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So is this Manny Being Manny? Manny Ramirez is yet another PED user in the long line of “greats” to be caught up in this on going and depressing scandal…It’s not the news of it happening now that angers me, its knowing that this is definitely not the first time he has used these substances….much like the others being targetted, it is quite clear that this is more than likely not the first time they used PED’s…unless by some strange impulse they opted to try it at this stage of the game…even after all of the accusations taking place around baseball…

So the Dodgers will certainly have to step it up in his absence as well, he is not at all an easy bat to replace in the lineup. Who’s next? I hope against all hope each day that the name Albert Pujols is never, ever mentioned in these talks…that would be a tough pill to swallow…pun intended..

Well, let Manny be Manny off the field for a few months.

The LA Times has broken the story. Manny Ramirez will be suspended for PED’s for 50 games effective today. This looks to be true as the Dodgers have already made a move to promote outfielder Xaiver Paul from the minors. Manny would be set to return around July 4th from this suspension.

The obvious effect of this will be how will the Dodgers make up Manny’s production? He is batting .348 with a .492 on base percentage and  slugging .641. Manny is  a once in a generation type hitter, so there is no one way to make this up. Juan Pierre looks to benefit from this the most, as he will start everyday in left field for the Dodgers.

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

Every season including this, you could hop in to a league at this point and put together a decent fantasy team with free agents. Even guys on ESPN’s top dropped list (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/addeddropped) I enjoy: John Maine(sp), Ramon Hernandez(c), Jeff Francoeur(of), Justin Upton(of), Chien-Ming Wang(sp), Jarrod Saltalamacchia(c), Cameron Maybin(of), and even Khalil Greene at ss. Hopefully you read my last post: Fantasy Baseball: Free Agent Strategy (http://www.majorleagueblogging.com/author/dschwartz/). You could see who you could have picked up last year and potential break outs for this year that were drafted late or not at all. Below is a team put together by only 22/25 of ESPN’s most added list, meaning some leagues didn’t have these guys rostered at all until recently:

I was planning to look at ESPN’s top drop/add list, and I saw that Roto Authority – Fantasy Baseball (www.rotoauthority.com) attended to it as well (Fantastic Fantasy Baseball site by the way). So I’ll only talk about one player that even after his April 16th start, I’m somewhat surprised to see on ESPN’s most dropped list so fast: John Maine. I’ll talk about him since I’ll be attending mainly to the Mets with Major League Blogging Creator, Jeff Gross, as well as the NL East and Fantasy Baseball in general.

I don’t really see how John Maine was previously, the 9^th most dropped player. Again considering he was drafted late as a 5^th/6^th starter on your team, in his first start he only gave up 2 hits and 1 walk with 5 k’s in 5 innings. Now I’m not saying he will stud it up, but he’ll have 140-160k’s in 160-180innings or so and his ERA should be in the 3.85-4.25 range. For a 6^th starter where you drafted him (or now can pick him up off waivers), I don’t see how he should be so high on ESPN’s top dropped list. I think with some run support, his K’s, and Wins should all be usable on your fantasy team (and his WHIP and ERA won’t really hurt you). I think the Mets will really depend on him with the inconsistency of Oliver Perez and health/youth issues of Mike Pelfrey – and oh yeah, the big question that is Livan Hernandez.

In 2008, John Maine had a line of 10w-4.18era-1.35whip-122k in only 140 innings. He had just as many strike outs as hits allowed by the way. Just to throw it out there I guess, Ricky Nolasco last year had 186k, but gave up 192hits in 212 innings. In 2007, John Maine had 15wins-3.91era-1.27whip-180k in 191 innings, and he only gave up 168 hits. So to reiterate, I really don’t see why John Maine should be dropped so much. Also the new stadium looks as though it could help if Daniel Murphy and Ryan Church don’t add to their bloopers, because he does give up quite a few HR’s (Game 1: 2 hits = 2 homerun). A matter of fact, now that I think of it, when I watch John Maine, he looks to me as the Jack Cust of Pitching. He gives up a homerun, a walk, or strikes a batter out.

John Maine (2009): With about 180 Innings, I see a line of 12wins-4.05era-1.32whip-155k.

Its been a boring few days for Dodger fans, not much happening other than the Hudson signing, so I thought I would take this time to talk about a league-wide problem, the use of performance enhancing drugs.

I’m actually not going to get deep into the details of the steroid problem in baseball, as thats really been beaten to death.  I was doing some research online to acutally back an arguement I was making on Yahoo Answers, and I found one of the best articles I’d ever seen written about steroids and PEDs.  In this article (linked at the end) an amateur cyclist decides to find out for himself how much PEDs really improve performance in athletes.  This guy actually goes to a doctor who puts him on a regimin of PEDs and he outlines exactly how much they really helped him.  It’s a rather amazing article to read and really gives you insight as to what these drugs actually do.  For example, I’ve heard many a times that steroids can’t help you hit a baseball, they only help you hit a baseball farther, but I never knew before that HGH (one of the major drugs in the BALCO scandal) actually improves eyesight in many, which could actually help you hit a baseball.

This is a fairly long read, but I think its something that most people really should read, as it really does give insight as to how easy it is (or was, as this was from 2003) to legally get PEDs and how much they actually help.  Enjoy.

http://outside.away.com/outside/bodywork/200311/200311_drug_test_1.html

So, there really hasn’t been any real news to talk of as of late, so may as well talk a little about the biggest question most Dodger fans have about this offseason, what’s going to happen with Manny.

As reported on dodgers.com, Colletti has been talking with Manny more frequently and for longer durations as of late.  There’s still no word as to if we’re getting any closer to signing him, though I really think we’ll be signing him soon.

As most probably know, Manny has already been offered 2 deals, 2 years $45 mil and 1 year $25 mil and he rejected both.  He reportedly wants a 4 year deal in the range of A-Roid money, like $27 mil a year.  The problem with giving him that kind of money is his age.  As great of a player as Manny may be, its unlikely he’ll be playing at this level in 4 years, and no team really wants to give him $30+ million during a season he’s not still at an elite level.

Manny seemed to be counting on interest from other teams, like the Yankees, to cause a bidding war for his services, but that never happened.  At this point, I think Manny knows he isn’t going to get his 4 year deal.  At the moment its almost like a game of chicken, who’s more desperate, Colletti to get Manny back or Manny to get a contract so he isn’t sitting out one of the few productive years he has left.  I think Manny has more to lose than the Dodgers do, so I think he’ll soon cave and take the deal.  Manny has never been known as a workhorse, and, in my opinion, he’s using these contract discussions to get out of the harder spring workouts, and will sign in time for spring training games to start.

First of all, before I get into today’s topic, the deal reported yesterday became official today, as the Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson to a 1 year 3.4 million dollar deal.  Hudson, who made $6.2 last year, was looking for a deal in the $10 million range, but settled for a significant pay cut from last season.

Now, on to todays topic, the Dodger rotation.  I’ve heard a lot of talks about how the Dodgers may have the hitting this season (especially if we resign Manny) but with the losses of Lowe and Penny, our rotation would be significantly diminished.  While losing those 2 arms won’t help, but they mght not hurt us as much as most may think.

We’ll start with our new ace, well not necessarily new to us, but new to the “ace” role, Chad Billingsley.   This will be his first season as our #1 pitcher and the 24 year old righty is coming off his best season and I think he’ll only get better.  He does have some control problems at times, but he strikes out more than a batter per inning.  The main concern for Billingsley this season will be how well he’s healed from the broken leg he suffered in the offseason.  He reported no pain when throwing off the mound recently, and hopefully he’s at 100% by opening day.

Our likely #2 will be Hiroki Kuroda.  Last year was his “rookie” year in the majors after playing in Japan and it took him a little bit to get used to MLB hitting, but he closed the season out well, which bodes well for this season.  During the months of August and September he posted ERAs of 2.29 and 2.96, and had two good starts in the playoffs, both wins, including 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Cubs.  The only knocks on him are his age, 33, and the fact that he usually only goes about 6 innings, but I look for him to be a solid #2.

Our #3 is likely to be Clayton Kershaw.  While his numbers don’t necessarily stand out in any way, he’s only 20 years old, and will be turning 21 before the season.  If you compare him to other young lefties, his rookie year was very similar to Tim Lincecum’s rookie year, and we all know Lincecum won the Cy in his 2nd season.  The thing about Kershaw is that he was 3 years younger than Lincecum in his rookie season, and could quite possibly have more upside.  Now, I’m not guarenteeing a Cy for Kershaw this season, but seeing a jump like we saw with Lincecum last season wouldn’t surprise me, especially from a guy who’s been compared to Sandy Koufax while in the minors.  Expect huge things from Kershaw.

1-3 we’re solid, but #4 we’ll turn to vet Randy Wolf.  I don’t really know what to expect from Wolf this season.  He’s an average pitcher who can hopefully eat up some innings and hopefully post a .500 record for us.  He did close out 2008 on fire, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA in September, and who knows, maybe he figured something out that he can use this season, but I’m just hoping for decent outings.

Finally, our #5 will have a lot of competition.  Leading the way will most likley be Jason Schmidt, if he’s healthy.  Would be nice if he was, seeing as we’ve been paying him top dollar for 6 starts over 2 seasons.  If he comes back healthy and to the form he was in SF, he could be the best #5 in the league.  If not, we might be stuck with Eric Milton or Jeff Weaver.  Milton is coming off Tommy John surgery and wasn’t really good the last 3 seasons he played.  Weaver hasn’t been much better, but the last time he was a Dodger in 2005, he was actually respectable. 

Overall, we actually may have a better rotation than we did last year, when you consider that we didn’t really have Penny long last year anyway, so we”re really only losing Lowe, and improvements to Billingsley, Kuroda, and Kershaw may make up for the loss.  We definitely have question marks in the 4 and 5, but we have 4, maybe 5 pitchers competing for 2 spots and hopefully they’ll step up.  I’m really looking forward to this season and seeing what our young pitchers can do, especially Kershaw.

 The Dodgers are apparently now in talks with free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson.  Hudson has reportedly lowered his asking price from $10 million since, with todays market, there are no teams willing to pay that for him. 

Colletti told dodgers.com that he wasn’t necessarily looking to replace Blake DeWitt, but more or less looking at options.  The article on dodgers.com said if Manny doesn’t sign we could always use Hudson at second, move DeWitt to third, and Casey Blake to left. 

Personally, I would like the signing, as Hudson is a proven second baseman, a 2 time gold glove, and he can hit.  Last year Hudson hit .305 while only playing in 107 games due to an injury, but if you look at his stats, his average has gotten better every year.  I don’t know how much I would like the musical chairs of players, especially since, if Manny doesn’t sign, we have a perfectly healthy Juan Pierre to play left, and while he doesn’t add the power that even Blake has, he has batting average and speed.

Ideally, we could sign both Hudson and Manny and have an even better offense than last year.  I’d like to see Hudson as an everyday 2B and let DeWitt and Blake fight it out for 3B/utility IF.  Granted, there would be many options that Torre could look into with this signing, and would be nice to add another bat to our lineup.

While we all look forward to this upcoming season after an NL West title and a postseason victory, this year’s Dodger team is going to look a little different than we’ve come to expect over the past few seasons.

First of all, we’ve lost 2 of our starters in Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, as well as mid-season acquisition Greg Maddux who finally hung up his cleats.  Our bullpen also took a hit losing the likes of Chan Ho Park, Takashi Saito, Scott Proctor.  We also released CF Andruw Jones and long time 2B Jeff Kent retired.  So, there are a lot of people we’re used to seeing in Dodger Blue who won’t be here anymore.

We also do have several who we may or may not be losing, as they’re still free agents.  The biggest one would be Manny Ramirez, who we’ve made several unsuccessful offers to, but I really think will be wearing Dodger Blue by the beginning of the season.  Some others who I’m not so sure about are Nomar Garciaparra, Joe Beimel, and Mark Sweeney.  All three of them kinda suffer from the “odd-man out” though I know a lot of fans who wouldn’t mind seeing Nomar back, and Beimel could help out our bullpen, but not really sure if Ned plans to even negotiate with them.

With all those departures, we have some new people coming in, mostly pitchers.  Recent signings of ex-Dodger Jeff Weaver along with Shawn Estes, Randy Wolf, Eric Milton and Claudio Vargas will be competing for roster spots.  Wolf will likely be our 4th starter and Estes will likely try to compete for the 5th spot or maybe a bullpen spot along with Vargas.  Weaver was signed to a minor league deal along with Milton, but I’d expect both to be in LA at some point in the season.  In addition to career starters, we’ve also signed ex-Dodger reliever Guillermo Mota to sure up the pen.  So we have a lot of pitching to compete for the open slots and I’m excited to see how they all perform.  As for our offense, it will be the same lineup we’ve been used to (assuming Manny re-signs) but we have added a few reserves to help out in backup catcher Brad Ausmus and utility infielders Mark Loretta and Juan Castro. 

So, there have been a lot of moves that the Dodgers have made, and it’s going to be an interesting season, hopefully ending with another NL West crown. 

Hello Dodger fans, and welcome to majorleagueblogging, I’ll be covering your Los Angeles Dodgers this season. 

I thought I would start out by telling you a little about myself.  My name is Jimmy and I’ve been a Dodgers fan ever since I can remember watching baseball.  I’m from CT, so not a local but I never miss a game on mlbtv and keep up with all the team news religiously. 

In the upcoming weeks, I’ll try to post some info on our outlook for the upcoming season and try to highlight some of our key players and transactions.  If there are any topics you specifically would like me to cover, feel free to let me know.