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I’m more than content. Cliff Lee was lights out for the Phillies, they have less payroll flexibility for 4 years, and the Phillies could have had both Lee & Halladay leading that rotation together.

Halladay; Lee; Hamels;  Happ; Blanton/Drabek/Moyer would have been Lights Out.

Also I think some other moves fall into place now. The Mariners upgraded already this off season with the Figgins signing and another ace in Lee. I think they’ll next go with power in LF via Bay or Holliday, which then potentially forces the other to accept a little less money from the Mets/Giants/Red Sox/Yankees. However, with Cameron to Boston, the Sox are out of it, and in my opinion Damon (for 5-7 million and 3-4 years less than Holliday) re-signs with the Yankees. Therefore, either Holliday or Bay signs to a slightly less than expected deal with the Mets.

No matter what, I fully expect the Phillies to take the NL East yet again – unlike the past 3 years.

I truly wish the Mets were the 3rd team in the Yankees-Tigers-(D-backs) deal replacing the D-backs. I thought 0f a crazy, but interesting scenario that could have actually worked: Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, Ruben Tejada or Reese Havens, and Brad Holt or Bobby Parnell from the Mets; Robinson Cano, Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson from the Yankees, and Edwin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, and Miguel Cabrera from the Tigers.

Mets receive: Miguel Cabrera/1b, Robinson Cano/2b, Curtis Granderson/cf, Phil Hughes/sp (go on to sign a FA LF & another SP and their offseason needs would have been completed beyond expectations)

Yankees receive: Carlos Beltran, Edwin Jackson, Wilmer Flores (and go on to sign Hudson or FA 2b + FA lf)

Tigers receive: Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez, Tejada/Havens, Holt/Parnell, Austin Jackson (and get even more payroll flexiblity trading Miguel Cabrera for a decent haul). I of course understand the Tigers got a very nice haul of SP’s from the trade they actually did complete with the Yanks & D-back. I think if Scherzer stays healthy, Verlander through Porcello can still keep them toward the top of the AL Central.

Do you think my proposed 3-way above is irrational, however? It completely depletes the Mets farm system, which isn’t great any way, but I think it instantaneously helps them compete with the Phillies.

Wowzer. 3-4 years ago, I thought the Braves and Mets would never trade with each other again in the history of baseball. I thought only the Red Sox and Yankees were less likely to make a deal – a now it’s Phillies and Mets of course. Interesting deal! The potential out of Jeff Francoeur I like a lot more than the injury potential of Ryan Church. Jeff Francoeur is a great right-fielder, fairly healthy, and young enough where he can improve – ten-fold from how he’s performing now. He’s only 25 and went back to back years with 100+ rbis in 2006 and 2007. He hit for average in 2007, but I don’t know if he’ll ever really do that again, and if its his mind making him perform bad in Atlanta…well, I don’t think that will get much better in New York, but again, I still like the deal. It’s a small shakeup. The Mets need to do a lot more, but they won’t with the market and asking prices. So lets hope this and JJ Putz, Billy Wanger (I mean Wagner, but I figured i’d leave the mispelling), and Carlos Delgado can help the team enough in August and the same for Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes when they get healthy (as well as John Maine & Oliver Perez who already had the epitomic Oliver Perez-like start). And most importantly, the Mets need the help of the Phillies, that they have somewhat received early season until now, but may not any longer.

And I’m not even talking about their trade for Nate Mclouth from the Rates,Pir. I’m talking about their call-up of Tommy Hanson who has a 1.50 era and 90 k’s in 66+ innings. He’ll be successul right away in the MLB.

Fantasy-eers should pick him up immediately. This does definitely worry me as a Mets fan. Not only can the Phillies do what the Mets can’t (sweep a team that they should sweep and rack in the runs), but now the Braves have by far the best rotation in the NL East – they probably did prior to Hanson’s call up, but now they’ll be even better. I’m sure Mclouth will help them a bit as well since their production in the OF has been extremely sub-par.

The Mets need to make a move asap. They need pitching. Livan Hernandez against good teams in big spots and Tim Redding won’t do it. Jon Niese will be better than Redding and Livan, but at this point, he wouldn’t do it as well.

We need a number 2 or 3 pitcher in addition to just Maine and Pelfrey. I don’t think Oliver Perez will get healthy and stay consistent either. Maybe Matt Holliday/lf would help offensively. We’ve already had confirmed that Omar Minaya won’t trade Fernando Martinez/of for him, and therefore probably won’t be trading him at all, which pretty much also confirms we won’t be acquiring a top notch starter. I really can’t believe the Mets are going to attempt to win this division with our number 4 and 5 starters being Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, Oliver Perez, and or Jon Niese.

I feel as though the Mets can definitely land a top notch starter with their recent performances from ‘2nd tier’ pitching prospects (Brad Holt & Jenrry Mejia) in addition to decent ss prospects (Reese Havens, who just went on the Minor League DL, Ruben Tejada, and Wilmer Flores, who are still so young), and Jon Niese. I’m not only worried about the Phillies now, but also the Braves. I honestly think they need to shake up the team and make some moves:

http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/major-league-baseball/lets-play-gm-mets-crazy-trade-scenarios/

The Baltimore Orioles. A good offensive fantasy baseball team. But that’s about it, unfortunately. They’re a Pitching Staff and a Bullpen away from a playoff spot – and 3 top MLB teams as well (Red Sox, Yankees, Rays -probably respectively). You have to absolutely love their lineup (i’ll include Matt Wieters of course over Gregg Zaun):

1-Brian Roberts/2b: According to ESPN Player Rater (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?) he’s the 3rd best 2b as of now. Probably more like the 5th or 6th best, but still top notch in r;sb;295+avg

2-Adam Jones/cf: ranked 10th overall by ESPN Player Rater. Enough said. HR/SB + R/RBI + 315+Avg?!

3-Nick Markakis/rf: top 45, but Avg should raise and make him top 25

4-Aubrey Huff/1b: i’ll take him and his rbi on the O’s for one more year

5-Melvin Mora/3b: should put up acceptable #5 hitter stats in this lineup

6-Matt Wieters/c: I’m sure you already heard the Evan Longoria at 3b comparisons

7-Luke Scott/dh: 3 hr and 7 rbi in his last 2 games back from shoulder injury

8-Nolan Reimold/lf: top 6 prospect for the O’s (3 hr the past 3 games; 5hr in 53 ab’s)

9-Cesar Izturis/ss: Bleh. Sorry.

Their rotation consists of (for the most part): Jeremy Guthrie; Koji Uehera; Rich Hill; and then a sundry of guys. Their pitching prospects (that rate from B to B-) are David Hernandez; Troy Patton; Chris Tilman; Brian Matusz; Jake Arrieta; Brandon Erbe; and Zach Britton.

So the question is, what should/can they do? Honestly the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays should be great for years to come with their payroll availability, players, and rotations (minus payroll for the Rays of course). This year (although only 6 games outs), they probably don’t have a chance. Not without a solid rotation or bullpen. They have the third worst ERA in all of baseball.

I think they have some pieces other teams should be interested in that are more than expendable: Felix Pie/of, Ty Wigginton/if, and Gregg Zaun/c. This first tier probably won’t yield many good players in return. The next tier consists of Aubrey Huff/1b, Jeremy Guthrie/sp and maybe Melvin Mora/3b. They have 7 pitching prospects that are generally rated b- or better.

Aubrey Huff + Jeremy Guthrie to maybe the Mets could work out. The Mets should be looking for a 1b/of replacement for Carlos Delgado and an additional SP that can be more consistent than Oliver Perez, Livan Hernandez, Tim Redding, and Jon Niese. I think Huff + Guthrie can net the Orioles a group of Tim Redding (a MLB starter); Jon Niese(sp) or Brad Holt (sp); Reese Havens or Wilmer Flores (ss); Joe Kunz(rp); and Jefrey Marte(3b) or Ike Davis(1b). This deal provides them a young sp for Guthrie plus a needed relief arm along with someone who can at least pitch for them now (Redding). In addition, it provides the Orioles with a 3b and ss for when Mora and Izturis are done/not worth it. As a Mets fan, I think it’s a bit much, but I’m attempting to be realistic. I’d rather the Mets go for Nick Johnson/Nationals for cheap and keep Daniel Murphy in LF. Honestly, I just want the Mets to get another Ace and forget about everything else – especially if the Phillies end up landing another SP.

Unless the Orioles want to trade Wieters+ to Boston, since they would love the Catcher, for Clay Buchholz + Michael Bowden – if the Red Sox or Orioles would even do that, obviously, Wieters should be untouchable. A deal like this, however, may make them a contender this year or next. The Red Sox rotation is probably deep enough: Beckett; Lester; Dicek; Penny; Smoltz; Wakefield; Masterson to maintain pace. A rotation of Guthrie; Ueherea; Buchholz; Bowden; Hill + Prospects looks pretty good.

So in my fantasy land, if I was the Orioles GM, I would perform the following trades:

In about 2-3 years, the team could then potentially compete for the AL East or at least the Wild Card. Else, at least the Orioles should enjoy watching their only 4 current bright spots for years to come (Roberts; Jones; Markakis; Wieters) with hopeful pitching prospects.

Hopefully you read one of my last posts regarding Johan Santana as the NL MVP for 2009 (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/baseball-news/mets-rotation-johan-santanamvp-trade-needed/). Basically it gave Johan Santana’s stats up to that point and iterated the need for a starting pitcher via trade.

In Santana’s 1 loss, he had a line of 7 innings; 3 hits; 2 runs (BOTH UNEARNED); 1 walk; and 13 strikeouts. Unfortunately, he went up against Josh Johnson/FLA. Last night he went up against Chan Ho Park/PHL (horrendous). Nauseatingly, Park went 6 innings; 1 hit; 2 walks; 1 HBP; and 5 strikeouts. Santana 1-Up’ed him (not in hits) going 7 innings; 2 hits; 3 walks; and 10 strikeouts.

Johan Santana is now 4-1 with a .91 ERA and a .91 WHIP. He’s got 54 K’s in 39.2 IP. He’s 2nd in the NL in wins; 1st in strikeouts; 2nd in WHIP; and 1st in ERA.

Prior to last night’s game he was giving up 1.1 runs a game and was only getting 2.2 runs a game from his offense. Now he’s given up only .91 runs a game (not even a run a game!) and in last night’s win, he got less than half his 2.2 runs a game support. The Mets really need to start provding him with some runs. No matter how much I stress that statement, it will still be the understatement of the world.

Johan Santana is still undefeated against the Phillies, the Mets new and beyond obvious, nemesis. He is now 3-0 lifetime against the Phillies in 7 career starts with a 2.44 ERA – phenomenal.

Johan Santana now has 31% of the Mets wins on the season. With complete concerns and inconsistency from Mike Pelfrey, Livan Hernandez, Oliver Perez, and John Maine (pitched solid other than bb’s in his past 2 starts), Johan Santana is infinitely important. I understand that the CY Young is the award to receive for a pitcher, and it epitomizes how great of a season a starter had, however, the MVP is how fantastic a player is and helps his team. There’s no doubt in my mind that Johan Santana at this point is the NL MVP and should be by season’s end. Of course the obvious competition is Albert Pujols/1b-STL. He is absolutely amazing: .364avg-28r-11hr-31rbi-4sb-.467obp-.747slg-1.215ops. According to ESPN, he’s on pace for 167r-66hr-185rbi-24sb. These stats are sensational. He’s the best hitter in the MLB. And if those stolen bases keep up he’ll be by far the best fantasy player (even with out them he will be). If you’re willing to trade him for needed roster slots, you better get a top notch player at each position you need: I’m talking Youkilis/1b; Hamels/sp; McCann/c. And then you can provide an extraneous SP & C back (just a wee-bit of fantasy talk).

Honestly, it’s up in the air, and Albert Pujols (#1 overall on ESPN Player Rater) is so utterly valuabe to the Cardinals. They have other hitters performing right now though – Ryan Ludwick/of; Chris Duncan/of; and Yadier Molina/c. They also have 3 starting pitchers performing well: Joel Pineiro; Kyle Lohse; and of course Mets’ horror Adam Wainwright. I’ve explained before in my last post. The Mets have solid offense: Reyes-Murphy-Beltran-Delgado-Wright, but they only have one great starter: Johan Santana (#5 overall on ESPN Player Rater) – http://games.espn.go.com/flb/playerrater?

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

NL East Preview/Projection

*The NL East is the only division that can attempt to match the AL East with a lineup of…

Jose Reyes (ss-NYM)-With the epitome of range at SS and speed & OBP now at the top of the lineup

(120-17-68-60-295)

Chase Utley (2b-PHL)-The patience to be the perfect #2 hitter but the greatness to bat anywhere

(115-30-110-13-296)

Hanley Ramirez (lf-FLA)-Talent to bat leadoff or third & now he has Bonaficio and Maybin to drive in

(116-33-106-29-303)

Ryan Howard (1b-PHL)-HR & RBI leader of the MLB last year and again this year with a better AVG

(96-45-135-1-275)

David Wright (3b-NYM)-Has Reyes & Murphy in front and Beltran & Delgado behind; Got to love his line

(112-31-122-20-305)

Carlos Beltran (cf-NYM)-Batting 5^th will hurt his runs but gold glove CF with power & speed combo

(92-26-115-22-279)

Brian McCann (c-ATL)-Great line at Catcher; Another year under his belt and less weight above his belt

(68-24-94-3-298)

Jimmy Rollins (dh-PHL)-Rather Reyes at SS & Hanley in LF, but I’ll take Rollins at DH against the AL East

(119-19-75-39-278)

Jeff Francoeur (rf-ATL)-Gun for an arm and a rebound year for our last OF spot

(77-22-90-3-269)

….and a rotation of:

Johan Santana (NYM)-18 straight starts without a loss and A NEW BULLPEN – 20+ wins?

(20-2.85-1.15-209)

Cole Hamels (PHL)-Same fastball/changeup repertoire that BAFFLES hitters; Health issues?

(16-3.19-1.09-194)

Derek Lowe (ATL)-Durable. That’s all I have to say, but with all his groundouts, he would probably be effective even with Colorado, or Texas.

(14-3.75-1.25-140)

Ricky Nolasco (FLA)-Still underrated? Doubt it, but he’ll be almost as good this year.

(14-3.84-1.21-171)

Josh Johnson (FLA)-Better k-rate than Nolasco with Worse WHIP, but stud if healthy.

(14-3.65-1.33-175)

…and a solid bullpen of Brad Lidge(38sv), Francisco Rodriguez(42sv), JJ Putz(6sv), Mike Gonzalez(30sv), Matt Lindstrom(23sv), Joel Hanrahan(25sv) and let us not forget about ambidextrous Billy Wagner pitching with determination and for another contract later in the year.

*Breaking down the NL East by position and using a sample rank system, I came up with the following (as objectively as possible):

c: McCann(atl-5) – Really no other C in the NL East can compare

1b: Ryan Howard(phl-5pts); Carlos Delgado(nym-4pts); Jorge Cantu(fla-3pts); Adam Dunn(was-3pts); Casey Kotchman(atl-2pts) - Howard is the clear favorite; A somewhat offensive bounce-back from Kotchman is in place; Delgado, Cantu, and Dunn should all be solid again; Cantu is definitely still underrated with Bonifacio, Maybin sometimes, and Hanley Ramirez in front of him.

2b: Chase Utley(phl-5pts);Dan Uggla(fla-3pts);Kelly Johnson(atl-2pts); Luis Castillo(nym-1pt) – Castillo can be an effective 2b still at the 8-spot in the Mets lineup; Kelly Johnson can go 85-17-75-9-287 with maturity and confidence. Obviously, the Nationals have a 2^nd baseman in Anderson Hernandez/Ronnie Belliard – I just don’t think they’re worth writing about.

3b: David Wright(nym-5pts); Chipper Jones(atl-4pts); Ryan Zimmerman(was-3pts) Emilio Bonifacio (fla-3pts) – Chipper does deserve 5 points along with Wright if he could just stay healthy enough; If Bonifacio sticks to leadoff he can be a runs and sb stud; and Zimmerman should have a 85-20-85-5-285 line. His defense is fantastic and he has potential for 85-25-95-5-290. Pedro Feliz isn’t worth ranking albeit solid defense.

ss: Hanley Ramirez(fla-5pts); Jose Reyes(nym-4pts); Jimmy Rollins (phl-4pts); Yunel Escobar(atl-2pts) – I wanted to give 5 points to both Rollins and Reyes as well, but It’s true that Hanley is in an offensive class all by himself since he’ll have lots of rbi opportunities this year; I personally think Reyes can belt 19 home runs this year, but 16hr + 60sb is beautiful with a stellar .293-.297 avg.

lf: Raul Ibanez(tilde over the n)(phl-5pts); Daniel Murphy(nym-4pts); Matt Diaz(atl-3pts); Josh Willingham (was-2pts) – I love Daniel Murphy batting 2^nd in the Mets lineup. I think a very healthy 90-17-75-7-286 is very possible; Ibanez will be stellar there in the Phillies Lineup; Matt Diaz with playing time can be very good. Along with Brian McCann, he slimmed down a bit.

cf: Carlos Beltran(nym-5pts); Shane Victorino(phl-4pts); Cameron Maybin(fla-3pts); Lastings Milledge(was-2 pts); Jordan Schaeffer (atl-2pts) – Jordan Schaeffer is young and good. He’s already got 2 hr this year. He could switch with Kelly Johnson/Yunel Escobar for the top of the lineup if slow starts occur for either of the 2 or when Chipper sits (which will be enough) and Omar Infante is in the lineup. I think he can be good for 17hr-15sb. Maybin should bat 2^nd but may find himself at the bottom of the lineup enough to hurt. His lineup spot should have the following breakdown: 50% batting 8^th, 35% batting 2^nd; and 15% batting lead-off. A line of 85-15-65-25-269 seems great for where he went in drafts; Like I said prior, Beltran will lose out on runs and protection batting 5^th, but he should bat 4^th enough against lefties when Delgado bats 5^th.

rf: Jeff Francoeur(atl-5pts); Jayson Werth(phl-4pts); Jeremy Hermida(fla-2pts); Elijah Dukes-Austin Kearns(was-2pts); Church-Sheffield(nym-2pts) – Hermida was regarded very highly just a few years ago, and the rbi opportunities are there. He could get time batting 2^nd as well. I actually like him for a line of 75-18-75-6-260; Werth should be very good when healthy since right field is his. I see 24hr-15sb due to injury concern; Platoons and split-time between the Mets and Nationals right field situations should yield above average numbers. The difference between them and Francoeur however is obviously not nearly as great between say Chase Utley at 2b and Ronnie Belliard at 2b so I think they deserve 2 pts to Francoeur’s 5 pts.

sp1: Johan Santana(nym-5pts); Cole Hamels(phl-5pts); Derek Lowe(atl-4pts); Ricky Nolasco(fla-4pts)

sp2: Josh Johnson(fla-5pts); Javier Vazquez(atl-3pts); Brett Myers(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez (nym-3pts) – To me, Josh Johnson is clearly the best #2 starter here with the other 3 teams having fairly similar numbers at the #2 rotation spot. The thing with the Mets is I’m not sure who the #2 will be by year’s end – same for their number 3 and 4 starters, and I’m a Mets Fan; Brett Myers Could be good at times and a mess at others. I think he’s better than Moyer this year (even though Moyer may be ageless the way he pitches) so I’ll put him here and Moyer in the 3-whole.

sp3: Jair Jurjjens(atl-4pts); Jamie Moyer(phl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts); Volstad(fla-3pts)

sp4: Joe Blanton(phl-4pts); Kenshin Kawakami(atl-3pts); Maine/Pelfrey/Perez(nym-3pts) – I think Kawakami can be as effective as the teams’ other #4’s since no one has seen him.

sp5/Minor League P call-ups: Tommy Hanson(atl-4pts); Jordan Zimmerman(was-3pts); Carlos Carrasco(phl-3pts); Jon Niese(nym-1pts) – the Phillies, Nat’s, and especially the Braves have a future Ace or #2 in the whole, while the Mets, to me have a future #4. I think the Phillies will need Carrasco quicker than the Mets need Niese or Braves need Hanson, but Hanson is the best among the new wave of NL East Starters. Jordan Zimmerman could and should put up better than league average numbers in his first season.

P.S. Livan Hernandez will be horrendous for the Mets. Hopefully they sign Pedro Martinez or Jon Niese and Tim Redding can be effective enough. However, I do see a deadline SP deal for the Mets, which comes later in the post.

closer: Brad Lidge(phl-5pts); Krod(nym-5pts); Mike Gonzalez(atl-3pts); Matt Lindstrom(fla-2pts); Joel Hanrahan(was-2pts)-Krod and Lidge will be great again. Gonzalez is underrated and can save 35 games without Rafael Soriano getting a chance. Tommy Hanson could get some opportunities if both Gonzalez and Soriano are unhealthy, but I think they’ll keep him as a SP as he sores to the Majors. Lindstrom can be very good with his 100mph fast ball and slider so long as he stays healthy. Per pitch, he was the hardest thrower in the majors last year, and let’s not forget about Jon Broxton/LAD or Joel Zumaya/DET.

setup: JJ Putz(nym-5pts); Rafael Soriano(atl-2pts) – If Krod goes down, the Mets should still be OK because of JJ Putz - just OK. JC Romero of PHL could have been here if he didn’t get suspended for substance abuse, but hey thanks for helping the Phillies win the World Series and thanks for playing in the World Baseball Classic. Horrendousness.

Figure 1.0: Results

Point-Breakdown:

*Obviously, this is a very basic statistical way (almost a weight system) of ranking the NL East, but still feasible. Those not ranked, still received 1 pt for the contingent positions. The above system ranks each team as follows: Phillies (53pts) Mets (51pts) Braves (48pts) Marlins (38pts) and of course lastly, the Nationals (25pts). So here, the Phillies rank 1^st. However, there are definitely contingencies this year, such as how the Braves play against the Phillies. They were 4-14 against the Phillies last year. The Braves rotation with Lowe, Vazquez, Kawakami, and Hanson later on in the season, will be much much better, and their offense should pick up quite a bit as well. Most Importantly – The Mets. They had the 3^rd most blown saves last season with 29 (Both the Cardinals and Mariners had 31). The additions by subtractions and additions by great additions/call-ups (Krod, Putz, Sean Green, Brian Stokes, Bobby Parnell) should subtract at least 15 of those 29 blown saves – and probably many more!!! All three referenced NL East teams need to watch out for the Marlins, but I don’t think they have the bullpen and rotation depth to compete for 162 games in the 2^nd best division in the Major Leagues for 2009.

Mets Trade Rumors:

*Lastly, there will always be trade rumors throughout the season, and at the deadline. It may be more intense this year than last due to the economy, and some non-competing teams may be very willing to rid of their expensive talent. I think the Mets will be big players in a sundry of discussions – mainly with the Blue Jays, Mariners, and potentially the Padres. I think Erik Bedard (sp) along with Jose Lopez (2b), Roy Halladay (sp), as well as Jake Peavy(sp) would be fantastic additions after Johan Santana in the Mets Rotation. Another interesting difference this year, can be the Mets POTENTIAL willingness to trade Fernando Martinez, the Mets top OF prospect since they found a stud in Daniel Murphy. I think an offer like Fernando Martinez(of), Jon Niese(sp), and either a Reese Haven(ss) or Brad Holt(p) + Nick Evans (of) could potentially help us land a Roy Halladay or Erik Bedard. If we can land Jose Lopez for 2b along with Erik Bedard, I don’t see how the Mets wouldn’t easily win the NL East.

Mets Roster Additions:

*I think Sheffield was actually a good right-handed bat of the bench for the New York Mets, and

can be a great platoon with Ryan Church (left-handed). Livan Hernandez/sp just won’t be effective anymore, and the Mets should attempt to woo Pedro Martinez for 1 year at 2.5 million.

*2009 NL East Projections: (Honestly I think the Phillies and Braves are Interchangeable)

1- New York Mets (91-71)

2- Philadelphia Phillies (88-74) – WC

3- Atlanta Braves (87-75)

4- Florida Marlins (85-77)

5- Washington Nationals (63-99)

*Very Early 2009 MLB Playoffs Projections:

Mets vs. Dodgers

Phillies vs. Cubs

NL Championship: Mets vs. Cubs

WS Championship: Mets vs. Red Sox

WS Champions: Red Sox

AL Championship: Boston vs. Yankees

Red Sox vs. Angels

Yankees (WC) vs. Twins

Did You Know:

Did you know in college, Mike Lieberthal had a Homerun Cycle – He hit a grand slam, a 3-run homerun, a 2-run homerun, and a solo shot.  I read this on the back on his 1991 Topps Rookie Card! Amazing!!!

Did you know – The founder of this Site, Jeff Gross’, Favorite player was [LAD/TEX/ANA/TOT/CHC/SEA/SAN/FLA Pitcher] Ismael Valdez. Fantastic.

Also Fantasy-eers – Don’t forget Brandon Inge/c-3b on the Tigers is eligible at CATCHER! But make sure you have Pujol’s avg on the team, b/c Inge will hurt that badly!

RIP Nick Adenhart. Best wishes to the Angels (no corny joke), his friends, and most importantly, his family.

Hello All,

I have been answering emails al ot lately, I have to tell you we have some passionate visitors!

This question came up 3 times, so I’ll post it here.

Will the Phillies Repeat in 2009? In your opinion of course…

Well I love answering reader questions! So let’s go!

As a Mets fan, my answer is NO! Ok, Ok just kidding. Let’s have a fair talk here.

Repeat? Not in my opinion!

The Phillies were definately a surprise in 2008, they had the fight and the edge that brought them through all the way to the end of a very long and tough season. The Mets faltered as usual, and
there you had it, the Phillies were the champs. They phought the tough phight and won (Phillies plug haha).

This season will be very different though. Even as a Mets fan, I feel the champ will come out of the AL this year. I do not feel the Phillies will win the East again, but may sneak is as the wild card.
The talent it still there, and the heart as well, but I simply dont see a repeat coming.

Again, I would go into more details, but I want to leave the floor open to you, the reader, and you the wonderful authors here at MajorLeagueBlogging.com.

So…Let’s hear it!

Call me crazy, call me a pessimist, call me what you want. . . . plenty of other people did when in mid-November my Phillies conversations turned from, “I still can’t believe Utley made that play” to “How the heck are they going so survive arbitration and still field a full roster.”  Maybe it’s just my nauture, maybe I’ve watched too many Rocky movies, but I believe that a champion becomes, and stays, a champion by never becoming comfortable and always looking to improve. Ironically, sitting here in March, I find myself wondering if my beloved Phils may have taken this notion to heart just a little too much.  

The offseason began with Pat Gillick stepping-down from the GM position. This was pretty much expected, yet still upsetting.  Seemingly over night, Ruben Amaro Jr. was promoted from within the organization to take over the GM duties.  Again, a move that surprised no one.  Amaro Jr. has virtually no experience, but the trust of many in the organization.

Waiting for Amaro, was a pretty large “to do” list, however he got to work with vigor saying his goals were to improve the pitching staff, and find a right-handed OF bat to protect Ryan Howard since all 3 of our starting OF were at the end of their contracts.  Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer,  Ryan Franklin, and Brad Lidge were all free agents, or arbitration eligible.  In summary, 4 of our 8 starting position players, 3 of our starters, our closer, and our 7th inning relief pitcher were all in question for next year.  Amaro did a nice job avoiding arbitration with Hamels, Blanton, Vic, Werth, and ultimately Howard.  Lidge was resigned early, as was Moyer in time.  Burrell was never offered a contract, although there are two sides to that story, and Raul Ibanez was signed for 2 yrs 22 million to take his place.  Chan Ho Park was signed to compete with 3 emerging prospects, Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, and Carlos Carassco, for the 5th starter’s spot, which Kendrick and Happ filled with moderate success in ‘08. Ronnie Paulino and Marcus Giles filled out our offseason signings, although their spots on the Major League roster are still in question.  

All-in-all not bad right? Most of our line-up remains intact, Ibanez is a proven run producer, and our staff is young (minus Jamie Moyer, who apparently owns a plot of land that contains the fountain of youth). Before you too contents, lets rewind to beginning of the offseason. Our goals: 1) improve the pitching staff.  The absolute best improvement we may have accomplished would be taking a young promising starter, who we’ve deveolped as a organization, and replacing him with Chan Ho Park, who is, well Chan Ho Park.  Not only is it not a significant upgrade in performance, but what does that say to these kids who we drafted and put our trust in last year?  I didn’t expect CC Sabathia, or Jake Peavy, but Derek Lowe would look pretty good in red pin stripes.  2) Find a right handed OF to protect ryan howard. I don’t know if the Phillies knew this but they had just that in Pat Burrell. Anyway, they decided to sign the left-handed hitting, 36 yr old Ibanez to fill this need. Anyone that follows baseball knows Ibanez can drive in runs, but that was in Kansas City, where he was the only source of offense in the lineup.  Hitting 5th behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard (over 250 combined RBI last year) has a way of sucking some RBI from the back of your baseball card.  Just ask Burrell.

No one can say the Phillies had a bad offseason, but when you compare the goals they set in place for themselves in Novemeber, and the moves they made all winter, fans are left scratching their heads. The worst part may not be that we didn’t meet these goals, sometimes its  just not possible, after all there is a business aspect to this sport. But when you think back to the fact that Amaro was given the job without even interviewing anyone else, Ibanez was signed before OF bats such as Manny, or Burrell himself, and that fact that Park was our only attempt to meet our #1 goal of the offseason in a market that was riddled with top and middle tier starters and relievers, it is easy to see that the opportunities were there. Were the Phillies so eager to do somthing that they didn’t really care what? So how do you defend a World Series Title? By never becoming satisfied or complacent? I don’t have the sure fire answer.  How do you give away a shot to repeat as champions? The Phillies may be writing that book all summer long.

First, I’d like to say hi to everyone in here. This site is a great idea, and with everyone’s help, it can turn into a great thing period.  My name is Steve, I’ll be posting on behalf of the Phillies this year.  I grew up in South Jersey (which anyone who has visited New Jersey knows, is quite different from North Jersey).  I had the great fortune of living about 10 minutes from the Phillies stadium, and have been going to games for as long as i can remember, although many games I’d like to forget. Ok, that will be my last “whoa is me, I’m a Philadelphia sports fan” comment.  One thing everyone needs to know is that I am NOT an Eagles fan, and I don’t recognize basketball as a sport, so please don’t lump me in with those Philly fans, and let’s stick to baseball I follow all 30 teams, and play a lot of fantasy baseball, so I’m always open to discuss anything. I’m going to run down a position primer for the Phils within the next week or so, and include a post on their offseason acquisitions (I cant help but laugh at that myself). From time to time I may offer up something fantasy related depending on how my leagues are going. Well enough about me, let’s get to some baseball! Good Luck to everyone this year, and remember, on opening day, everyone is in first place.