The Yankees are motoring. They are half a game out of first place, and have been tearing through their opposition.  (I’ll ignore for now the fact that they have yet to show they can beat Boston or Tampa Bay.)

So all Yankee fans should be happy, right?  Well, almost.  But our joy must be tempered, because this Yankee team has a major flaw – the bullpen.  The Yankee pen is in disarray.

At season’s start, it appeared otherwise.  Based upon 2008, the bullpen looked to be a major strength.  Alas, it has not been so.  At this point chaos reigns, and the seventh and eighth inings bring terror to the hearts of all Yankee fans.

The original bullpen looked strong.  Led by the greatest closer in the history of baseball, Mariano Rivera, the pen included Brian Bruney, Damaso Marte, and Jose Veras, all of whom sparkled in 2008.  Backing them up were three good looking youngsters with major league experience:  Phil Coke, Edgar Ramirez, and Jonathan Yabadaba (or whatever his name is).

Two months into the season, Bruney and Marte have disappeared into the vast abyss known as the Disabled List, while Ramirez and Yabadaba (or whatever his incomprehensible name is) have been exiled to the minors.  Only Coke and Veras remain behind Rivera, and Veras has been just awful.  Coke has been good when not called upon to pitch more than an inning, but all too often the Yankees’ mastermind, Joe Girardi, has left him in too long.  Mark Melancon, the supposed successor to Mo, was up briefly, but tanked and was sent back to Scranton.

The remaining bullpen now includes two long relievers, Alfredo Aceves and Brett Tomko; a starting pitcher who can’t crack the rotation, Chien Ming Wang; and an unproven kid, Dave Robertson.  Tomko is a retread who has done nothing.  Wang is a sinker ball pitcher, which is not what you want in the late innings, where strikeouts are essential.  Aceves has been effective in long relief but is unproven late in the game.  And Robertson has not shown the velocity necessary to be more than an inning eater.

So when the seventh inning rolls around, the Yankees are a thrill a minute.  The wrong kind of thrill.  Absent a return by Bruney, the emergence of Aceves as a late inning guy, or the belated arrival of Mark Melancon, there appears to be no easy solution for the Yankees’ bullpen woes.

Look for a mid season trade.  Without some help, the Yankees can’t match up against the Red Sox bullpen in the postseason.

I am about to nitpick.  The Yankees have won ten out of twelve, finishing a highly successful homestand within reach of first place.  No Yankee fan should be complaining.

But complain I will.  My sons tell me I am obsessed with Joe Girardi’s inadequacies, and that I should give it a rest, but I can’t help myself.  Today’s loss to the Phillies featured yet another example of Girardi’s incessant need to overmanage.

In order to appreciate what happened today, we must flashback to yesterday’s come from behind victory.  It was the ninth inning.  The Yankees were down by two, but Damon singled, and after Teixeira went out, Arod tied the game with a dramatic home run.

That brought up Cano.  Cano singled, and promptly stole second on Brad Lidge.  I emphasize that Cano stole on Lidge.  Chris Coste made a perfect throw to second, but Cano had gotten such a great jump on Lidge that Coste had no chance.  Melky followed with a single, and the Yanks went home happy.

Fast forward to the ninth inning of today’s game.  With the Yanks one run down, again Cano singled, but this time Girardi decided to show he was in control of the game.  He just had to make one more move, so he sent Ramiero Pena in to run for Cano.  Pena promptly stole second.  This time Carlos Ruiz was behind the plate, and Ruiz is a better catcher than Coste, but once again, it was the jump Pena got on Lidge that made the difference, the same jump Cano got the day before.  Melky then stroked his customary clutch hit, tying the game.

All this was well and good, but now Cano was out of the game, and the light hitting Pena was batting fifth behind Arod.  In the tenth inning, Jeter and Damon singled, and Teixeira hit into a double play, putting Jeter at third with two out and Arod up, to be followed not by Cano, but by Pena.  Well, that was a no brainer for Charlie Manuel.  He ordered Arod walked intentionally.  Pena then popped up, and the Phils went on to win the game in the 11th.

We will never know if Cano could have stolen that base in the ninth, or whether he would have brought in Jeter in the tenth, but he has good speed, and is a veteran currently batting over .300.  Pena is a weak hitting rookie.  Cano certainly would have had a better chance of winning the game in the tenth, but Girardi’s move in the ninth inning eliminated that possibility.

You can argue that Pena is faster than Cano, and that without Pena’s stolen base, the Yanks would have lost in nine.  But Cano is not exactly Jose Molina on the basepaths, and he had stolen successfully off Lidge the day before.  Maybe Joe Torre would have made the same move, but I doubt it.  Torre believed in letting his guys play; Girardi always has to make his managerial moves the key to the game.  In doing so, he once again made one move too many.

In the past, I have blamed Girardi for loses resulting from his overmanaging.  I can’t do so in this case.  But his action removing Cano once again demonstrates his fundamental insecurity, an insecurity that leads to his incessant meddling.  If he fouls up enough games, the Yanks may once again miss out on the playoffs.

Melky Cabrera stroked yet another game winning hit for the Yankees this afternoon, as they came from behind with three in the ninth to upend the World Champion Phillies.  Watching Melky celebrate, I recalled his checkered rise, and how much his career resembles that of another Yankee center fielder.

To review, Melky was force fed into the Yankee lineup in 2006 at age 21 when two thirds of the outfield suffered serious injury.  Melky had been considered a strong prospect, but his arrival was premature.  Notwithstanding that impediment, he batted .280 with 7 home runs, 50 rbis, and 12 stolen bases, and fielded his position.  He followed that performance by batting .273 with 8 home runs, 73 rbis, and 13 stolen bases in 2007.  By all appearances, he was nothing more than a light hitting, good fielding center fielder with limited upside.

Then in 2008 he tanked, hitting .249 with 8 home runs (most of them in April), and 37 rbis.  This Spring, he was decisively beaten out for the starting center field position by Brett Gardner.  His Yankee career appeared to be over.

But when Gardner struggled, Melky got another chance.  Now he is batting .317, he already has 5 home runs, and he has been incredibly clutch.  Once again, he looks like the center fielder of the future.  Is it possible Melky could become more than a role player?  Could we have underestimated his upside?

Perhaps.  Melky’s career pattern reminds me of another Yankee center fielder.  No, not Mickey Mantle.  And not Joe DiMaggio.

In 1991, the Yankees brought up another light hitting, smooth fielding twenty two year old center fielder.  In 85 games he batted .238 with 3 home runs.  The next year in 62 games he batted .280 with only 5 home runs.  Then in 1993 he slumped to .268 with 12 home runs and 68 rbis in 139 games.  In 1994 at age 25, he batted .289, but again had only 12 home runs with 57 rbis.  In short, he too looked like a light hitting, smooth fielding center fielder with limited upside.

It didn’t turn out that way.  That young center fielder’s name was Bernie Williams.  Bernie went on to become a .300 hitter, win a batting title, slug 20-30 home runs a year, and bat clean up on arguably the greatest team in baseball history, the 1998 Yankees.  Although he never became a “super star”, Bernie was one of the truly outstanding players of his era and a foundation piece for the last Yankee dynasty.

The point is, Melky’s career path bears an uncanny resemblance to Bernie’s.  Does that mean Melky will become an all time Yankee great?  Hard to say.  But before we dismiss Melky as a role player, we should remember that Bernie did not become a true star until he was 27.  Melky has shown substantial growth in 2009.  He just might have a higher ceiling than any of us thought.

We have been silent this week, partly because we were busy watching son #2 graduate from law school, but mostly because the Yanks were winning nine in a row, and we did not want to disturb the karma.

That streak came to an end tonight, as the Phils drubbed the Yankees 7-3.  A few observations on the past ten days are in order.

First, taking two out of three from Toronto pretty much burst the Blue Jay’s bubble.  After losing the Halladay game (everybody lose to Halladay), the Yanks showed the Blue Jays to be a paper tiger.  The Red Sox finished the job this week with a sweep against the floundering boys from north of the border.

Second, the Yankees showed real grit in their four comeback wins against the Twins.  Since their collapse in the 2004 playoffs, coming from behind has not been their strong suit.  Their performance against the Twins was heartening.

But third, the sweep of Baltimore means little.  Your local nursery school has a better pitching staff than the Orioles.  Anyone who doubts that proposition need only remember that Jeremy Guthrie is their ace, and Adam Eaton is part of their starting rotation.  Any staff that includes Adam Eaton has to be awful.

So the Yankee streak is not quite as impressive as Michael Kay would have you believe.  The team’s inherent weakness was demonstrated tonight. The Yankees have yet to show they can hit good pitching.  This evening they were totally shut down by Brett Myers.  Now Myers is a nice pitcher when he’s on, but nobody has ever accused him of being the second coming of Grover Cleveland Alexander.  Or even Dick Ruthven.  Yet the Yankees couldn’t do a thing with him until the 8th inning, after he had thrown a hundred pitches.

The Yankee offense still contains too many old bats, and too often old bats are slow bats.  All too frequently, those old bats have looked overmatched against real pitchers – a commodity the Jays, Twins and Orioles lack.  Until the Yankees show they can hit the hard throwers who populate the top teams, they cannot be considered a true title threat.

I am loathe to express optimism about such a flawed team led by an inadequate manager, but I must admit that the past week has been most promising.  There are reasons to hope that this season may not end in disappointment for the Yankees.  The positive signs are as follows.

1.  SABATHIA HAS ARRIVED

CC Sabathia has finally begun to pitch like CC Sabathia.  His last two starts have been dominant performances.  If Sabathia continues to pitch as he did against Toronto and Baltimore, the Yankees will have a true stopper.

2.  AROD HAS RETURNED.

He’s only hitting .150, but he has won two games with home runs (5/8 against Baltimore and 5/16 against Minnesota).  More importantly, since he came back, Mark “The Statue” Teixeira has batted .360.  His mere presence in the lineup creates an offensive threat that other teams cannot ignore.

3.  THE EMERGENCE OF MELKY

After a moribund 2008 and a terrible spring training, Melky Cabrera’s Yankee career appeared to be over.  But Brett Gardner’s early season failure gave Melky an unexpected second chance, and he has responded to the challenge.  He is batting over .300, and his clutch hit Friday night won an important game.  Bernie Williams took a few years to develop.  Could the same thing happen with Melky?

4.  THE INJURED ARE RECOVERING

Chien Ming Wang has pitched well in Florida and appears to have recovered the strength in his hip.  Jorge Posada and Xavier Nady are improving and may rejoin the team in early June.  Brian Bruney is due back the end of the week.  We may yet see the Yankee team we thought we had at the beginning of the seaon.

5.  HELP HAS COME FROM UNEXPECTED PLACES.

Francisco Cervelli has shown grit filling in for Posada and Molina.  He has been more than adequate on defense, and has exhibited unexpected offensive ability.  He has given the team a lift behind the plate.  During spring training Alfredo Aceves lost out to the numbers game in his quest to make the starting rotation.  Since being recalled, the twenty six year old veteran of the Mexican League has reinvented himself as an effective reliever.  Girardi would do well to consider Aceves as his eighth inning guy until Bruney returns.

None of the above guarantees the Yanks a playoff slot, but they are positive developments.  The Red Sox have been struggling, and now lead the Yankees by only a game.  The Rays have yet to show consistency, and may be suffering from withdrawal after their breakout season in 2008.

After a horrendous couple of weeks, the Yankees finally have reason to hope.

Tonight’s comeback victory marked three wins in a row for the Yankees.  Although this does not seem like much, its a nice change of pace for a team that has looked lost for the past few weeks. 

Ever since the Red Sox came back to beat the Yankees in the ninth off Rivera, the Yankees have looked like a team without hope and direction.  Furthermore, the big winter signings were not panning out: Teixiera was batting below .200 and Sabathia was getting knocked around.  The Yankees were in a funk. 

But the Yankees have put together three good wins in a row.  Sabathia dominated the Jays on Wednesday, Jeter and Matsui powered the Yankees to a comeback win yesterday, and tonight they score three runs in the ninth off Joe Nathan to win.  So it appears, for one night at least, that they are pulling themselves out of their funk. 

Peter Abaraham asked after today’s comeback win, “Is it the start of somethin?”  It may turn out to just be one good moment; but with the regulars coming back to the team, the new signings starting to come alive, and the Yankees seemingy out of their slump, the may Yankees become the team we all expected, or hoped, they would be in the spring.

While it is only May and there is still a lot of baseball to be played, almost every year an early balance of power tends to emerge in each division which establishes (1) who the real contenders are, (2) who the big stick is, and (3) which teams are likely to remain down-and-out for most of the season.  Obviously, the early balance of power does not set in stone how the division will look at the end of the season.  At the same time, it is an early indicator regarding who this year’s dominant teams will be.  (For instance, in 2005, the two best teams in the American League before the All-Star break were the Baltimore Orioles and the Chicago White Sox; the Orioles collapsed thereafter and finished next to last; the White Sox went on to win the World Series.) 

The balance of power in the AL East is still very much in question, though it is likely to be settled in the next 10 days.  So far, the surprise Toronto Blue Jays have played well and held their lead over the Red Sox.  But a review of the Blue Jays’ schedule shows that they’ve been dominating the AL West and AL Central, and that they haven’t played anyone in the AL East yet save the current worst team, Baltimore, who they swept.  The question is, are they for real?

The same question applies for the Yankees.  While there have been expectations, injuries, and disappointments, in the blunt words of the great football coach Bill Parcells: “You are what you are.”  After the losses to Tampa Bay last week, right now the Yankees are effectively 4^th in a division of 5 teams, ahead of only Baltimore.  Technically, the Yanks are 1 game ahead of Tampa Bay, too.  But Tampa Bay this week has 2 games against Baltimore, and 4 against Cleveland – both of whom are last place teams.  Expect Tampa Bay to pick up some ground and be over .500 by this time next week.  So the bottom line for the Yanks is, while they have the talent to be the best team, the competition in the AL East may be so fierce this year that the Yanks may not rise above 3^rd place in the division unless they seriously improve their game. 

Meanwhile, Boston has played well, is probably the best team right now, and is poised to take over 1^st place in the AL East, if it turns out that Toronto isn’t for real. 

Tonite the Blue Jays begin a critical 3-game series with the Yankees, then next Monday play three against the Red Sox in Fenway.  By winning one or both series, the Blue Jays can solidify themselves as a serious contender in the early balance of power.  (And if they do, the AL East will be a scary division to play in this summer.)  At the same time, if Toronto falls flat, Boston can surpass them and establish themselves as the team to beat in the AL East.  While these teams will all meet again in June, after next week inter-league play begins, and the balance of power may not shift again until after the All-Star break. 

The Yankees, needless to say, have an opportunity to show that they are a serious contender by beating Toronto.  With the Yanks’ three veteran pitchers starting during the series – Burnett, Pettite, and Sabathia – the time to reestablish themselves is now. 

Whatever happens, with Burnett pitching against Roy Halladay tonite, it should be an awesome matchup to kickoff a pivotal 10-day period. 

I can’t decide whether my older son has rocks in his head, or is just jerking my chain.  He cannot be serious when he defends Girardi.  The man cannot manage.

I will grant certain of his arguments.  The Yankees do not want to return to the managerial merry-go-round of the ’80s.  And certainly injuries have hurt the team.  Plus the bats of the older players may be slowing down, although you wouldn’t know it from Johnny Damon’s performance this week.

But once again I must point out a prime example of Girardi’s inadequacy.  This afternoon Joba Chamberlain took the mound for the second time this week.  On Tuesday against the Red Sox, he opened the game by giving up four straight hits, culminating in Jason Bay’s three run homer.  After that, he was unhittable, striking out twelve in less than six innings.

In the first inning today Joba put the first two men on, then gave up a three run home run to Aubrey Huff.  For the next six innings he shut out the high powered Oriole offense (the Orioles’ lowly placement in the standings is the result of terrible pitching, not bad hitting).

So far this year, hitters are batting .481 against Joba in the first inning, and .235 in the subsequent innings.  Sounds like Joba needs a longer warm up before the start of the game.

Whatever it is, the coaching staff should be able to diagnose and correct the problem.  So far they have failed to adequately address the issue.  If Joba was having good games and bad games, you could blame him.  For example, Saturday night’s disaster was the direct result of Philip Hughes’ inability to throw his curve ball for strikes.  That loss is on him.  But Joba consistently pitches well once he is out of the first inning.  The pattern presents a diagnosable problem, but nobody is finding a solution.

Maybe the blame for failing to correct this situation should fall on Dave Eiland, but Eiland is Girardi’s pitching coach.  Ultimately he is responsible for Eiland’s failure.

I find failures of this ilk less troubling than the sense of panic and defeatism that permeates this team.  But the Joba issue just highlights that Girardi is failing on multiple levels.  Like Ray Handley before him, Girardi has been consumed by the challenge of replacing a legend.  The Yankees need to move on without him.

The Girardi question is an interesting one.  While I don’t necessarily disagree with many of the Girardi blunders pointed out by my father in his blogs, the case for weathering the storm and keeping Girardi – at least until the end of the season – needs to be considered.

For starters, the Yankees have been without their two most productive players of the last 3 seasons: A-Rod and Chien-Ming Wang.  These guys, on paper at least, have been the Yankees’ best hitter and best starting pitcher, respectively.  (I say “on paper” ‘because, for my money, the two best Yankees players year-in and year-out since 1996 have been Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera).  Take the best pitcher and best hitter off of any other team for a month and see how that team does.  Would any one of them dominate the league in the manner in which the Yankees are unreasonably expected to do?  Probably not.  So Girardi – who already has a Manager of the Year award under his belt, and who managed to win 89 games last year despite all the injuries and the absence of the team’s best pitcher – deserves to be cut a little slack in that regard. 

Second, we don’t want to inaugurate another era of manager instability.  Remember the 1980s when the Yanks had a new manager every year – sometimes 2 or 3 in a single season?  It was chaos.  And it didn’t win any championships, not a one.  It wasn’t until we had 4 consecutive seasons of Buck Showalter (the then-longest uninterrupted tenure of any manager since the Steinbrenners took over the team in 1973) that the team started rebuilding and heading in a coherent direction.  It’s easy to forget those turbulent years after 12 seasons of Joe Torre.  But we clearly don’t want to go back to the chaos.  So yanking Girardi after only 1 year and 1 month at the helm is premature, would set a disturbing precedent for anyone else who takes over the job (the message being: “Win immediately or you’re fired”), and, quite frankly, smacks of the same kind of panic-driven micromanagement that Girardi has often been accused of. 

Third, many noted Yankee problems can’t be reasonably pinned on Girardi.  For instance, the Yankees’ bats are getting slow.  How is this Girardi’s fault?  The aging offense is, in fact, the fault of the ownership who has insisted on investing in quick fixes and over-priced acquisitions, rather than taking the time to develop young, unknown talent – the way championships are usually won.  The fact that Robinson Cano, Melky Cabrera, Chien-Ming Wang, and Joba Chamberlain are the only viable young players the Yanks have developed in the past 7 seasons, while the rest of the team keeps getting older, speaks volumes to the folly of this shortsighted approach. 

Another problem: inconsistent starting pitching.  Again, not really Girardi’s fault.  While I agree that Girardi has mishandled Sabathia by letting him throw 120 pitches every game (especially since Sabathia has pitched 500 innings in the last two years and is in danger of blowing his arm out if it doesn’t stop), for the most part the performances of the starters is out of Girardi’s hands.  But here again, let’s not panic.  Inconsistent pitching happens.  And that’s OK; it happens to the best pitchers in the league (e.g., Beckett, Verlander, Cliff Lee, to name a few).  So while the instinct to hunt for a single scapegoat may be tempting when things are going bad, any blame about the inconsistent starting pitching really falls on the shoulders of each respective starter.  (Admittedly, Girardi’s mishandling of the bullpen is another story.) 

Finally, there’s a lot to be said about making a commitment and having a little bit of faith.  Is our house built on a rock, or on the sand?  It’s only the first week of May; there’s still a lot of baseball to be played.  The best course of action, I would submit, is for the Yanks to commit to Girardi for the full 2009 season.  All talk of replacing him should wait until next winter. 

The only exception to this approach, as I see it, is if the team has lost faith in him.  That trumps everything.  (Indeed, Father and Little Brother gormanb saw what may have been evidence of this at last Friday’s game, but surprisingly have not yet written a blog about it … hint-hint, fellas.) 

But that’s a worst case scenario.  I don’t think we’re there yet.  And we won’t be if everyone just calms down and gives Girardi – and the Yankees – a little breathing room in this still very young 2009 season. 

The world is catching up to me.  For the last year I have been telling anyone who would listen that Joe Girardi cannot manage.  Belatedly, the multitudes are starting to agree.  The calls for Girardi’s head are building.

With everyone else beating on Girardi, I am loathe to engage in piling on.  But after watching Andy Pettitte’s performance this evening, I must comment.

The Yankee starters this week have been dodgey.  Philip Hughes pitched a shakey four innings Monday.  Joba pitched a terrible first inning on Tuesday.  Burnett did a nice job Wednesday, but Andy gave up two home runs in the first inning Thursday, and four homers in the game.

What happened to the starters?  I have a theory.

The rotation for the week was set.  Hughes was to finish the Angel series on Sunday.  Joba and AJ would pitch the Red Sox games, followed by Pettitte and Sabathia against the Rays.

But Sunday’s game was rained out.  Logically, the Yankees should have skipped Hughes (the fifth starter) and gone forward as planned.  Instead, Girardi moved everybody back a day.  The result was that all four pitchers went on five days rest instead of the usual four.

You could argue that the extra rest should help, but I have always been taught that too much rest can make a pitcher stale.  If one of the Yankee starters had had a bad game, you could discount it.  But when three out of four start off badly, the inevitable conclusion is they were stale.  Once again, everything Girardi touches goes wrong.

Worse, by moving back the rotation, Girardi insured Sabathia would not pitch against either the Red Sox or the Rays, the Yankees two biggest rivals.  So far the Yanks have played Boston and Tampa Bay ten times, and Sabathia has yet to appear against them.  His six starts have been against Baltimore, Kansas City, Cleveland, Oakland, Detroit, and Anaheim.  Did they pay $160 million dollars for this guy just to pitch him against the second division?

There is no logical explanation for Girardi’s handling of Sabathia.  His use of Sabathia is emblematic of his inability to engage in long term planning.  He is lost in the fun house.

The Yankee season is fading fast.  A change at the top is a necessity.