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  • New FB Rankings
    By DSchwartz on April 24, 2009 | 2 Comments2 Comments  Comments

    Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

    Players: 1-48

    Pos

    Players 49-96

    Pos

    Hanley Ramirez

    ss

    Jon Papelbon

    rp

    Albert Pujols

    1b

    Rafael Furcal

    ss

    Jose Reyes

    ss

    David Ortiz

    dh

    David Wright

    3b

    Bobby Abreu

    of

    Miguel Cabrera

    1b

    Nate Mclouth

    of

    Ryan Bruan

    of

    Curtis Granderson

    of

    Chase Utley

    2b

    Corey Hart

    of

    Ian Kinsler

    2b

    Alexei Ramirez

    mi

    Grady Sizemore

    of

    Carlos Pena

    1b

    Ryan Howard

    1b

    Shane Victorino

    of

    Evan Longoria

    3b

    Jacoby Ellsbury

    of

    Jimmy Rollins

    ss

    Geovany Soto

    c

    Johan Santana

    sp

    Josh Beckett

    sp

    Josh Hamilton

    of

    Roy Oswalt

    sp

    Alex Rodriguez

    3b

    Chad Billinglsey

    sp

    Mark Teixeira

    1b

    Robinson Cano

    2b

    Justin Morneau

    1b

    Joey Votto

    1b

    Lance Berkman

    of

    Mariano Rivera

    rp

    Matt Kemp

    of

    Joe Nathan

    rp

    Nick Markakis

    of

    Ryan Ludwick

    of

    Carlos Beltran

    of

    Chone Figgins

    3b

    Alfonso Soriano

    of

    Dan Uggla

    2b

    Carlos Quentin

    of

    Joakim Soria

    rp

    Prince Fielder

    1b

    Francisco Rodriguez

    rp

    Tim Lincecum

    sp

    Magglio Ordonez

    of

    Manny Ramirez

    of

    Chipper Jones

    3b

    Kevin Youkilis

    ci

    Johnny Damon

    of

    Dustin Pedroia

    2b

    Carlos Delgado

    1b

    BJ Upton

    of

    Andre Ethier

    of

    Roy Halladay

    sp

    Michael Young

    ss;3b

    CC Sabathia

    sp

    Aubrey Huff

    ci

    Carlos Lee

    of

    Adam Dunn

    of;1b

    Dan Haren

    sp

    Chris Davis

    ci

    Matt Holliday

    of

    Joe Mauer

    c

    Aramis Ramirez

    3b

    James Shields

    sp

    Adrian Gonzalez

    1b

    Garret Atkins

    3b

    Jake Peavy

    sp

    Zack Greinke

    sp

    Brian Roberts

    2b

    Hunter Pence

    of

    Carl Crawford

    of

    Derek Jeter

    ss

    Brandon Phillips

    2b

    Felix Hernandez

    sp

    Ichiro Suzuki

    of

    Scott Kazmir

    sp

    Jason Bay

    of

    Jon Broxton

    rp

    Alex Rios

    of

    Brad Lidge

    rp

    Brandon Webb

    sp

    AJ Burnett

    sp

    Victor Martinez

    c;1b

    Derek Lee

    1b

    Cole Hamels

    sp

    Rich Harden

    sp

    Brian McCann

    c

    Joba Chamberlain

    sp

    Russel Martin

    c

    Raul Ibanez

    of

    Bubble:

    Wainwright;Gallardo

    sp

    Jjohnson;Ebedard

    sp

    Hbell;Mcapps

    cl

    Ncruz;JBruce;AdJones

    of

    THunter;JDye;Vguerrero

    of

    Rzimmerman;Mreynolds

    ss

    Lilly;Cain;Vazquez;

    sp

    Sdrew;Ttulowitski

    ss

    Orlando Hudson

    2b

    Top 12/Round 1:

    In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

    Round 2/Players 13-24:

    There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

    Round 3/Players 25-36:

    Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

    Round 4/Players 37-48:

    Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

    Round 5/Players 49-60:

    I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

    Round 6/Players 61-72:

    I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

    Round 7/Players 73-84:

    Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2nd half or 2008-1st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

    Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

    Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

    As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

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  • A Tale Of Two Olly’s – Mets Get First Win At Citi Field!
    By Jeffrey Gross on April 16, 2009 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments

    What a difference a few days can make. Oliver Perez brought the A-Game the Mets needed today in a sparkling 1 Run performance. Even more than his strong pitching performance, were the invigorating at bats he had tonight. How entertaining was that?! This guy was really working the count and taking some monster hacks up there. OK, so he missed…but still awesome enthusiasm, and you just have to love the bat smashing after the strikeouts haha. 

    Besides that, we saw some good signs in other aspects of the team as well. Parnell looked good, Putz was strong…and Delgado is just getting started. Delgado will be getting very familiar with the Pepsi porch in right field this season. 

    I also had the displeasure of watching the sloppiest overall inning of baseball I have seen this season so far. The Padres absolutely amazed me in that 8th inning, more mental errors were made than Mets runs scored in the inning. Totally, incredibly sloppy…but hey I wont complain :-) It worked out for the Mets for sure. 

    Oh, Ryan Church struck out for the first time this season tonight…It boggles my mind that he sat tonight…incredibly, insanely ridiculous. Ugh….

    Let’s hope we see this Olly more often. If we do…that 30 Million + investment won’t look so silly. Let’s Go Mets!

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