Astros Starting Pitching- too many “ifs”

It’s no secret that a good rotation is the key to a championship, and it pains me to say that the Astros just don’t have a good one this year.

Roy Oswalt is a legitimate ace, but his ERA has been going up and his innings pitched have been going down since 2005. Roy-O will lead the team in wins and ERA, and put up good strike out numbers, but his supporting cast does not look all that impressive.

Wandy Rodriguez is currently listed as the no. 2 starter. He pitches very well at home, posting an ERA under 3 in home games last year, but just can’t seem to put it together on the road. Last year was the young pitcher’s best year in the majors so far, and if he can build and improve upon his results he can complement Roy O nicely. He was also injured for a bit last year, but there seems to be no lingering effects.

Third in the rotation is Brandon Backe. Backe put up horrid numbers last year: a 9-14 recrod with an ERA over 6. You just can’t win games with pitching like that. However, it was the first time he had pitched over 50 innings since 2005, and last year’s 166.2 innings pitched is his most innings pitched in a season to date, with 149.1 pitched in 2005. I think Backe rebounds this year but not to the tune the Astros need him to. I expect around a .500 performance from him, with an ERA in the low 4’s. I sure hope I’m wrong though.

The 4th pitcher made his career pitching in Houston, pitching very well as a young pitcher joining the team in 1996 through his all star season in 1999 where he claimed 22 wins and an impressive 2.90 ERA. I’m talking of course about Mike Hampton. The past few years he has been with Braves and  has been plagued by injuries, but if he is healthy and can regain even 80% of his former Houston self the Astros will benefit immensely. That’s a big if though, and I remain optimistic as a fan, but realistic as a blogger. Hampton will have better numbers than Backe and probably better numbers than Wandy if he pitches the whole season. His upside is immense though, but I fear he is just too old to put together the type of season the Astros need.

For now, Brian Moehler rounds out the fifth spot. He’s 37 and has a high ERA and low strike out rates. Fernando Nieve might get a his first shot at a starting rotation gig if he impressives coaches during Spring Training. I just don’t see Moehler has a good fifth starter, but the Astros don’t seem to have many options.

So, to sum up, the rotation looks extremely questionable after Roy, but an improved Wandy and a possible resurgent Hampton could give Houston a good shot to be in contention until the trade deadline, where they make a move to grab a solid starting pitcher.

Houston has historically been a second half team, so if we can make it to the break with a decent record and pick up a solid pitcher, the Astros could make a slim run at the wildcard.

View AstroGraham's Profile      Subscribe via RSS