike Pelfrey – and oh yeah, the big question that is Livan Hernandez.

In 2008, John Maine had a line of 10w-4.18era-1.35whip-122k in only 140 innings. He had just as many strike outs as hits allowed by the way. Just to throw it out there I guess, Ricky Nolasco last year had 186k, but gave up 192hits in 212 innings. In 2007, John Maine had 15wins-3.91era-1.27whip-180k in 191 innings, and he only gave up 168 hits. So to reiterate, I really don’t see why John Maine should be dropped so much. Also the new stadium looks as though it could help if Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church don’t add to their bloopers, because he does give up quite a few HR’s (Game 1: 2 hits = 2 homerun). A matter of fact, now that I think of it, when I watch John Maine, he looks to me as the Jack Cust of Pitching. He gives up a homerun, a walk, or strikes a batter out.

John Maine (2009): With about 180 Innings, I see a line of 12wins-4.05era-1.32whip-155k.

“Bloop”

I’m starting to lose track of how often that word is thrown around by those few fortunate commentators of the Rangers opposition who undoubtedly bear a mile-wide grin upon the utterance of the word. Naturally, this is followed by the excited roar of an away crowd or the all-too-often heard cry in disbelief from the home cats.

Today the Rangers were looking to avoid falling victim of a sweep to the Tigers, “looking” being the key word. What they found was another well executed exercise in what are blatantly their two most glaring weaknesses: pitching, and defense.

Kevin Milwood started for the Rangers, he faced Edwin Jackson. I’m not going to lie; I don’t really know anything about Jackson so I won’t go into too much depth on him. Comerica Park would see a classic Milwood performance on the mound; all said and done he would throw 112 pitches, 70 of which were strikes. Seven innings of shutout baseball, in addition to a productive early offense primarily provided by Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Elvis Andrus, and Josh Hamilton; each scoring a run in the first three innings. Both Hamilton and Kinsler would knock two-run homers over the fence.

Apart from the chilly 49 degree weather, not much seemed to be able to faze the Rangers, who played pretty well most of the game (at least the part of the game with Milwood in it). Of course, inevitably a single pitcher can’t carry a whole game on his back, so it was time for some relief on the Ranger mound. That relief came in the form of CJ Wilson who in just 24 pitches allowed 6 runs. Yeah, you heard me right: six runs in twenty-four pitches. I know; I couldn’t believe it either! If it weren’t for an easily avoidable error by the rookie Andrus the blow might have been softened, but then speculation never really ends in anything productive. The fact is; the guy on the mound just didn’t perform. Warner Madrigal was called in to try to get the Rangers out of the inning, which he did successfully in twelve pitches, but the damage had been done.

The Rangers would see their last three at bats, but they couldn’t seem to break through the embarrassment they rightly bore on their shoulders. It seemed they had given up.

It’s going to be a long trip back to Arlington, but there’s no rest for the mediocre. Tomorrow is another day, another game, another opponent: the Orioles of Baltimore.

It’s been a few years since I’ve been able to really enjoy a full season of baseball. Joining the military kept me out of the loop in a lot of aspects of life for probably about the first year. Then I got about half a season in before I was sent to England – a country where baseball is almost unheard of. Football on the other hand is all that is spoken of here, and not the pig skin kind that most of this crowd will find at the front lines of their thought. Opening day this April was broadcast on our military satellite service, so I was happily reintroduced to my love for the game, the atmosphere, and how much I missed home.

Coming back into the game now, I see a lot of new names, and faces – a lot of the players I had come to know from teams have been traded, retired, or apparently are free agents now. I’ve been a long time Cubs fan, but had the pleasure of watching a Rangers game last year, and quite enjoyed it. Add to that the probability of me going to college in Texas in a couple years, I figured I’d start to learn the team. I’m not new to disappointment, certainly, as I’ve grown accustomed to a history of failed Cubbie seasons.

It’s no secret that the Rangers aren’t among the best teams in baseball having only made a few playoff appearances in a little over a decade, and never really making it very far when they did. I’ve listened to the first five games they’ve played this season; and found a good amount of excitement in three of them, with an equal amount of disappointment in three of them (not totaling six, just found issue in one of their wins). Their first two games against the Indians went surprisingly well. The third game was a little tense, that’s about when the Rangers’ pitching problem(s) started to rear its ugly head. Scott Feldman came in relief to give up four runs in just two innings. Luckily the Texas offense was able to counter the inefficiency of their pitching counterparts, shooting them to a 12-8 victory over the tribe.

Then it was off to Detroit – a team that had lost two games out of a series of four against the Blue Jays. The Rangers’ performance in their first against the Tigers was abysmal, to put it nicely. This was Kris Benson’s first start of the regular season and if there were any question to him making starting rotation on a regular basis, surely that question is bordering the answer of “no”. Benson gave up eight runs in five innings.

Game two at Detroit was a little more positive – it wasn’t a blowout loss, but surely one the Rangers could have, and should have pulled off – if they could add just a little tweaking to their defense, and obviously their pitching. It was a 4-3 final for the Tigers.

So now the Rangers sit on a no-more-than-average 3-2 record. While it is still extremely early in the season, it has been made incredibly clear; work is needed on pitching and defense. Also, I think it wouldn’t hurt if they started wearing red on a regular basis, maybe for luck.

For someone reacquainting himself with the faces, and names of the league, some standout so far on the Rangers roster: Elvis Andrus, a promising rookie with incredible speed. Salty, Blalock, Hamilton, Cruz, Byrd, Young – well quite frankly the whole roster given that my primary devotion now lies with the Rangers.