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I had a friend text me again. He asked what I thought about the following trade:

He would give up Alex Rodriguez/3b; Kyle Lohse/sp; Stephen Drew/ss and receive Ian Kinsler/2b; Joba Chamberlain/sp>rp; and Mark Derosa/if.

I told him there were a few contingencies:

1) Is it a keeper league? If so, go for it because I’d definitely keep Kinsler + Joba over Arod + Drew. Kinsler’s younger and cheaper than Arod (even in fantasy depending on how your keeper league might work).

2) Is his middle infielders killing him?

3) Does he have a solid 3b/corner infield to back up for A-rod’s absence (hoping Derosa isn’t it)

4) Finally, I told him to attempt to wait it out and see if Joba will become a reliever since the Yankees have Wang back and the young Philip Hughes. My opinion is that he will becuase he was much more dominant there and Wang’s stuff is meant to start and Hughes is a stud.

Therefore, I told him the only player straight up I’d trade A-rod for is Pujols and maybe Hanley. Unless he believes Joba will remain a starter and so long as it’s not a keeper league, I suggested him not to do it. 1+ Months out of baseball, and A-rod is still on pace for 45+ homers.

Hopefully you read one of my last posts regarding Johan Santana as the NL MVP for 2009 (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/baseball-news/mets-rotation-johan-santanamvp-trade-needed/). Basically it gave Johan Santana’s stats up to that point and iterated the need for a starting pitcher via trade.

In Santana’s 1 loss, he had a line of 7 innings; 3 hits; 2 runs (BOTH UNEARNED); 1 walk; and 13 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he went up against Josh Johnson/FLA. Last night he went up against Chan Ho Park/PHL (horrendous). Nauseatingly, Park went 6 innings; 1 hit; 2 walks; 1 HBP; and 5 strikeouts. Santana 1-Up’ed him (not in hits) going 7 innings; 2 hits; 3 walks; and 10 strikeouts.

Johan Santana is now 4-1 with a .91 ERA and a .91 WHIP. He’s got 54 K’s in 39.2 IP. He’s 2nd in the NL in wins; 1st in strikeouts; 2nd in WHIP; and 1st in ERA.

Prior to last night’s game he was giving up 1.1 runs a game and was only getting 2.2 runs a game from his offense. Now he’s given up only .91 runs a game (not even a run a game!) and in last night’s win, he got less than half his 2.2 runs a game support. The Mets really need to start provding him with some runs. No matter how much I stress that statement, it will still be the understatement of the world.

Johan Santana is still undefeated against the Phillies, the Mets new and beyond obvious, nemesis. He is now 3-0 lifetime against the Phillies in 7 career starts with a 2.44 ERA – phenomenal.

Johan Santana now has 31% of the Mets wins on the season. With complete concerns and inconsistency from Mike Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine (pitched solid other than bb’s in his past 2 starts), Johan Santana is infinitely important. I understand that the CY Young is the award to receive for a pitcher, and it epitomizes how great of a season a starter had, however, the MVP is how fantastic a player is and helps his team. There’s no doubt in my mind that Johan Santana at this point is the NL MVP and should be by season’s end. Of course the obvious competition is Albert Pujols/1b-STL. He is absolutely amazing: .364avg-28r-11hr-31rbi-4sb-.467obp-.747slg-1.215ops. According to ESPN, he’s on pace for 167r-66hr-185rbi-24sb. These stats are sensational. He’s the best hitter in the MLB. And if those stolen bases keep up he’ll be by far the best fantasy player (even with out them he will be). If you’re willing to trade him for needed roster slots, you better get a top notch player at each position you need: I’m talking Youkilis/1b; Hamels/sp; McCann/c. And then you can provide an extraneous SP & C back (just a wee-bit of fantasy talk).

Honestly, it’s up in the air, and Albert Pujols (#1 overall on ESPN Player Rater) is so utterly valuabe to the Cardinals. They have other hitters performing right now though – Ryan Ludwick/of; Chris Duncan/of; and Yadier Molina/c. They also have 3 starting pitchers performing well: Joel Pineiro; Kyle Lohse; and of course Mets’ horror Adam Wainwright. I’ve explained before in my last post. The Mets have solid offense: Reyes-Murphy-Beltran-Delgado-Wright, but they only have one great starter: Johan Santana (#5 overall on ESPN Player Rater) – http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

The St. Louis Cardinals have set their opening day roster – and it includes some surprises.

David Freese, who the Cards acquired in the Jim Edmonds trade to San Diego last offseason, is set to be the Opening Day starter at 3rd base. He will be the main 3rd baseman, with newcomer Brian Barden and several others as backups.

Colby Rasmus is the player who you shouldn’t be surprised about seeing with the big club. Rasmus had a good spring, and is slated to be the starting left fielder for St. Louis

In addition, Chris Perez has been sent down to AAA Memphis and Jason Motte will be the Cards’ closer. Brad Thompson is also staying with the Big Birds.

It sounds like Troy Glaus will be out more than originally thought. After meeting with team doctors, it was determined that his rehab has not gone as fast as hoped, and he could be out until (or after) the All Star Break. Glaus, who hit .299 with 27 home runs and 99 RBIs in 2008, is in the final year of his contract with St. Louis, and he will most likely not re-sign with the team in the 2009-10 offseason.

METS 5, CARDINALS 4

Luis Castillio, Jose Valentin, Murphy, and Marlon Anderson all had an excellent game. Valentin had three base hits and scored on two occasions. Murphy slammed a triple which drove in two in the fifth inning, and Marlon Anderson capped it off in the 9′th with a game winning single. Overall I am very, very pleased to see Valentin and Anderson hitting. These two will play crucial backup and supporting roles throughout the long season in 2009.

As for pitching, Niese had a strong first, but stumbled in the second. Antonini pitched two strong, only allowing 1 hit and no runs. Finally Duaner did walk 2 batters but no runs came as a result.

Up next: The Mets return home on Saturday for a game against the Nationals. Scott Olsen pitches for Washington against Dillon Gee at 1:10 p.m. ET. It’s the first of a home-and-home between the National League East rivals.

Ok, so the Mets’ bid for a perfect ST has gone down the toilet, but hey, their bats certainly werent the problem!

On offense, we got to see Bobby Kietly’s first home run of the spring, a three run blast. Church, Rivera, Beltran, and Delgado also contributed to the hit parade.

On the mound: Livan Hernandez made his exhibition-game debut with two scoreless innings and appeared to be quite effective. His primary competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, Freddy Garcia, was not at all effective. He walked three, allowed two hits and four runs — two earned — in two-thirds of an inning. \

Overall, in the first three games, we have seen more than 20 runs total out of the Mets, and we are seeing some other promising things as well. Livon is certainly making his bid for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, and I would love to see him eat some innings for the Mets all season long.

Coming next, the Mets take on the Tigers, where Niese and Parnell will show us what they’ve got. Let’s Go Mets!

Ft. Lauderdale, FL – One day after the Cardinals’ pitching got hammered by Baltimore, they managed to survive a scare provided by the South Side New York Mets. The Cards got off to another rough start, when starter Todd Wellemeyer allowed 3 runs in the 2nd inning. Freddy Garcia relieved Mets starter Livan Hernandez in the top of the 3rd, and was anything but effective. He walked three, allowed two hits and four runs (two earned) in two thirds of the inning, and the Cards went back on top 4-3.

The Cards seemed to have control of the game going into the bottom of the 9th, being up 9-5, but Cards relievers Adam Ottavino and Royce Ring struggled. Ottavino allowed 3 runs, 3 hits and 2 walks in the 8th, and Ring allowed 2 runs on 4 hits in the 9th. St. Louis luckily got out of a jam and ended up winning the game.

St. Louis now has a win on the board, with their record at 1-1-1. The Mets suffered their first Spring Training loss, falling to 2-1.

The St. Louis Cardinals were technically the home team, but it sure felt like a home game for the Marlins in Jupiter, Fla. The two squads tied 5-5. Picking up most of the runs for the Birds were Rick Ankiel (2-3, 2 RBI) and new 2nd baseman Skip Schumaker (2-4, 2 runs). Starting pitcher Blake Hawksworth pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings, allowing just three hits and striking out two. Royce Ring, a lefty reliever who the Cards signed in the offseason, retired all four batters he faced, striking out two.

The Fish got on the board with a Hanley Ramirez two-run homer in the 6th, and knocked in 3 runs in the 8th. The Cardinals were up 5-2 in the 8th before invitee Fernando Salas blew the three run lead.

Overall, given the different lineup (Schumaker at 2nd, Joe Mather at 3rd) and the so-so pitching, today was a decent day, but not what the Cards hoped. I believe that the team will have better days – but then again, today’s only Day One of Spring Training.

It’s the final entry in the best and worst moves of the Walt Jocketty & John Mozeliak eras.

Best # 1: Drafting Albert Pujols

# 5 is one of the best players in the league

Albert Pujols was drafted in the 13th round of the 1999 Draft. He would come up on the 2001 roster as a LF, and the rest is history. In 8 seasons, Pujols has compiled a .334 batting average, 1,531 hits, and 319 home runs. Like Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen, Pujols had his career year in 2004, hitting .331, hitting 46 homers and knocking in 123 runners. Albert Pujols is currently one of the best players in the league, and will probably be in the Hall of Fame when his career is over.

Worst # 1: The Mark Mulder trade

A good pitcher... for a while.

Mark Mulder was one of the best pitchers in the Majors in the early 2000s. The Cards traded for him by dealing Dan Haren, Kiko Calero and Daric Barton to Oakland. Mulder had a great 2005 season, going 16-8 with a 3.68 ERA and striking out 111. He started showing signs of trouble in 2006, when he began having shoulder issues. He would only pitch in 23 games between 2006 and 2008, compiling a record of 0-3 and having an ERA of over 10 in 2007 and 2008. Dan Haren and Daric Barton are both having success elsewhere, and now that Cardinals fans look back on the trade, they wish it never happened.

Best # 2: Building the 2004 team

One of the best squads I've ever seen.

The 2004 St. Louis Cardinals were a great squad. They had some of the best talent that I have ever seen a Cardinals team have. The team had great offense and pitching. All 5 starters (Jason Marquis, Matt Morris, Chris Carpenter, Jeff Suppan, Woody Williams) had more than 10 wins. It was unfortunate to see a team that went 105-57 get swept by the Red Sox in the World Series, but I think that was the most talent I have ever seen St. Louis have on one team.

Worst # 2: Chris Lambert traded for Mike Maroth

Maroth was not a good trade.

The 2007 Cardinals were a terrible team, and desperate for pitching because of injuries. Mike Maroth had a good debut game with the team, but he struggled just like the rest of the squad for the remainder of the season. In 14 outings, Maroth went 0-5 with a 10.66 ERA. Watching him out on the mound made me want to do a lot of bad things to myself.