» Houston Astros News

Notes: What I tend to do heavily in my rankings, unlike all the other rankings, is group players together based on their position/projection/potential. For example, in round 8/bubble I grouped together 4 cl (Brad Lidge and Jon Broxton as well as Matt Capps and Heath Bell). Broxton has had a great start and Lidge has had a rough one, but by season’s end the stats should be about the same. I also grouped together 6 sp (Rich Harden, Joba Chamberlain, Adam Wainwright, Yovani Gallardo, Josh Johnson, and Erik Bedard). These are all great sp’s with ?’s though – inning/injury concerns. Of course, I have 3+ weeks of the season now to include in my rankings (upping Zach Greinke and Josh Johnson on my list, but honestly guys like Carlos Quentin and Matt Kemp I already thought should be ranked where I have them), but here, I posted my rankings followed by a notes section [In the notes section,  I’ve bolded the players that are in the referenced round]. Within the rankings, I bolded some guys I like and ranked higher than most others, and italicized others I didn’t like as much or ranked lower than others or have since been hurt.

Top 12/Round 1:

In 2009, I think Miguel Cabrera could break 37 homers and 127rbis he had last season. He’s already off to a hot start, batting .431 up to this point. With an increase in runs from 85 to about 100 and to me – a sure increase in batting average from .292 to about .315, I think Miguel Cabrera could be ranked above David Wright this year. Similarly, I see Ryan Braun breaking 40hr and 15sb. If his avg raises passed .300, and I think it will, he too, could surpass Wright because of the HR total, but obviously I would take Wright over both Miggy and Braun b/c of 3b eligibility – Is Miggy 3b eligible in your league though??? Chase Utley to me at 2b just beats out Ian Kinsler (2b) because of the RBI total. He’s healthy, and he’s already got 4hr and 2sb with 12r, 12rbi, and a .362avg. One guy who is absolutely on fire, and probably will stay that way if healthy for a full season, is 2b (position scarcity) Ian Kinsler. His line is already: 15r-5hr-16rbi-7sb-.381avg. Most projections call for about 25sb, but I didn’t see why he can’t break 30 (now 35) with a full season – 118r-26hr-84rbi-34sb-295avg anyone??? Like I said, I’d honestly rank him above Utley if it wasn’t for Utley’s rbis’s – and for that matter at 2b he could also be above Wright/3b, Miguel Cabrera/1b, and Ryan Bruan/of by year’s end. Kinsler had 23 and 26sb respectively in the past 2 seasons in 483ab’s and 518ab’s. With health, and in that lineup, he should approach 550ab’s, score a ton of runs, and should have a decent amount of rbi opportunities. Evan Longoria jumps into the first round again because of position scarcity (3b) over Josh Hamilton (of) and Mark Teixeira (1b). He’s already on fire batting 10r-5hr-16rbi-1sb-.386avg.

Round 2/Players 13-24:

There may be some surprises in round 2. Justin Morneau is so clutch, I just can’t rank him any lower. I think 27-30hr and 120rbi with 95r and 300+ avg is justified where I have him. Alex Rodriguez will miss time, but there’s no question he could still go 100-32-105-12-300. There is only 2 more sure thing 3b’s in Kevin Youkilis and Aramis Ramirez in the next 4 rounds (Chone Figgins, just there for speed and Chipper Jones is so injury prone I think he should be in round 7). The New-B’s here are Carlos Quentin (of) (who is already studding it up, and I have no idea why most projections were so low on him maybe batting avg. He’s got 7hr already); Matt Kemp (of) (don’t love his lineup spot, but still a great lineup with a lot more rbi opp’s and he’s such a great power-speed combo – already at 13r-3hr-14rbi-4sb-.362); Nick Markakis (of) (who would be first round material if he gets more than my projected 23-25hr and 9-12sb. He should hit 100-105r and 105-110rbi with a .307-.315avg.

Round 3/Players 25-36:

Tim Lincecum/Manny Ramirez/Dustin Pedroia/ BJ Upton are all still 2^nd round material to me depending on if you like drafting one ace very early in Lincecum or stolen bases in Upton or position scarcity in Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis somehow remains underrated (especially because he’s 3b eligible). He contributes greatly to 4 categories: about 100-105r; 27-30hr; 109-115rbi; 3sb-4sb; .305-.315avg. I just don’t love Matt Holliday outside of Coors and in Oakland, but his 95/25/95/15 potential is still 2^nd round material if that’s his line by season’s end. Aramis Ramirez could be ranked right before Kevin Youkilis or maybe early into round 4, but at 3b, I still love him in the Cubbies lineup.

Round 4/Players 37-48:

Ichiro Suzuki is sometimes ranked in the top 24, and his avg, runs, sb’s make him worth it there, but his lack of hr and rbi keep him down here for me. I’m usually doing fine with sb providers by now (say Kinsler/2b-27sb, Longoria/3b-11sb, Kemp/of-30sb) or (Wright/3b-18sb, Soriano/of-25sb, and Markakis/of-10sb) – that’s 68sb and 53sb respectively. If you end up with like: Howard/1b-1sb and Santana/sp, and Crawford (of) or Roberts (2b) are already off the board, than Ichiro can get bumped up if you think you’ll need the sb. I’d rather someone else and go for Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury in round 5 though. To me, Brian Roberts is Ichiro Suzuki at 2b, so Roberts is much more valuable to me. Some people still think Carl Crawford can approach 20hr in a season, and depending on his lineup spot he could knock in 85rbi, but in the 2-whole it looks like he should have a line of 90runs;10-12hr;70-75rbi;30-40sb;283-287avg, which will still justify this rank or even a little higher. I think by now he can be considered injury prone. I honestly think he has top third round potential, but every guy I have in round 3 just knocks him down to round 4. Brandon Phillips is great at 2b, and he’s a solid 4 stat contributor with a nice young lineup, but his average keeps him in round 4 to me. I like Cole Hamels and Brandon Webb here so long as they’re healthy because they symbolize the end of the 4 category top-notch fantasy aces (w,era,whip,k). Josh Beckett, Roy Oswalt, and Chad Billingsley are great, but Beckett’s era could be somewhat high as can Billingsley’s whip, and Oswalt looks to be slowing down a bit and striking out less batters although he was fantastic in the 2^nd half of last year. I like the 3 catchers: Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, and Russell Martin here. McCann’s eye is a worry and Martin’s starting off somewhat slow, but by season’s end I think they’ll be worth it here. If the latter 2 slip into round 5, fine.

Round 5/Players 49-60:

I usually have top power guys (David Ortiz/Carlos Pena), top speed guys (Rafael Furcal/Shane Victorino/Jacoby Ellsbury), or power-speed combos (Nate McLouth/Bobby Abreu/Corey Hart/ Carlos Granderson) as well as position scarcity (Geovany Soto/c; Rafael Furcal/ss; Alexei Ramirez/2b-ss) all in round 5. Soto is just too good to let drop for a catcher. I could see him being a 4^th rounder next year with another consistent year – similar to where McCann, Martin, and a healthy Victor Martinez are. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Matt Wieters all go in round 4 next year. 12 players-6 catchers-1 round…Mark it (round 5 the latest).

Round 6/Players 61-72:

I love Joey Votto for his 7-10 sb and .290-300avg in addition to 24-28hr and 90-100rbi. I wouldn’t mind going with Robinson Cano here either at 2b in the Yankees lineup either. I love Cano slipping to round 7/8 because I think he can perform to the line of 90-95r;18-20hr;90-95rbi;4-5sb;.292-.302avg. Here, I like the 4 closers too: Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan, Joakim Soria, and Francisco Rodriguez – all great 3 category pitchers with a good amount of k’s for relievers as well, however, personally I wait to draft closers and may look to draft 3 in a row, come round 13/14. Chad Billingsley is already showing why I have him ranked here with 4 wins and a 26:9 k:bb ratio, and a Dodger team that should be just as good for years to come. [Dodgers Lineup: Furcal-Hudson-Manny-Ethier-Loney-Kemp-Martin-Blake] – wow! If Billingsley keeps the whip down, he’ll jump to round 4/5 prior to Beckett and Oswalt. I don’t love Chone Figgins at 3b or Dan Uggla’s avg, but you can’t go wrong with Figgins’ sb’s and Uggla at 2b. Ryan Ludwick (already at 5hr and 16rbi, 1sb, and batting .370), after a great year last year, was way too underrated in this year’s drafts – the power and rbi’s should be there.

Round 7/Players 73-84:

Chipper Jones gets drafted much earlier, and at 3b, he’s so good, but he just doesn’t stay healthy enough for me to rank him higher. We should all know about Chris Davis’ potential by now (and flaws). Carlos Delgado could be Delgado of 2008-2^nd half or 2008-1^st half. I think he’ll go 33-35hr; 110-115rbi. Aubrey Huff was great again last year, and at 3b & 1b, I like him a lot with Brian Roberts, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis in front of him. I like Garret Atkins enough to rank him in round 6 at 3b, but to me everyone above him as a little more potential/better power/better position scarcity ala Michael Young (ss;3b). Adam Dunn, Joe Mauer (c), and Andre Ethier are all solid options here as well. Dunn looks to be on a mission; I love Ethier batting clean-up in that Dodger’s lineup (and he should get you some sb’s with a nice avg.) I like James Shields and Zack Greinke (round 8 ) b/c each will have both good era’s and whip’s, where as the next few sp’s could have a high whip or era.

Round 8/9; Players 85-104:

Here, as you can see, I favor sp’s. I actually get my first ace in round 7 or 8 and then attempt to draft 3 or 4 in a row. Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir can have fairly high whips, while AJ Burnett can have a fairly high ERA, and as good as the next wave of SP’s are (Harden; Joba; Wainwright; EBedard; JJohnson; Gallardo), they all have question marks in some way (inning concerns, injury concerns, or not enough of a sample size). Derek Lee is in a solid lineup, but hit only 22 and 20 hr in the past 2 years. Without pop, and slowing down in sb as well, I can see him falling out of the top 9 rounds next year.

As I said in my notes section, I group players based on positioning/potential/and your statistical needs. I probably won’t rank the next 15 rounds only because I over/under-rate some players based on position, stats, and potential, and then I’d give away all my strategy.Feel free to question/criticize/comment.

Houston lost the 4 game series against the Reds 3-1. I went to the ballpark for Sundays game after the 7-0 win Saturday, but was disappointed by a late innings bullpen collapse and a 4-2 loss. Tejada had two hits that went to the wall, but they were both just singles. Not sure what’s the deal there, he seemed to admire one of them and the other one he just didn’t run hard. Maybe his age is finally catching up with him, he is 2 years older this year…One of those long singles scored Bourn from first, but Geary blew the lead on a bad throw to first in the 7th inning, allowing 2 runs to score. The Reds tacked on 2 more, and Houston was only able to get 1 back in the bottom of the 9th. It was a shame that the error caused Paulion to get a no decision in a very well pitched game. He think he struck out 6 in 6 innings.

Yesterday, the Reds rallied again off Geary, when Votto hit a 2 run single in late innings. They won that game 4-3, spoiling a good outing by Mike Hampton. Hampton has looked pretty good so far this season and is pitching better than I had expected.

The injury to Brian Moehler may be a blessing in disguise if Paulino continues to pitch as well as he did Sunday. I was never high on Moehler to begin with, but everytime a starter goes down you have to be concerned. It looks like Paulino will take over his spot and if he continues to pitch well, Moehler will not be missed, at least by this fan.

One positive over the 4 game series is that Berkman and Lee hit back to back long balls. The offense needs to come alive quickly or Houston is going to fall further and further out of the pitcher. I know the season is still young, but Houston has too many pitching questions to answer and needs the offense to produced while it sorts that out.

Tonight’s game doesn’t look very promising, as Manny and the red hot Dodgers come into Minute Maid. We are throwing Russ Ortiz against Clayton Kershaw too, so all signs point to a win by the Dodgers.

For those interested in fantasy baseball, I just posted updates on the progress of my teams on my blog http://myfantasysports.blogspot.com/ through the first 2 weeks of the season.

Well, I am pleasantly shocked, but I did get half my prediction correct. Wandy Rodriguez pitched an absolute gem, striking out 10 in 7 scoreless innings of 2 hit ball. The Astros offense finally came alive and lit up Aaron Harang to the tune of 5 runs on 10 hits through 6 innings. The Astros picked up two runs early, with RBI singles by Pence and Blum in the first inning, then tacked on 1 more on a Carlos Lee double in the 5th. Lee went 3-3 and seems to be heating up from his rather cold start. Blum delivered again in the 7th, smacking a two run double. Pudge also joined the slug fest with a 2 run double of his own in the same inning.

The bullpen of Chris Sampson and Jeff Fulchino finished the game strong, with the only baserunner in the last 2 innings coming off a Sampson walk.

Berkman went hitless, but the offense still put up gaudy numbers, which is both a good and bad sign. It’s nice that they can win when the Puma has an off day, but we can’t afford for him to have too many of those…

Wandy Rodriguez looks incredible. He pitched amazing at home last year and was really lit up at times on the road, but if he can manage to get everything firing on all cylinders at Oswalt snaps out of his early season funk, the Astros are going to be better off than I, and probably most people,. imagined.

This team never ceases to amaze.

I’m going to the game this afternoon, where Paulino squares off against Edinson Volquez, so I will have a fun and personal report to share later.

What a bad time to get super busy at work! Lots to blog about, especially Lance Berkman.

Berkman has a biceps injury that has kept him out of Spring Training all week. He hit off a tee a few days ago, and took some batting practice yesterday, so that is a good sign. Lance was also able to do some light throwing. Berkman is done for the spring, and I don’t think he will start the first few games of the season. The Astros need to be very careful with this injury, if we lose Berkman our season is done before it even began. I’d rather see a patient appraochand not risk anything.

In other news, Astros traded a player to be named later for the Reds Jeff Keppinger. Keppinger can play 2B, SS, and 3B, so he is another utility infield player for the Astros. This move makes sense since Aaron Boone is out for the season following successful open heart surgery, but I can’t help but note that Ty Wigginton would have been the perfect solution and if we kept him we wouldn’t be in such a dire position power wise.

Finally, with the start of the season so close, check out my fantasy baseball blog. I’m going through final rosters of my teams before the big day!

Sorry Astro fans, it’s been a hectic week. Life and work seems to have caught up to me and I haven’t had a chance to sit down and talk about my Stros! And boy, do I have a lot to cover!

The biggest headline out of the Astro camp is Miguel Tejada’s probation. He was sentenced to a year of probation for lying about his involvement with steroids. He was in position of HGH as an Oakland Atheletic, but claims he never used it and threw it away. Prosecutors have no evidence to contradict this, so that is why he is just receiving probation. He’ll still be the Astros starting SS, and in the Spring Training game after the hearing, he belted a home run!

Another important headline: Aaron Boone went under the knife for open heart surgery. There have been no complications reported, which is always fantastic news. Boone will miss this season and his career might be done.

Pudge Rodriguez fits into the lineup nicely and is having a great Spring, batting .333 for 2 home runs. Just the addition the Astros needed!

The Astros have rattled off 7 ST wins in a row. I knew they were a second half team, but I didn’t know that translated to Spring Training too! Their current Grapefruit League record is 8-16.

That’s it for important news snipets I think. Astros are coming together offensively well, but still need pitching help. For anyone interested in fantasy baseball, I run http://myfantasysports.blogspot.com/. It’s a look at the 8 drafts I’ve participated in and how those teams have been adjusted as Opening Day approaches. I just finished posting results for an NL Only draft I did last night, so check that out if you are curious to see how it shakes down!

The Astros pitching staff 2 hit the Nationals in a 1-0 Grapefruit League win. The lack of offense is still frightening, but new addition Ivan (Pudge) Rodriguez picked up his first Spring Training hit in his first at bat, finishing 1-3. The Astros are certainly a better team with the veteran catcher behind home plate.

Not much to report besides boring Spring Training games, I can’t wait for Opening Day!

Aaron Boone will undergo open heart surgery and will miss the entire season.  Doctors think he will be able to play baseball again, but Boone isn’t sure if he wants to in the future.

This leaves the Astros pretty much with Geoff Blum at 3B, unless they promote a rookie from triple A. This is another situation where having Ty Wigginton in the organization would be a huge plus, but I’ve already blogged about that.

Obviously, Astro fans wish him a safe and compplication free surgery, but it is odd that he knew he had a heart problem from college and has taken this long to fix it, and certainly puts the team in a bind at the hot corner.

In other news, Hunter Pence left a Spring Training game with a bruised knee, but thinks the injury isn’t serious. It is nice to see him hustle and try to slide at the plate, but it is only Spring Training and we can’t afford to lose anymore of the team!

Well, after Puerto Rico is done with the WBC, Ivan Rodriguez  will be headed to Houston, and after passing his physical, he will be the starting catcher for the Astros!

This is great news, Pudge is a good defensive catcher, which makes our pitching staff better, and he has some power in his bat, contrary to last year’s drop off with the Yankees.

He has hit 9 for 15 in the WBC with 2 homeruns and was named most valuable player out of the pool Puerto Rico was in.

This is great news for the Astros and is certainly a boost to the team. Pudge will make 1.5 million bucks, with another 1.5 million in incentives for 1 year.

Let’s hope USA knocks Puerto Rico out of the tournament tonight so Pudge can get the ball rolling on becoming an Astro.

Well, it looks like I spoke too soon! Earlier I blogged about how great a fit Ivan Rodriguez would have been in Houston, but that Houston had publicly said there was no interest in signing him.

That’s all changed, however, as the AP is now reporting that the Astros and Pudge are close to coming to terms on a 1 year deal worth around $1.5 million. Check out my previous post here on why Rodriguez is such a great fit and just the type of catcher the Astros need. A one year deal gives super prospect Jason Castro another year to refine his skills in the minors and develop into the super star he can become.

Florida still has some interest, but it looks like Ivan is going to be an Astro for 2009!

Nothing is official yet….

Not much going on in Astro land it seems, so I thought I would highlight some key players and how they are doing in Spring Training

Michael Bourn has 5 stolen bases through 37 at bats…very impressive, but he is only batting .189! Seems every time he gets on he is good for a stolen base, he just doesn’t get base often enough, and that worries me a lot. I’ve griped about Bourn before though.

Hunter Pence is showing shades of his brilliant rookie season of 2007. He is one of only six Astros to hit a home run in ST (YIKES!!), and the only one to hit two. Throw in a stolen base and a .270 average through 37 at bats and you have a very fine young player. Hunter Pence is going to be exciting again this year. He does have 8 strikeouts though, which is a little bothersome

Lance Berkman is being Lance Berkman. More walks than strikeouts and a .316 average in 19 at bats. Nothing to worry about her folks, the Puma is in good form.

There is something to worry about in Carlos Lee however. The all star slugger is hitting on .067. He also only hit .143 in the WBC. Carlos needs to turn it around fast or the Astros are in for an even tougher 2009.

Miguel Tejada had a home run in both ST and the WBC, and is batting .300 in spring games. Miggy looks primed for a much better 2009 campaign and can greatly help this Houston lineup.

And as a final note, if anyone plays Fantasy Baseball be sure to check out my blog http://myfantasysports.blogspot.com/. It isn’t your typical fantasy sports and news blog or my personal player projections, but rather a look at how I draft and manage teams throughout the season.