http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?id=3309092

Matthew Berry claimed 75% of his bold predictions for 2008 would come true…
 
…Unfortunately for him, he was correct on just 14.8%
 
*9 right
 
*52 wrong
 
Most notably “off” predictions:
 
Troy Glaus ends the season with more home runs and RBIs than Albert Pujols
 
Nick Swisher hits 35 home runs and gets more than 120 RBIs
 
Erik Bedard finishes the season as the #1 overall fantasy pitcher
 
Justin Verlander finishes as the second best fantasy pitcher in the American League
 
Chad Billingsley finishes the year with an ERA over 4.00 and is considered one of the fantasy busts of the season
 
Manny Ramirez hits fewer than 30
 
Joe Borowski keeps his closer gig all season long and saves 40-plus games again
 
Richie Sexson bounces back
 
Dan Haren finishes the year with an ERA worse than 4.00
 
Chris Denorfia goes 20 and 10
 
WTF…..???…
 
Miguel Tejada hits 30 home runs and has a resurgence in Houston
 
Ryan Garko hits .300 and 30 home runs
 
Mark Prior wins double digit games this year and strikes out more than 150
 
Pedro Feliz hits 30 home runs
 
Shawn Hill pitches more than 150 innings with a sub 3.30 ERA and wins double-digit games
 
Yorvit Torrealba hits 15 home runs
 
Conclusion: Maybe Mr. Berry should be replaced with Mr. NuttySicilian? Or perhaps a blind, Malaysian autistic dog (just kidding, too harsh!).

Hey Tin Man, what are you looking at?

I think it is time for people to acknowledge how overrated Mr. Ripken is in the sense of humanity as well as athleticism.

Being a product of the commonly perceived pre-steroid era, Ripken’s performance has slipped under the radar while his impeccable durability ultimately suggests the assistance from PEDs.

Ripken is known for his reserved nature with the likelihood for skipping autograph sessions and now this?  http://bases.newsvine.com/_news/2009/05/15/2821077-cal-ripken-takes-the-money-and-runs?category=spor  Simply absurd.

The former Orioles slugger is pompous and self-righteous in his actions to write and sell a text referencing the human condition.  Maybe he should stick to a Johnny Damon-like novel/theme, such as ”Idiot”.

Case closed.

1)Pablo Sandoval goes down as one of the biggest steals of drafts

2)Cueto is better than Volquez in Yahoo rank

3)The Royals win the AL Central

4)Extra Bold –> Either Ryan Zimmerman or Alex Gordon is a top 10 candidate in MVP voting

5)Ian Stewart finishes the year with over a .285 average and 20+ homeruns

6)Francisco Cordero and Brian Fuentes have less than 25 saves combined

7)Phil Hughes has 10+ wins for the Yanks

8 )Wandy Rodriguez finishes the season with more Ks than Roy Oswalt

9)The Mets finish 4th in the NL East

10)Barry Zito sucks, again

11)Jonathan Papelbon finishes the season out of the Top 5 closers

12)The Rays make it to the playoffs

13)Jay Bruce belts 30-35 homeruns

14)Matthew Berry finishes in the bottom 4 of his experts league

15)Kevin Slowey finishes the year in the top 75 in Yahoo rank

16)Rafael Furcal beats Jimmy Rollins in at least 2 categories

17)Ryan Braun hits 45 homeruns if he plays in at least 150 games

18)ROY winners are Jordan Zimmermann and Bret Anderson or Matt Wieters

19)Andy Sonnanstine is the third best pitcher on the Rays according to Yahoo rank

20)The economy is worse come fantasy playoff time but the Bank of America stock rebounds and is valued at 10.00+

C- Pablo Sandoval

Many wonder if his power stroke displayed in the spring will carry over to the regular season.  With catcher eligibility in many leagues and hitting in the heart of the order, I’m a firm believer in his power and think he could well exceed his projections.

1B- Joey Votto

With an OPS of about 1.000 in the second half of 2008, he shows all capabilities of making the elite jump.  His plate discipline looks promising and he has a fulfilling power/speed combo.  Expect a .300 Avg, 24-27 homeruns, and 10 steals.

2B- Ian Stewart

This guy brings a plethora of fantasy upside that screams Chase Utley from 2005.  He can do a little bit of everything and is currently projected to get 400-500 ABs.  He’ll soon be eligible at three different positions and there are just too many possibilities that could make him an everyday player between Helton’s injury-plagued history, an imminent Atkins trade, or Barmes/Smith underperforming.  It wouldn’t take an enormous amount of luck for the 23 year old to supply similar value from the 2B spot to B. Phillips or A. Ramirez.

3B- Alex Gordon

He lowered his strikeout total in 2008 and showed a power increase in the second half.  If his offseason regiment successfully assists him in figuring out southpaws and boosting his fly ball rate, we’re looking at a ceiling of 28-30 homeruns with a .280 average.

SS- Stephen Drew

A second half comparable to Hanley Ramirez where he had a .950 OPS makes him a rarity at middle infield.  Batting third for the Dbacks in 2009, expect solid numbers across the board with a few steals this time.

OF- Corey Hart

He’s almost a lock for another 20/20 season, with 30/30 still in reach.  Hart is slugging at about a .800 clip this spring, which statistician John Dewan would say is a useful future indicator.

OF- Nelson Cruz

Right now he is projected to bat cleanup for the Rangers against southpaws and 5th against righties.  Either spot is incredibly conducive for RBIs in Texas.  After seeing him continue his September dominance in the spring, expect a 27/15 type of year for Cruz.

OF- Adam Jones

With a full major league season under his belt, this year we’ll see his real power.  I’d say 20/20 is feasible for Jones.

SP- Kevin Slowey

He dominates with control, walking just 24 batters over 160.1 innings in 2008.  His strikeout rate won’t kill you, and it’s way up this spring.  He could be the ace of the staff come July.

SP- Johnny Cueto

Even Edinson Volquez said Cueto was better.  Cueto’s major league K rate and minor league peripherals are in support of this.

SP- Clayton Kershaw

Month by month his walk rate improved last year while fanning 

almost a batter per inning.  He’s still only 21 and very raw but could still make the leap this year.

SP- Jonathan Sanchez

Being known for his ability to make hitters miss, a Kazmir-like breakout awaits him if he lowers his walk total this year or the next.  Guess what, his K/BB ratio in the spring is 15:2.

RP- Frank Francisco

If he stays healthy he’ll get plenty of strikeouts and saves, while he has no remote threats that could seize the job.

RP- Chris Ray

Expect him to take Sherrill’s job by the end of April.  Sherrill has even stated publicly that he doesn’t mind Ray closing after his less than dominant spring.  And one more thing, Ray’s velocity in the spring is reportedly higher than it was pre-surgery.

Yesterday was my annual competitive fantasy league draft I had with a few college buddies of mine. 

League Setup: 12 Teams, Head to Head, Weekly Updated

Settings: C, 1B , 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, U, SP, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, RP, P, P, Bench, Bench, Bench, Bench

Categories: HR, RBIs, Runs, SBs, BB, OBP, AVG, SLG, 3B, Hits, Wins, Losses, ERA, WHIP, Ks, K/9, QS, Svs, Sv Opps, IP

It’s important to note these categories for the most part mirror the default 5X5 settings (adjusted for walks) and then duplicate them in a 10X10 format.  They’ve worked for a number of years and I’d recommend them for any league.  What’s good about this is the original weightings from the standard scoring scoring system are kept intact.

Here we go… I had Pick # 8

1) C. Utley 2B- It was a decision between Chase Utley and Ryan Braun that I lost sleep over the night before.  Positional scarcity was a major factor in my pick as well as Utley helping me across the boards.  I did not want to be stuck with two outfielders in the first 2 rounds as well if Berkman by chance didn’t fall to me (which he did not).                      

2) B. Upton OF- With a repaired shoulder Upton has 25/40 upside in 2009.  Whether batting first, third, or fourth he will be a solid producer in every category.  97 walks last year looks promising as well.

3) J. Morneau 1B- Morneau hit 30 jacks in 2 of his last three seasons and is a solid buy-low candidate.  I was happy he fell to me because I didn’t want more than one outfielder early, predicting I would be a recipient of bargains later in this draft.  At age 27, Morneau’s K/BB ratio dramatic improvement in 2008 coupled with laser eye surgery points to a big bounce back year.

4) R. Halladay SP- Being one of the consensus top 5 starting pitchers, Halladay brought really good value here in the mid 4th in a league where pitchers are overvalued.  Halladay’s injury qualms are behind him, and he has a WHIP that serves as a great foundation for a starting staff.  Having many high strikeout sleepers, it was important for me to establish ERA/WHIP early in the draft.

5) C. Davis 1B/3B- This was a no brainer after Chipper Jones went off the board two picks earlier.  Already having a solid OBP built up with my top 3, I can afford the swings and misses Davis will have this year.  With a full season in Texas, I project about 33 homeruns with a .275-.280 average and solid RBIs from this sleeper pick.

6) V. Guerrero OF- After considering him in the 4th round, all I have to say is wow.  His knees feel better in the spring and he remains a 27-30 homerun talent with great RBI potential in 150+ games.  Don’t forget he’s a career .323 hitter and I expect a good OBP from the matured slugger as well.

7) S. Drew SS- After the second tier of pitching went with John Lackey being taken two picks earlier it was time to further solidify my offense.  I realized teams 8 through 12 didn’t have a shortstop and I’m not a huge fan of Tulo or Jeter.  While taking Drew I knew a third tier pitcher would still be there in the 8th round.  It is notable that Drew slugged over .500 last year which is rare for a middle infielder.  I am fine with his baseline of about .282/17 jacks in 2009 but any continuation of last year’s second half dominance (.950 OPS) is just an added bonus.

8 ) C. Lee SP- Sharpened command, increased velocity, and a K/BB ratio of 5:1 doesn’t happen out of the blue.  I expect more homeruns per fly balls, but also about a 3.60 ERA and consistently solid numbers across the board.

9) C. Hart OF- I considered Hart, whose ADP is in the low 50’s, in the seventh round but got a steal in the ninth.  He’s young and still has 30/30 upside while it’s worth mentioning his .900+ slugging percentage in the spring.  In a young potent lineup I expect a higher OBP from Hart and assistance in eight out of ten categories.

10) J. Chamberlain SP/RP-  I was pleased to see Chamberlain available in the tenth round who has one of the highest talent ceilings in baseball.  He almost perfectly supplements my great WHIP core with his K/9 of well over 9.

11) R. Ibanez OF- One of my prized sleepers.  Ibanez is one of the most consistent producers in fantasy sports.  Never being in a great lineup and never playing in a hitter’s park or the National League are reasons why I love this guy.  His health and stability compliments my two somewhat risky outfielders.

12) M. Capps RP- I love this pick considering the top and middle tier closers went off the board in the six to ninth rounds.  Capps only walked five guys last year, has no risk of losing the job, and will further show why projected low win teams harvesting low save totals is a mythical idea.

13) D. Lowe SP- I was between Lowe and Harang at this pick.  He’s an ugly pick but is consistently a top 25-30 pitcher.  Expect about a 3.65 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP.

14) H. Bell RP- Being another underrated closer like Capps, Bell also has no real threat behind him.  30 saves with solid peripherals, thank you.

15) C. Carpenter SP- I consider myself to have perhaps the best No. 5 SP in the league with Carpenter, and so far he’s hurled 19 innings in the spring without yielding an earned run.  Carpenter is a top 20 pitcher when healthy.  With Chamberlain and Carpenter my starting staff shines with upside, supplementing what is arguably the best offense in the league.

16) W. Rodriguez SP- A great filler for my 6th SP is Wandy, whose home/road splits seem to be a thing of the past.  I’ll take his K/BB of 3 and K/9 of about 8 with positive three-year trends ala Paul Maholm.

17) J. Zimmerman SP- This was probably my first significant reach of the draft, but how can you ignore a stud who’s fanning major league hitters at a rate of about 1.5 per IP in the spring.  I expect him to be delegated to the No. 4 or 5 role out of the gate this year, and without any Triple-A experience a Verlander-like rookie year is not out of reach.

18) B. Molina C- Alike Derek Lowe, he is consistently underrated.  Batting in the middle of the order he will approach .280/17 and 95 RBIs again this year.

19) C. Ray RP- Sherrill’s ERA approached 8 in the second half of 2008 and his struggles and bad peripherals have followed him into the spring.  It will be a matter of weeks before Ray regains the closer role from an out of shape George Sherrill.

20) J. Sanchez SP- With a K per 9 hovering around 9, he was a steal for me here.  Already solidifying my WHIP and ERA with Halladay, Lee, Lowe, and Carpenter, I can afford the worst-case scenario hit Sanchez will give my staff.  Not to mention he is my No. 8 SP and is projected by several sources to have a Kazmir-like breakout either this year or the next.  The spring and the WBC points to an improvement in control while it is only a matter of time before he reduces his big league walk total.

21) M. Bradley OF- Another steal that shouldn’t have been here even if it wasn’t an OBP league.  His injury-plagued nature is less relevant being my fifth outfielder.

22) C. Villanueva SP/RP- Hoffman experienced a giant spike in homeruns allowed in 2008 and his age scares me.  He is no longer in Petco, and is suffering from a lingering oblique strain in the spring.  Villanueva is my favorite to take the job.

So what do you guys think?

Not So Fast Evan!

Evan Longoria was one of the best hitting prospects to come up in 2008, making a big splash in limited time for Tampa Bay.  He also rose to the occasion in October, doing serious clutch damage against numerous playoff pitchers.  In just 122 games during the regular season Longoria put up the following impressive numbers:

Fantasy Spin:  Great power potential from a less deep 3B position in ‘09 is the reasoning behind fantasy managers’ selection of Longoria in the middle of the 2nd round in drafts.  His exact ADP is 21 which is well ahead of Aramis Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis, Chipper Jones, and Chris Davis.  Longoria, at 23 years of age, is a great young hitter who is not expected to peak till another 4-5 years.  He’s always racked up his fair share of strikeouts with more than one K in every five at bats in the minor leagues.  This signifies he will not hit for a great average in 2009, so you are pretty much banking on 35+ homeruns when drafting him as early as he’s going.  Longoria further demonstrates one-dimensional abilities as his steal numbers is 2008 were flukish; he had only 8 in 758 minor league at bats. 

In addition, it was recently reported by Rotoworld.com that BJ Upton will be leading off for the Rays in ‘09.  This presents less RBI opportunites for Longoria as he will no longer hit behind the plate discipline guru Upton, who walked 97 times last year.  This does not do anything to boost Longoria’s value and should be the final straw bouncing him to the end of the 2nd or early 3rd round.

Who not to waste your 13th round pick on…

Hope you enjoyed your glory days, Gavin

Gavin Floyd, a former Phillies 4th overall pick in 2001, came over in the Freddy Garcia trade in 2006.  Floyd put together a great season in 2008 with a final stat line comprised of 17-8/3.84/1.26/145Ks.  

When estimating true player ability and upside, it is crucial to look at the minor league numbers as Floyd posted a minor league K/9 mark of 7.14 and a mediocre K/BB rate of 2.13.  His first full major league season in 2008 is impressive on paper, but with a closer look it is frighteningly inconsistent.  In the first half he showed control struggles while giving up a walk per 2.38 innings, however, he managed to post a 3.63 ERA and 1.20 WHIP due to surrendering just 87 hits in 111.2 innings.  This was mainly due to luck as Floyd’s BABIP(batting average on balls in play) of .268 during the course of ‘08 was much lower than the league average of .290.  In the second half, Floyd demonstrated greatly superior control allowing only one walk per 4.12 innings.  Although impressive, this control shown was vastly inconsistent from his minor league numbers and probably will not be matched in 2009.  And despite this pinpoint control, Floyd yielded a 4.09 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in the half. 

Fantasy Spin: The terrific 2008 season for Gavin Floyd was a fluke.  He experienced a lower than normal BABIP that aided his stats in the first half and then demonstrated uncharacteristic control in the latter half.  In 2009, expect him to post something similar to a 4.20 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 13 Wins, and 155 K’s.  In summation, don’t waste a mid round pick on Floyd because you can find equal value on the waiver wire.

Welcome Back to the First Round Mr. Utley!

Progress ahead of schedule was all fantasy managers needed to know

Not in every generation do we witness a second baseman that fits the mold of a career .900+ OPS hitter with speed in a strong lineup.  The combination makes Utley a hot commodity in fantasy sports, and worthy of an early to middle first round pick if his health wasn’t in question.  Now, the original prognosis of his hip injury was 4-6 months, which could have set Utley as far back as late May.  However, optimism for Phillies’ fans was released by ESPN last Friday as his recovery is reportedly well ahead of schedule: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3919778.  This means the pain-free Utley could likely start contributing to fantasy teams as early as April, thus sky rocketing his value. 

Fantasy Spin: As of now Chase Utley is on average the 16th player selected in drafts according to MDC data.  With the news, fantasy managers are now inclined to take Utley in the first round again and as the first second baseman off the boards.  I’ll even go as far to say he should be picked in the No. 9 spot, after the M. Cab/Braun/Sizemore bunch.  This is a move that can be justified by assessing the risk of the likely less productive first round picks in Kinsler, Hamilton, Howard, and Rollins.  Kinsler hasn’t played in more than 130 games in any of the last three seasons.  Hamilton is risky because he’s only had one monster season and his durability is still in question.  Howard’s K:BB rate has risen steadily in the last three years and it isn’t a sure-thing that he’ll soon return to hitting in the .270 range.  Rollins, the safest of the group, has posted inconsistent power numbers over the past four years in 12, 25, 30, and 11 homeruns.

There are just too many problems regarding Garrett Atkins that dwarf his fantasy value out of the top ten rounds

• A worsened Colorado lineup now without Matt Holliday will lead to less RBI opportunities
• An imminent trade making room for Ian Stewart would take him out of a great hitter’s situation in Coors
• Let’s take a look at his prior three-year trend:

• First, check out his declining plate discipline as his K:BB ratio has gone from about 1.0 to a pitiful 2.5 in the three-year span.
• Also, take a look at his drop in power as his slugging percentage has plummeted steadily by 100+ points over the last three years.
• While holding less significance, his speed has decreased since 2006 as well.

At age 29, Atkins’ only real upside is his health.  Yes, he holds multiple position eligibility, but it’s first base!  Wait ten rounds and grab Carlos Guillen with a late round pick as he’ll most likely provide equal value.

Hello, I would like to introduce myself as your new primary Fantasy Baseball Expert, Phil Orlando.  I have been participating in fantasy baseball leagues dating back to 1998, and I have a rich passion as well as a great analytical sense for the game.  I’m 24 years old and I work in the finance sector in Boston, MA.  I can be reached at philforlando@gmail.com for those who have questions/concerns.  I will begin blogging this week.