- Heading into the 6th week of the season, many starters who have gotten off to rough starts have bounced back nicely (Verlander, Volquez, Cliff Lee) while some pitchers have yet to hit their stride (Nolasco, Hamels, Lester).  With most owners in the need for starters, one intriguing option is Koji Uehara of the Baltimore Orioles.  Koji comes over from Japan, where he spent the past 10 seasons, where he posted a 112-62 record and 3.01 ERA.  He collected 1,376 K’s to just 206 walks.  He was the winner of Japan’s version of the Cy Young in 1999 and 2002.   As for this year, his command has been just as good so far, posting 32 K’s and just 7 walks.  If he continues to post solid K:BB ratios, Uehara could be a decent addition to any roster.

     Through the Marlins first 6 games, Bonifacio is 14 for 28, with 9 Runs, 5 RBI, and 4 SB.  Obviously he is not going to keep this pace up, and could end up being this years Chris Shelton of 2006 (9 Homers in the first 13 games of the season).  From day one in 2005, Shelton was a hitting machine, only to finish the year with 16 homers in 115 games.  He was the most added player that first week, much like Bonifacio was the first week of this season.  But if Bonafacio continues to get on base, and stay in the starting lineup, he will produce.  His track record in the minors suggests he will steal (233 Steals in 6 Minor League seasons).  He needs to work on his K:BB, and raise his on base percentage from the minors.  In a young Marlins lineup with a lot of potential, I see Bonifacio stealing 25/30 bases with regular playing time.  Hanley Ramirez says, “He is the fastest player I have ever seen.”  So pay attention to him, while he could be this years Shelton, he could also pan out to be this years Willy Taveras (keep in mind Willy stole 68 bases last year).

        Opening Day is now a week away.  Many leagues have waited until this week to take part in their drafts.  One thing many fantasy players keep an eye on are Spring Training stats.  While their are certain stats worth looking into, such as position battles (Manny Corpas vs. Huston Street), most stats should be overlooked.  Here is a look at some of last years Spring Training stats:

Dustin Pedroia – .179  1 HR  4RBI

Ivan Rodriguez – .429  6 HR  9 RBI

Ichiro – .119 AVG

    When looking at these three hitters, we can see that these stats meant nothing last year.  Dustin Pedroia was the AL MVP, batted .326 with 17 homers, while Ichiro collected his annual 200 hits and batted over .300.  As for Pudge, his 6 homers last spring were the most hit, while he finished the regular season with only 7.  

   As for the pitchers, here’s a look at 2008’s Spring Training stats:

Cliff Lee -  8.31 ERA  5 K’s  4 BB

Ricky Nolasco –  7.84 ERA

Zack Greinke –   6.43 ERA   9 K’s  5 BB 

Cole Hamels – 6.55 ERA  11 K’s  3 BB

Jake Peavy –  9.00 ERA  11 Ks  3 BB

Tim Lincecum –  9.00 ERA

      All of these pitchers were top 35 SP last year during the regular season, and should finish the year that way this year as well. 

    As far as Spring Training 2009, heres a look at a group of pitchers and their stats, through Friday March 27th:

Zack Greinke –  7.17 ERA

Matt Cain  -  6.33 ERA

Jordan Zimmerman –  3.14 ERA  20 K’s  2 BB

Brandon Webb –  5.82 ERA

James Shields –  10.45 ERA   4 BB  6 K’s

    Greinke, Cain, Webb and Shields have all struggled this spring, but will settle down and be valuable SP’s this year.  Many starting pitchers will try new pitches, or wind-ups during the spring, or just simply work on location and not be too concerned with their stats.  These 4 starters have no worries about losing a starting job, and therefore can be less worried about how they perform through March.  As far as Jordan Zimmerman, he is the talk of Spring Training this year.  With a 20/2 K:BB, he has been impressive to say the least, but remember, he is only 22 years old.  Do not go into your draft thinking he will be valuable this year.  He is their top pitching prospect, but it takes time to be a major league pitcher.  Clayton Kershaw may only be 21, but he has had the experience of the big leagues, and will be much more valuable than Zimmerman, for 2009 atleast.  Remember, with this years World Baseball Classic,  spring training had even less major league hitters than normal, so dont pay for his numbers, and dont discard proven player’s becuase they have had a bad spring.

Draft Strategy – Draft Strategy all depends on the type of league you are in, and this is as important as anything else while heading into a draft.  Player values change depending on the league settings.  If you are in a standard 5 by 5 league (Runs, HR, RBI, SB, AVG / Wins, S, K, ERA, WHIP), a players value differs from a league where more categories come into play.  For example, in a 5×5 league, 4 of the top 5 picks (back when A-Rod was healthy and considered a top 3 pick) are 5 tool players.  Hanley, Reyes, Wright and A-Rod all offer power and speed.  In this format, it is also intriguing to look at Ryan Howard.  If you take away his K’s, Howard is a top 10 pick, offering near 50 homers and 140 RBI this year.  

        Taking a closer look into league settings, if you are in a league that drafts 2 catchers, or 4 outfielders, your draft will also differ.  In a league with one catcher, you may be able to wait until the late rounds, and pick up a Ramon Hernandez, who will offer 15 homers.  However, if you are in a 10 team league with 2 catchers, taking a top 5 catcher to go along with a Hernandez may make sense.  Same thing goes with a 4 OF league.  In a standard league with 3 OF’s, I would choose a top tier OF, and then fill in 2 others late in the draft, with OF being a deep position.  Players like Jayson Werth, Corey Hart and Bobby Abreu were all 20/20 last year, and can be taken between rounds 6 and 10.  Even later than that, a Jason Kubel who hit 20 homers last year with 78 RBI went in round 22 of our draft.  

        Auction vs. Draft –  Another important aspect to take into effect is the Auction versus the Draft.   In an auction draft, every player is available to every team.  The team who puts up the most money gets the player.  When doing an auction, it is important to think about the entire draft.  Putting up big money for the top players may seem like a good idea, but you will be left with weaker players all over the field.  Participating in auction drafts takes more strategy than drafting straight up.  My advice is to know what your looking for going into the draft, and know the limit you want to spend on each position, give or take a few reaches.  For example, if you want Jose Reyes on your team, shell out a few extra bucks and go after him, after all, its a long season, and you dont want to be stuck with someone for 6 months when you could have laid on an extra $5 for someone you love.  

        Now as far as a normal draft, many people look at rankings and take them too seriously.  Most players will not end up close to their preseason ranking.  There will always be hidden gems, such as 2008’s Ryan Ludwick, and Cliff Lee.  to quote Matthew Berry, (ESPN) “if you want someone, take them.  If you want Chase Utley with your 5th pick, grab him, becuase he wont be there when that pick comes back to you.”  Rankings are only there to guide us.  I feel that tiers are more important.  If you can get a position player in the top 3 tiers of each position, you will be ok.  Remember, the most important things heading into the draft is to make sure you have done some research.  Make sure you know who is hurt, who is on the rise and decline, and who to take in the late rounds.  While the early rounds provide the big names, you will win your league in the mid to late rounds.

Where to play?

       With sites all over the internet offering Fantasy Sports, how do you know which one is for you? Four of the top sites for Fantasy Baseball are Espn.com, cbssports.com, mlb.com, and yahoo.com, the latter of the four being my personal favorite. Now lets look at which of these sites offer the most:

ESPN – Free to play, free live scoring. They offer a standard league, which is a 10 team, 5 by 5 category league, a Prize-Eligible league, and custom scoring leagues.

 CBSSports – CBSSports offers a few different choices when it comes to signing up. There is the free game, as well as 4 other versions. The Gold version costs $29.95 per team, with a $150 league champion prize. The Platinum version costs $99.95 per team, with a $600 league champion prize. The Diamond version costs $249.95 per team, with a $1,600 league championship prize. Lastly, the Double Diamond version costs $499.95 per team, with a $3,500 league champion prize. There is also a baseball commissioner league, much like the other sites, this is the league to join if you wish to create a league with a group of friends. The downside to this league, is that it costs $160.

 MLB- MLB offers a different type of fantasy baseball. The league itself is free, and you draft 10 players. It is much more simple than other sites, and is also free. You can join a public or private league, and choose a live or auto draft.

 Yahoo – As previously mentioned, this is my league of choice, as I have been playing on Yahoo for about 12 years now. I feel Yahoo’s website itself is the most simple of any other fantasy site. They offer a free game, as well as a Fantasy Plus league, which is what our group has decided to go with this year. The plus league costs $24.99 per team, or $124.99 per league. The Plus league includes live scoring (which is free at ESPN this year), a draft kit, and scouting report (all 3 a $35 value in itself) This league also includes a prize to the winner; a t-shirt or bobblehead. One of the advantages of the plus league is the ability to split the league up into divisions, which is something I am not sure any other site offers. I feel this is a pretty cool way to start rivalries from year to year, for those of you who play with the same group each year.

            All in all, each site has its share of advantages, from MLB.com being simple, to ESPN offering free prize leagues, to Yahoo being arguably the most popular year after year. Feel free to comment and add any other sites you feel compete with these.

(I will try to add a new sleeper every couple of days until the season starts, and will also be coming out with a draft strategy later this week)

Shin-Soo Choo –  Choo enters the 2009 season as the starter in RF for the Indians.   Tommy John surgery kept him out of the lineup until May last season.  All he did from May on was hit .309 with 14 HR’s, and 66 RBI.   More impressive was how Choo finished the season.  He batted .343 with 11Hr’s and 48 RBI in the second half and finished the year with a .946 OPS, ranking him ahead of Hanley Ramirez, David Wright, Josh Hamilton, and Ryan Howard in that category.  Along with that, his home/road splits and batting avg against lefties / righties splits are extremely similiar, making it more likely this was not a fluke.  Looking ahead to 2009, with a lineup that includes Grady Sizemore, Victor Martinez, Mark Derosa, Jhonny Peralta and possibly a healthy Travis Hafner, this Choo Choo  should continue on the track to production.   I project 22 HR’s, 70 RBI with a .300 avg, not bad for a late round pick. 

Ubaldo Jimenez -  Jimenez took a big step forward in 2008.  He posted a 3.99 era with 172 Stikeouts in 34 starts, winning 12.  Subtract his worst 4 starts, in which he gave up 6,6,6, and 7 earned runs, and thats a 3.08 era in 30 starts.   What excites me most are his second half numbers.  He finished the year 8-3 with a 3.68 era, 1.30 WHIP, and a 2.21 BAA.   When most pitchers come to Colorado, fantasy owners are weary of their home starts, and tend to keep them on the bench.  The opposite can be said for Jimenez.  His home / away splits from last year are as followed:

Home: 7-4   3.41 era   1.23 WHIP   .223 BAA

Road:  5-8    4.72 era    1.66 WHIP  .266 BAA

If Jimenez can figure out that its easier to pitch outside of Colorado, and get his walks down, this could be a breakout year for the youngster.   His stat line against the Netherlands on March 10th in the WBC:

4.0 IP, 2 Hits, o Runs, 0 BB, 10 K’s

Thats not a typo, 10 K’s.  Keep an eye on him the rest of spring training, and grab him in the later rounds of your draft.   You’ll be glad you did.