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I’m more than content. Cliff Lee was lights out for the Phillies, they have less payroll flexibility for 4 years, and the Phillies could have had both Lee & Halladay leading that rotation together.

Halladay; Lee; Hamels;  Happ; Blanton/Drabek/Moyer would have been Lights Out.

Also I think some other moves fall into place now. The Mariners upgraded already this off season with the Figgins signing and another ace in Lee. I think they’ll next go with power in LF via Bay or Holliday, which then potentially forces the other to accept a little less money from the Mets/Giants/Red Sox/Yankees. However, with Cameron to Boston, the Sox are out of it, and in my opinion Damon (for 5-7 million and 3-4 years less than Holliday) re-signs with the Yankees. Therefore, either Holliday or Bay signs to a slightly less than expected deal with the Mets.

No matter what, I fully expect the Phillies to take the NL East yet again – unlike the past 3 years.

I truly wish the Mets were the 3rd team in the Yankees-Tigers-(D-backs) deal replacing the D-backs. I thought 0f a crazy, but interesting scenario that could have actually worked: Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada or Reese Havens, and Brad Holt or Bobby Parnell from the Mets; Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson from the Yankees, and Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers.

Mets receive: Miguel Cabrera/1b, Robinson Cano/2b, Curtis Granderson/cf, Phil Hughes/sp (go on to sign a FA LF & another SP and their offseason needs would have been completed beyond expectations)

Yankees receive: Carlos Beltran, Edwin Jackson, Wilmer Flores (and go on to sign Hudson or FA 2b + FA lf)

Tigers receive: Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Tejada/Havens, Holt/Parnell, Austin Jackson (and get even more payroll flexiblity trading Miguel Cabrera for a decent haul). I of course understand the Tigers got a very nice haul of SP’s from the trade they actually did complete with the Yanks & D-back. I think if Scherzer stays healthy, Verlander through Porcello can still keep them toward the top of the AL Central.

Do you think my proposed 3-way above is irrational, however? It completely depletes the Mets farm system, which isn’t great any way, but I think it instantaneously helps them compete with the Phillies.

Over at U.S.S. Mariner, Dave Cameron meditates on Russell Branyan and his refusal to regress to his mean performance. Branyan, who is the best off-season acquisition in baseball on a cost-to-returns basis ($1.4 million this year for .317 avg, 14 HR, .414 OBP and .614 SLG), has seen his batting average decline from .333 in April to .290 in June. However, he’s been rock steady in on-base and slugging percentages because he’s reduced the number of times he strikes out and increased his walk rate to compensate.

The Mariners did not pursue Raul Ibañez, who is having a career year in Philadelphia with 21 HR, .322 avg., .377 OBP and .674 SLG. But Raul is earning $7.2 million this year, more than five times Branyan’s salary. The only categories where Ibañez leads Branyan, home runs (21 v. 14) and RBIs (58 v. 29, which accounts for Raul’s higher slugging percentage, as well) are functions of the batters around them in their respective lineups. Branyan, batting in the two-hole these days, has had fewer opportunities to drive in runs while Ibañez is batting behind Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and is followed by Jason Werth. The Phillies are paying a premium up and down its batting order on which Ibañez is cashing in.

Branyan is delivering more for the money. With this salary and a one-year deal, he’s pretty certain to be trade bait this June and July.

IN OTHER NEWS: Down in the minors, 3B Alex Liddi of the High Desert Mavericks (Hi-A), who played for Italy in the WBC, is tearing the cover off the ball. In 57 games, 234 at-bats, he’s got 15 home runs, 56 RBIs, .333 avg. and .628 SLG. Someone to watch.

Thank the baseball gods and pass the popcorn, Jack Zduriencik and his scouting team are going for power position players, not pitchers, in the first rounds of the draft. This fills the pipeline with defensive options, some with great power, that can play in Seattle or be traded for proven pitching prospects. It’s a much better strategy than the majority of teams in this year’s draft, the majority of which have gone for pitchers through the middle of round two.

First-round pick Dustin Ackley (scouting report), a UNC outfielder (here’s the UNC paper’s coverage) who projects as an Major League center fielder is a “pure hitter.” Ackley has batted over .400 for the past three years in one of the toughest divisions of college baseball. Ackley holds UNC’s single-season record for total bases, having batted .412, with 103 hits, 80 RBIs and 22 home runs in his senior year. This is a solid fast-track player. He played first base this season after Tommy John surgery, but Zduriencik and Mariners director of amateur scouting Tom McNamara expect him to land in the outfield at Safeco.

Nick Franklin (scouting report), a high school shortstop from Florida, was the Mariners’ second-round pick. A “toolsy” player lauded for being a “real baseball player” by the MLB TV commentators, at just 18, Franklin will be a few years before his real potential can be projected. A catcher, right-handed high-schooler Steven Baron (scouting report) was the team’s third pick, in the compensation round, followed by University of Georgia first baseman Richard Poythress (scouting report) in the second round. Both players seem to be valued for their defensive skills, each reportedly having problems at the plate.

Another UNC player, junior second baseman Kyle Seager (scouting report), was picked with fifth pick. A solid defender who could play second or third, features some speed on the bases and moderate power at the plate. He looks like a potential sleeper, perhaps showing something the Mariners liked, as he wasn’t picked to go in the first 100 picks.

Let the Washington Nationals have Stephen Strasburg, whose “once-in-a-generation” status comes with all the risk of a pitcher in the draft plus overwhelmingly high expectations. On MLB TV today, Tony Gwynn, Strasburg’s coach at San Diego State, is reported to have said there are no comparable pitchers to the 100-mile fast ball pitcher—hopefully for the Nationals, he’ll not follow previous sure-fire pitchers like Rick Ankiel and Mark Prior, both of whom overpitched young to keep up with management’s expectations.

It is difficult to blog about the Seattle Mariners, because the team is like a bug stuck in amber. Sometimes, when you turn it in the light it is beautiful and fun to watch. At others, it is a bug, stuck in time. The 8-run comeback yesterday by the Angels, just when the Mariners were poised to sweep LA and drive the predicted leader of the AL West to .500, Seattle melted down.

Now, the M’s head into June playing .471 ball, 24 – 27, the two catalysts for change available to the club are the draft and the trade market. Both offer solid options, especially if Seattle and its fans don’t get distracted by the fact that Stephen Strasbourg will land with the Nationals—the Scott Boras client is not a lock for greatness, as Rick Ankiel, another pitcher that couldn’t lose, proved a decade ago, before Ankiel stopped pitching, had his shoulder rebuilt and learned to play outfield. Consider this statement about Strasbourg: “not since Mark Prior has there been this kind of buzz about an amateur pitcher.” I agree with John Hickey, Strasbourg going to the Nationals is not the M’s great loss.

In fact, I’d like to see Seattle focus on offense in the draft and deal with its pitching needs—three starters and middle relief, since the M’s have Chad Cordero tucked away—through trades. Dustin Ackley, a solid defensive center fielder from the University of North Carolina who hits well, has speed and a surgically repaired elbow, is anticipated to be the first hitter taken in the draft, and he’d be a good fit with the team in a couple years. Because the Mariners also have Carlos Truinfel, an outstanding shortstop prospect who recently had surgery, the team may also want to take a pass on USC’s Grant Green, a toolsy defender with a good batting eye who needs to develop a bit more power to justify the Evan Longoria comparisons I’ve read. 

Seattle should stay away from High School picks this time around, as it needs to see results sooner rather than later, and because the best prep offensive player, Donavan Tate out of Georgia, described here, along with other top prep prospects, will probably end up playing football and baseball in college. Let other teams waste picks on these guys, let these guys go to college. 

On the trade front, Adrian Beltre, Yuniesky Betancourt, Jose Lopez, Franklin Gutierrez, Wladimir Balentien, Russell Branyan, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, Chris Jakubauskas and Garret Olson should all be considered trade material, for which Jack Zduriencik should consider pitching prospects. He’s shown a good eye in player development over the years, and the Branyan signing has turned into a solid decision that he can exploit, if needed, to bring young arms to Seattle.

But something has to change, because the current state of affairs is too predictably mediocre, largely because the team is still a strong reflection of the Bavasi years. More change will create more opportunities for improvement, for the team that has started to emerge on the field to shift its center to players with the greatest drive to win.

Adrian Beltre, who I suspect is injured, because he is not moving down the baseline with any speed this year, will ride the bench in Moday’s game versus the Angels and two-pitches-and-yer-ejected John Lackey. Beltre has also shown very poor timing on pitches. If anything, his batting eye is getting worse with each passing week.

Being benched did some good for Yuniesky Betancourt last week, who has raised his average by more than 10 points during the past 10 games, but Beltre doesn’t look like he needs encouragement, he looks like he just doesn’t have any presence at the plate. He’s sitting on a .211 average for the season, more than 50 points below last year’s full-season number, when he was playing hurt. The bottom line, though, is that it shouldn’t take a benching to get a major league player on track.

Yesterday’s walk-off win over the Red Sox showed Jason Vargas has some staying power, that Mark Lowe is potentially the closer of the future after all (with David Aardsma in the 8th), and that the bottom of the order can deliver a clutch win. All good signs. Right now, the M’s are being held back by slumping bats in the middle of the order.

Russell Branyan is the best free-agent signing, on a price/performance basis, of the winter. The M’s may have passed on Raul Ibañez, who is tearing up pitchers for the Phillies, but Branyan is delivering huge returns on his much lower salary.

Brandon Morrow returned after giving up the losing hit yesterday to surrender two home runs in the bottom of the ninth to blow a great start by Felix Hernandez (7 innings pitched, four hits, no runs on 6 strikeouts). Chris Davis of the Rangers delivered the coup de gras, walking off with the win. Morrow’s not showing the range of pitches he did at the end of last year, when he was in the rotation. 

Seattle drops to 16-19, third place in the AL West.

When the M’s fail to provide a lot of offense, they are very vulnerable. It’s time for some creative reconfiguring of the roster. Morrow’s three hits and two home runs in four batters was pretty miserable. His ERA appears to be heading north of 10, not the stats Seattle needs from its closer.

Tomorrow night, Tacoma native Jon Lester starts for the Red Sox vs. Chris Jakubauskas for the Mariners.

It’s about time. Yuniesky Betancourt has been benched by Mariners Manager Don Wakamatsu. A couple Sundays back, when Yuni had two errors on two consecutive grounders hit to short, it became clear that the time had come to give up on any dreams of hidden greatness and move on.

Comparing Beltre and Betancourt

While Betancourt did demonstrate some improved plate discipline early this season, it hasn’t delivered great results. His .259 batting average hides how really bad he’s been. There’s no power and little tactical value in his 12 RBIs, four two-baggers and one home run.

The really frightening thing is that Adrian Beltre is batting worse that Betancourt. Beltre did add a home run during tonights ongoing game with Texas, but it’s time for some answers: Is Beltre playing hurt?

The 15-inning rubber game of the Mariners-Athletics series this weekend marked an important turning point for The Team No One Believed In. Coming back during the first nine innings to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, falling behind by three runs in the 13th but recovering to win on a Jose Lopez single, the Mariners demonstrated that they have the drive to win, regardless of the circumstances. After 33 innings of baseball this weekend, the team still poured onto the field to congratulate Lopez, who also won Friday’s game with a single in the bottom of the ninth. 

A real team has appeared in Seattle this season.

The Wak Ball of the early games has given way to a more traditional hit-and-run game in the last week, but the M’s are still finding ways to grind out wins. Jason Vargas, who won today’s game after two-and-a-third innings of relief, made his 2009 debut, following the long-absent Denny Stark, whose last pitch in the majors was five years ago. Mike Sweeney also contributed his first home run of the season, as did catcher Kenji Johjima, fresh off the disabled list as of Friday. Franklin Gutierrez and Yunieksy Betancourt have both built their averages up to be consistent bottom-of-the-order contributors. The offense of the team is firing on all cylinders in clutch situations. 

The five-run rule, laid out here, has held up and is essential to the Mariners continuing their winning ways. The team has won all but one of the games in which they scored more than five runs and held the opponent to less than five, 10 games in all (almost exactly the 85% of wins in this situation I predicted, though it was little more than a lucky estimate). The M’s have lost 10 games in which they scored less than five runs. The difference, which accounts for the team’s surprising and pleasing 15-10 record, is the five games in which the the M’s pulled a win out in low-scoring games, when both teams scored fewer than five runs. 

Good pitching has made the real difference. Hernandez, Bedard and Washburn have pitched well. Jakubauskus pitched well today, and he was great in his two-hit loss to the White Sox last Tuesday. 

But there are still some weaknesses. Carlos Silva was horrible again on Friday night. I believe Chris Jakubauskas, today’s starter, would be pitching for wins instead of finding his footing if he’d taken Silva’s place on the roster at the beginning of the season. The good news is that GM Jack Zduriencik has given Silva an ultimatum about his performance, the bad news is that there isn’t a clearly prepared replacement candidate at Tacoma. After Vargas’ promotion, Garrett Olson is the closest to a major-league starter. 

It’s time for Zduriencik to package one of the many catchers he has–Jeff Clement has played better since being sent back to Tacoma–with a pitching prospect in the lower minors to get another quality starter, a number four or five guy to lock down at least 11 more wins this season, which Silva won’t deliver.

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

Ichiro's move to second

The “new look Seattle Mariners” are a hell of a lot better than the old Mariners. Surprisingly, some of the bad old Mariners, such as Jarrod Washburn, who pitches tonight against Andy Sonnanstine and the Tampa Bay Rays, are showing signs of renewed Major League skills at 2—0 and a .180 ERA on the season. Pitching, however, isn’t the mainspring of Wakball, the game this new Mariners team is playing. The essence of the new style, though, is a kind of small ball that you don’t even see in the National League anymore.

As U.S.S. Mariner pointed out the other day, Don Wakamatsu likes to bunt. The bunt has also come back to bite the Mariners over the weekend, when Detroit countered with its own small ball game. Rule One of Successful Wakball, then, might be “If you bunt, you’d better be able to field a bunt, too.” Bunting, though, is just part of the new game, even if the M’s are currently on track to double or triple the average number of bunts by a team during the year. The team’s continuing defensive development is critical to continuing its early success. 

After watching Yuniesky Betancourt bobble two easy grounders on Sunday, I want to know when Wak and GM Jack Zduriencik are going to make a move to fix the awful hole that has developed between third and second bases. His bat is slightly better than last year, but his defense is downgraded. Time for a change. Would Matt Tuiasosopo be able to move to Shortstop?

Second, Wakball is defined by moving the runner along. Franklin Gutierrez exists to move up a base or to move a runner along. His batting average is .237, which is way up over the weekend, but his Slugging Percentage is .395, which means he’s contributing more than twice as many bases to the team’s progress than times he is getting a hit. Endy Chavez, who has far exceeded his expected production through the first 13 games, is delivering hits (20) with an excellent .293 batting average, but he’s also stealing bases (4) and has a good, though not great, slugging percentage of .471.

But the new ballgame ends there. On a stat-by-stat basis, the Mariners do not stand out in any offensive category. The surprising pitching performances so far this year have given the Mariners the advantage more often than not. My “five runs will win” rule, laid out here, has held true in all but two games in which the team has scored five runs (two of the games in Minnesota), because Seattle pitching has held up so well. Tonight’s Washburn outing will be a keystone to the first half of the season. If Washburn continues his excellent performance, Seattle’s will be far and away the best pitching in the AL West and in the top-five among all Major League teams, which is the recipe for at least .500 ball.

Wakball still needs a couple more foundations, but the outlines are pleasing so far.