» Tampa Bay Rays News

The Baltimore Orioles. A good offensive fantasy baseball team. But that’s about it, unfortunately. They’re a Pitching Staff and a Bullpen away from a playoff spot – and 3 top MLB teams as well (Red Sox, Yankees, Rays -probably respectively). You have to absolutely love their lineup (i’ll include Matt Wieters of course over Gregg Zaun):

1-Brian Roberts/2b: According to ESPN Player Rater (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?) he’s the 3rd best 2b as of now. Probably more like the 5th or 6th best, but still top notch in r;sb;295+avg

2-Adam Jones/cf: ranked 10th overall by ESPN Player Rater. Enough said. HR/SB + R/RBI + 315+Avg?!

3-Nick Markakis/rf: top 45, but Avg should raise and make him top 25

4-Aubrey Huff/1b: i’ll take him and his rbi on the O’s for one more year

5-Melvin Mora/3b: should put up acceptable #5 hitter stats in this lineup

6-Matt Wieters/c: I’m sure you already heard the Evan Longoria at 3b comparisons

7-Luke Scott/dh: 3 hr and 7 rbi in his last 2 games back from shoulder injury

8-Nolan Reimold/lf: top 6 prospect for the O’s (3 hr the past 3 games; 5hr in 53 ab’s)

9-Cesar Izturis/ss: Bleh. Sorry.

Their rotation consists of (for the most part): Jeremy Guthrie; Koji Uehera; Rich Hill; and then a sundry of guys. Their pitching prospects (that rate from B to B-) are David Hernandez; Troy Patton; Chris Tilman; Brian Matusz; Jake Arrieta; Brandon Erbe; and Zach Britton.

So the question is, what should/can they do? Honestly the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays should be great for years to come with their payroll availability, players, and rotations (minus payroll for the Rays of course). This year (although only 6 games outs), they probably don’t have a chance. Not without a solid rotation or bullpen. They have the third worst ERA in all of baseball.

I think they have some pieces other teams should be interested in that are more than expendable: Felix Pie/of, Ty Wigginton/if, and Gregg Zaun/c. This first tier probably won’t yield many good players in return. The next tier consists of Aubrey Huff/1b, Jeremy Guthrie/sp and maybe Melvin Mora/3b. They have 7 pitching prospects that are generally rated b- or better.

Aubrey Huff + Jeremy Guthrie to maybe the Mets could work out. The Mets should be looking for a 1b/of replacement for Carlos Delgado and an additional SP that can be more consistent than Oliver Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, and Jon Niese. I think Huff + Guthrie can net the Orioles a group of Tim Redding (a MLB starter); Jon Niese(sp) or Brad Holt (sp); Reese Havens or Wilmer Flores (ss); Joe Kunz(rp); and Jefrey Marte(3b) or Ike Davis(1b). This deal provides them a young sp for Guthrie plus a needed relief arm along with someone who can at least pitch for them now (Redding). In addition, it provides the Orioles with a 3b and ss for when Mora and Izturis are done/not worth it. As a Mets fan, I think it’s a bit much, but I’m attempting to be realistic. I’d rather the Mets go for Nick Johnson/Nationals for cheap and keep Daniel Murphy in LF. Honestly, I just want the Mets to get another Ace and forget about everything else – especially if the Phillies end up landing another SP.

Unless the Orioles want to trade Wieters+ to Boston, since they would love the Catcher, for Clay Buchholz + Michael Bowden – if the Red Sox or Orioles would even do that, obviously, Wieters should be untouchable. A deal like this, however, may make them a contender this year or next. The Red Sox rotation is probably deep enough: Beckett; Lester; Dicek; Penny; Smoltz; Wakefield; Masterson to maintain pace. A rotation of Guthrie; Ueherea; Buchholz; Bowden; Hill + Prospects looks pretty good.

So in my fantasy land, if I was the Orioles GM, I would perform the following trades:

In about 2-3 years, the team could then potentially compete for the AL East or at least the Wild Card. Else, at least the Orioles should enjoy watching their only 4 current bright spots for years to come (Roberts; Jones; Markakis; Wieters) with hopeful pitching prospects.

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

When the Tampa Bay Rays were discussing who they should pick with their 1st round pick in 2002 (2nd overall) after the Pirates went with cheap Bryan Bullington, whom they were confident they would sign, there was little or no discussion involved at all. Everybody seemed to agree that the best plan was to pick B.J. Upton, a.k.a Bossman Jr., a kid whose talent was undeniable, and who clearly had a bright future in this league. Picking Upton #2 in 2002 was one of the building block for future success which came to fruition in 2008.

Upton was a key contributor in 2008. Can he have an encore performance in '09?

Now, fast forward to 2009, where the defending AL champs Tampa Bay open up camp, and the Bossman is recovering from off season surgery on a torn labrum in his left shoulder. Upton played through this injury in 2008, not being able to hit for power with much success due to his injury, but instead concentrating on his base stealing (44 stolen bases) and his fielding (.983 FP with 378 putouts). Upton’s bat, at full strength, is a great addition to the heart of an already very strong lineup, and Upton provides a few keys to fixing the problems of the ‘08 Rays. Here are the three reasons why the Rays need him back at full strength to win in 2008:

#1) Besides newly added Pat Burrell, Upton is the only legit middle of the order bat the Rays have that hits Lefties well

As a whole, the Rays only have 4 regular projected starters who can hit lefties better then they hit righties: Aki Iwamura, Jason Bartlett, Pat Burrell and BJ Upton. Aki will likely be hitting either lead off, #2 or towards the bottom of the order depending on his performance in ST, Bartlett is comfortable in the 8-9 spot, leaving Burrell and Upton as the middle of the orders answer to LHP. Burrell is a known lefty killer from his days in Philadelphia, and the Rays signed him to do just that for the next two years. Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena, the lineups usual middle of the order men, do not project well against lefties (Pena hits a career .226 against LHP and Longoria hit .242 against LHP in his first full season). Against LHP, a fully healthy Upton can fit right in at the #3 spot, protect by Pat Burrell in the cleanup spot. The lineup needs to have an answer to C.C. Sabathia and the other potent lefties in the league.

#2) Upton is one of the few  truly legit base stealers on the Rays have

The Tampa Bay ranked 1st in Stolen Bases in 2008, as they stole 142 bases as a team. Now, consider that B.J. Upton stole 44 bases in that year, providing about 31% of the total. Now, Carl Crawford’s injury reduced him to playing only 109 total games, in which he stole 25 bases. A full healthy Crawford playing for 160 + games is assured at least 40 something steals, so the guy is legit. The only other guy to steal 20 or more bases was Jason Bartlett, the team MVP who batted 9th. The guy is an all round contributor, but at the 9th spot his impact is rather limited. So, basically, if Crawford cannot handle a full 2009, the Rays will need Upton to pick up the SB slack even more.

#3) Upton’s defensive capabilities in center are irreplaceable

Since being drafted in 2002, Upton has been switched to a multitude of defenisve positions based upon need and his own physical gifts. First, Upton played SS during his minor league career, never managing to get a hang of the position and delaying his own emergence to the majors. Finally, Upton made it to the major leagues, where he was played at 2B with decent success, and it looked like Upton had found a place to play. Then, when the Rays signed Aki Iwamura, and eventually moved him to 2B, BJ was put in Center Field. There, in 2008, Upton produced a solid defensive season, and is looking upon staying in CF for a long time. The OF helps show his cannon throwing arm and great fielding better then any position, and there is no doubt that nobody on the Rays can man Center as well as Upton, for few people in the league have more defensive ability in center.

What I am trying to say, in short, is that Upton contributes too the Rays in too many ways and is too valuable to Tampa Bay’s success. For the Rays to succeed this year, they will need him to recover his power stroke and to show his ability as a possible 35-100-40 player.

Ross’ Rapidfire Rays Notes

• Manager Joe Maddon announced Saturday that Carlos Hernandez will be the Rays’ starter for Wednesday’s Spring Training opener against the Reds at Charlotte County Park
• Rays hitters stepped up to the plate to face live pitching for the first time this spring Saturday.

What Head lines will ever consistent James Shields produce in 2009?

Hello, my name is Dennis Ross and I will be your blogger for the Tampa Bay Rays for hopefully a long time. Here’s just some basic stuff about me.

Background:

Born and raised in Philadelphia, PA, I am more then half way through my Junior year at LM High School. I get half way decent grades and play football for my high school.

How I became a Rays fan:

I first got hooked by baseball about 7-8 years ago, as the Yankees were dominating baseball, and my home town team, the Phillies, were a name synonymous with failure (This year and last year are convenient exceptions, as the Phillies happened to turn legit once I started following the Rays, kinda funny). I did not follow the Phillies or any one team in specific for quite a few years, enjoying watching the games that were on and not really rooting for anybody, until a few months ago. I started to plan out my future with the idea of moving to Tampa Bay after college or maybe even going to college (I see the University of Tampa as a top 3 possible college). Also, I am fond of a Tampa, which came out of nowhere and proved the whole league wrong.

My first impressions of the 2009 Rays season to be:

Great. Once more, the Rays are being low balled by most people who see them as the third best team in the AL East, behind big spender New York and a healthy Boston squad. The Rays thrive on this kind of thing, and will look once more to play with a chip on there shoulder. Anyway, the AL East race will no doubt be one of the best, if not the best race in the AL, and that the Rays will follow their new motto well, ‘09 > ‘08.

Ross’ rapid fire notes and analysis:

• The Tampa Bay Rays have signed pitcher Jason Isringhausen to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.

1. An attempt to keep the Bull Pen intact if (or more like when) Troy Percival goes down. Izzy might not be getting any younger, but he does provide good depth.

• The Rays made a minor trade Thursday, sending right hander Juan Salas, who was designated for assignment on Feb. 12, to the Indians for Minor League second baseman Isaias Velasquez.

1. The Rays have a surplus of relief pitching and are looking to deal some players who are running out of minor league options for some younger talent to develop. This trade is pretty fair on both sides.